Caving under the ?new normal? how will we know when ?

Ian P

Administrator
Staff member
Just some idle musings.

Currently we cannot go caving. (For all the right reasons)

The BCA have told us, CNCC have closed the permit booking scheme, mountain rescue have told us (CRO keep repeating the message), the government have said no unnecessary travel. All valid and understandable.

As time moves on and we begin to move to a ?new normal? how are we going to agree on when and how we can resume caving activities.

Assuming the ?old normal? is 18months - 2 years away (based on nothing other than a guess).

Also the government is never going to give us direct guidance relating to caving, I assume that it will be up-to individual sports organisations to set out their own ?guidelines? regarding social distancing etc. Probably easier for fishing than the likes of rugby 😱  Also we need to be mindful of local residents in the caving areas.

Hopefully things will become obvious as time moves on and we can eventually get underground when it is safe to do so.

Ian
 

crickleymal

New member
I would assume that if sports like football are allowed then caving might be. I don't mean football in an empty stadium as is being proposed, I mean being allowed to have a kick around with friends.  Or perhaps when pubs reopen.
 

Minion

Member
I suppose it also depends on the nature of the planned excursion.

Number of people, level of risk, requirements for travelling long distances etc.

From a personal perspective, a low risk dig within say 5-10 miles of my house with a handful of close caving friends might be allowed in the short-medium term.

Long drive to Yorkshire for a knees up and a bit of caving, 12-18 months away, maybe more??
 

ChrisJC

Well-known member
I believe the lockdown is simply to ensure the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed.
Therefore, as the government gets confidence that the NHS is coping, it will want to turn the economic tap back on as quickly as it dare.
Of course, controlling 70million people is quite difficult (although fear of death has worked quite well), so it's got to be very careful (and cautious) letting us return to normal.

And bearing in mind that we will all catch it at some point

I suspect it will be our judgement in the end, when we are ready to take the risk (knowing the NHS has a bed for us), we'll go for it, catch the disease, hopefully survive, and then go caving!

Chris.
 

pwhole

Well-known member
I suspect the NHS is only coping because we're having a lockdown - I personally doubt it will be able to cope if the lockdown is lifted. Watching the BBC News tonight I got the distinct impression they were 'hinting' it's gonna be over soon - so much so I switched to ITN, which I find slightly less slavish over government pronouncements. In fact I'm watching it more and more - it's the 'forgotten' news programme. Personally I think it's too early to relax much, partly based on the fact that this government are incompetent liars and partly on the general unhealthiness of so many people, and the lack of commonsense generally.

The need to earn money, as we all know, is a powerful factor on the other side - though 'need' and 'want' are very separate things, so it needs to be very clear who 'needs' to work and who just can't find anything better to do with their time as they have plenty of money. And ideally the ones who need to work should probably get more money so they either don't need to work as much, or at least feel more valued if they do. I've read so many articles from journalists and columnists saying how 'fortunate' or 'lucky' they are to be able to - well, write articles about how fortunate or lucky they are. Ah-um.

But if we all catch it at some point, it's likely there could be half a million people will die from it, if it is around 1% mortality rate - it just depends how 'spread out' folks can take the deaths. After all, it's not normally a news item that very ill people die in hospital if there's no 'blame' attached to anyone, and we lose 500,000 people a year. I was intrigued as to why there's been no mention of flu this year - as in, who's got that instead of coronavirus, as there's generally around 8000 a year die from that on an 'average' year. It turns out it's been a very quiet season for flu - these reports are issued every two weeks, and it's interesting to read the ones just as Covid-19 is starting to bite:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

I think the issue with caving is quite simple - most trips can probably be socially-distanced quite easily. For example, our main project is literally defined by rebelay separation which is maintained throughout (and as long as folks don't cough on the anchors!). It's only the dig face where it would get tricky. But most rescues couldn't be socially-distanced at all, and if SRT or tight stuff is involved it's almost guaranteed to get up close and personal. Wearing masks isn't gonna work if it's strenuous - I've done a 90m shaft in a FFP3 mask and I thought I was going to die of suffocation, and that was ignoring the sweat build-up which blocks the filter.

So the dilemma is: 'When is it safe to be rescued?' really. Or: ' When are CROs prepared to risk themselves beyond the normal caving risks?' No pressure  :-\
 

alastairgott

Well-known member
Or when will we not be lambasted by the general public of being irresponsible, insensitive, thrill seeking and self centred. Because I can see that headline already if the was even a rescue from base camp chamber in giants. Never mind garlands pot which needs 70feet of rope to rig.
 

Fjell

Well-known member
I remain moderately convinced our family had it in Dec. Two weeks of strange non-flu symptoms, no aching joints, fever up and down, very bad cough to the point of one hospital admission for inability to breathe. Half a dozen people all the same. Maybe they need to look harder.

Chris Whitty in his Gresham lecture last week was not overly sanguine about a vaccine turning up that quickly, so unless you want to bin caving for a year or two some pencil sharpening is required on the actual risk. Cycling, something which really does cause a lot of accidents, is already in full swing up here in the Dales. I don?t see climbing as having any additional risk to cycling including for rescue, caving a bit more maybe - but is 2-3 incidents a year worth stopping the sport for? Are CRO not going to turn out to rescue people benighted on the Waterfalls Walk any more?
 
I think the pub comment is apt, or when we are allowed to travel further than "local" for our exercise. Once eithe rof those is OK, then I think caving is on. But, as per Mr Gott's comment, for the love of our hobby, can everyone try and avoid needing a rescue for the forseeable!
 

ChrisJC

Well-known member
pwhole has perhaps a good point - CRO.

Maybe CRO should be the gatekeeper. When they deem that they are prepared to resume rescuing activities, then we can resume caving activities.

And that is a personal decision for them. It might be that some of them are prepared to resume earlier than others, so as soon as enough are prepared to form the first rescue team, then we are good to go. But not before.

Chris.
 

mikem

Well-known member
Doesn't compare with cycling, as even a badly injured rider generally only needs a single 2 person ambulance to sort them out - although rapid response or helicopter may be involved. A similar situation in an awkward cave could require hundreds of rescuers - so also consider where you should head, once total lockdown is over.
 

Fjell

Well-known member
But climbing on a crag is little different to cycling. And cycling has something like 20,000 accidents a year. So which will load the NHS?
I have done a great deal of caving where there is no rescue, so I personally am OK with no callouts. But others are not.
 

PeteHall

Moderator
ChrisJC said:
pwhole has perhaps a good point - CRO.

Maybe CRO should be the gatekeeper. When they deem that they are prepared to resume rescuing activities, then we can resume caving activities.

And that is a personal decision for them. It might be that some of them are prepared to resume earlier than others, so as soon as enough are prepared to form the first rescue team, then we are good to go. But not before.

Chris.

If there was a rescue in my locality and I was called on, I would go, whatever the current situation with coronavirus. If someone is in need of help now, that trumps the risk of maybe getting ill later.

That's not to say I'd encourage anyone to put themselves at risk of needing a rescue, just that I don't think it is right for an emergency service (voluntary or not) to be publically open or closed. Each incident needs assessing based on the circumstances.

If someone is a knob and puts others at risk, it just needs to be made very clear that this is not acceptable, but I don't think you can just leave them to die, if it came to it.

CRO should be advising people not to put themselves at risk of rescue,  but should not be asked to comment on whether or not they are "open" to help someone in need.
 

nearlywhite

Active member
Fjell said:
I remain moderately convinced our family had it in Dec. Two weeks of strange non-flu symptoms, no aching joints, fever up and down, very bad cough to the point of one hospital admission for inability to breathe. Half a dozen people all the same. Maybe they need to look harder.

Non flu symptoms? What like a cough and a fever? I suppose it couldn't be any number of FAR more common things like tonsillitis (which frequently requires hospital transmission), glandular fever, or an Upper respiratory tract infection.

And as for caving without rescue - it's pretty hard not to. Someone may know where you're going and may get worried about you being overdue even though you're not (this has happened to me... Sorry NWCRO).

As for who should give the community the green light? Local rescue teams - won't be till the government relaxes things.

I don't think it's actually going to be 'that' long - it may well be episodic, but the health service seems to be resuming function in several areas again so there may be some grounds for optimism.

Or it may be them adjusting to the new normal I guess.
 

Fjell

Well-known member
Roche are about to to get their antibody test approved it seems (already has in the US). That should probably help sort out what the actual situation is.
Just been delivering to the old folks and almost got totalled by a cycling team. Lucky escape that.
 

Ed

Active member
mikem said:
Doesn't compare with cycling, as even a badly injured rider generally only needs a single 2 person ambulance to sort them out - although rapid response or helicopter may be involved. A similar situation in an awkward cave could require hundreds of rescuers - so also consider where you should head, once total lockdown is over.

Or does it :
  https://www.uwfra.org.uk/incidents-full.php?thisincident=127

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/crime/cyclist-killed-crash-notorious-yorkshire-dales-accident-black-spot-dibbles-bridge-2547299

About 6 ambulances involved for 1 person at Dibble Bridge as HART team involved
 

Pitlamp

Well-known member
I once nearly binned it on a push bike, hurtling down that long curving bend into Ingleton between Storrs Common and the old police station. There was a bit of gravel on the road and it caused me to get a front wheel wobbler - I was all over the place. It's a good job there was no car coming up the hill at the time. How I didn't faceplant the wall on the left or end up sliding along the tarmac I'll never know. I never really enjoyed cycling after that and got rid of the bike when I moved to a house with no room for it soon afterwards.

This (and other close shaves beforehand - mainly not my fault) convinced me that caving is far safer.
 

Alex

Well-known member
Yes I find that ironic Pitlamp, the government seems to be forcing me to do a far more dangerous sport to keep fit (cycling) where as my normal sport is far safer. I can't do much running because of cavers knees and walking does not cut it as far as fitness goes, which I need to maintain to stay healthy and be ready for any call outs.

But I doubt the government had our unique circumstances in hand.

As for rescue, yes I would be willing to go out even now. The main issue with rescuing is lack of team members, due to some living with vulnerable relatives or some on the front-line in the NHS and would therefore put the team at risk on a call out. So I can imagine any rescue is going to be slower and take longer, so bare that in mind at least. Bring enough stuff to keep yourself comfortable underground as it may be a long wait!
 

Badlad

Administrator
Staff member
At the best of times caving appears, to the uninitiated, to be a crazy dangerous activity.  Some in authority would never advise us to ever return underground ever.  We need to take a sensible approach and look for consensus with partner organisations and at how other similar activities are being advised.  That is certainly what I will be doing as CNCC access officer in the Dales. 

It is my understanding that CRO is open for business now although obviously advising against caving at the moment.  I, and I'm sure others, have responded to the cavers list that we are available.  For any rescue organisation there are problems with normal function at this time and no one wants to see a call out pop up on their phone.  That is clear but there will come a time when we can go underground again and I'm sure there will be a lot of discussion about it.

One point of interest might be whether we can only go caving if we have a fully functioning cave rescue service.  It's not something that normally occurs to me when planning a trip.
 

SamT

Moderator
Borrowed from another forum I participate in, but seems to be applicable to this discussion... pretty eyewatering statistics.

I think whats needed is a huge dollop of perspective.  Give it a couple of weeks, and I reckon nipping out for a quick trip somewhere, will not invoke the wrath of the authorities.  Just keep it low profile and don't have an accident.  ;)  Over the coming months, the world will start turning again and I'm sure we can go about our much miss-maligned and misunderstood hobby. 

This isn't posted to make light of tragic stats nor is it made in the spirit of trying to 'win' any argument. But it was pretty eye-opening to me to find out today from a report in Road cc that deaths of cyclists during the first month of lockdown are over 300% higher than the annual average. 20 deaths during April..  :eek:  :eek:
That's eye-watering. The report lists 15 deaths, then I scrolled down and read the comments  and people have pointed out a further 5 deaths with links to newspaper reports for each.. Crazy.
Deaths are also over 300% higher than the average for April (i.e. April is not on average a bad month) with previous Aprils having, at most, 9 deaths and, at least, 4 deaths.
I instinctively assumed it must be newbie older bikers having heart-attacks. But that isn't it, see below, virtually all collisions involving other vehicle. I also assumed the deaths would mostly be cyclists in London - nope, nationwide on all sorts of roads.
Report here:  https://road.cc/content/news/cyclist-deaths-during-lockdown-2x-average-time-year-272987
Follow up: https://road.cc/content/news/15-cyclists-killed-during-lockdown-what-we-know-so-far-273017

Applying a hierarchy of risk model from near-miss, up through minor accident, major accident and fatality you can begin to imagine how many minor, serious and v.serious injuries there would have been in addition to 20 fatalities. It makes the concerns of MR look a bit trivial in comparison. The relevance to the whole debate around risk of accident, impact on healthcare and risk of transmission to healthcare workers is obvious.

Can people really claim that climbing or hill-walking is, per head, anywhere near this level of impact on the health service and risk of transmission to healthcare workers? What are the per head stats for climbing?


Grim stats:

26 March(link is external) ? A male cyclist aged in his 80s died at Addenbrooke?s Hospital in Cambridge the day after a collision involving a van on the city?s Newmarket Road at the roundabout with Barnwell Road.  No arrest has reportedly been made.

26 March (link is external)? A male cyclist was killed in Moira, near Lisburn, Northern Ireland, after a collision involving a SEAT Leon car. The driver was not reported to have been arrested. The victim's age was not disclosed.

1 April (link is external)? A male cyclist aged 50 died in hospital from injuries he sustained in a collision involving a van in Alford, Lincolnshire, on the morning of 23 March ? later that day, the UK-wide lockdown would be announced. There are no reports of any arrest being made.

3 April(link is external) ? xx xx, aged 57, died in hospital from injuries sustained earlier that day as a result of a collision involving a tractor near Balsall Common, Solihull. The driver was reported to be assisting police with their enquiries.

7 April (link is external)? Metropolitan Police intelligence analyst xx xx, aged 25, was killed in a collision involving two other vehicles in Worcester Park, south west London, as she rode to work. No arrests have been reported.

8 April(link is external) ? A male cyclist aged in his 60s died as a result of a collision involving a van in the village of Compton near Guildford, Surrey. The driver of the van was treated for minor injuries. There are no reports of any arrest.

10 April (link is external)? xx xx, aged 36, was killed in a collision involving a car near Menai Bridge, Anglesey. There are no reports of an arrest having been made.

11 April (link is external)? Cyclist xx xx, aged 40, died in hospital in Cardiff from injuries he sustained the previous day in a collision involving a Peugeot 208 car in Ebbw Vale. Police arrested the driver of the vehicle at the scene on suspicion of causing serious injury by dangerous driving. He was subsequently released while investigations continue.

13 April (link is external)? A male cyclist aged in his 50s died in hospital in Surrey following a collision the previous day in Sunbury. The driver of the vehicle involved, a Mercedes CLK coup?, was arrested at the scene on suspicion of causing serious injury by dangerous driving and was subsequently released under investigation.

15 April(link is external) ? xx xx, aged 67, was killed in Port Talbot, South Wales. There was no report of the driver of the vehicle involved in the incident, a Ford Fiesta, being arrested.

16 April(link is external) ? A cyclist died at the scene of a collision involving a lorry at Market Deeping, Northamptonshire. No arrests have been reported.

17 April (link is external)? An 18-year-old male cyclist died on the A1086 between Blackhall and Horden, County Durham. Police said: ?His death is not being treated as suspicious and a file is being prepared for the coroner.?

18 April (link is external)? xx xx, 44, died in the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, die to injuries sustained in a collision involving a Fiat Punto car in Tamworth, Staffordshire on 15 April. No arrests have been made.

20 April (link is external)? xx xx, aged 80 and a keen cyclist and triathlete, was killed in Hatfield, Hertfordshire. A 23-year-old woman from Hertford was arrested at the scene on suspicion of causing death by dangerous driving. She has since been released under investigation.

22 April (link is external)? An unnamed male cyclist, aged 55, died at Dibbles Bridge, North Yorkshire. There was not report of another vehicle being involved and police have appealed for witnesses. The Yorkshire Post reports that two other cyclists have been killed at the same location in recent years, both after being thrown over the bridge parapet onto the riverbed below.
 
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