Theories on the origin of Coronavirus (split from Is it OK to go Caving)

[mikem]

[gmod]Discussions of the origins of Coronavirus split from "Is it OK to go Caving"[/gmod]

As Pete says, most bat borne diseases are passed to humans in caves by wading through their faeces & disturbing the dry material into dust that we breathe in.

There's also rumours circulating that the Wuhan research station was trying to combine a Coronavirus with an immune-deficiency virus - which would give you something very similar to what we have now...

 

[PeteHall]

There's also rumours circulating that the Wuhan research station was trying to combine a Coronavirus with an immune-deficiency virus - which would give you something very similar to what we have now...

Whether or not it is ever proven, all the anecdotal evidence does suggest that the virus came from the Wuhan lab, not a jump from one species to another in the wild/ wet market. Either way, the risk of catching it from UK bat is zero.

 

[JoshW]

There's also rumours circulating that the Wuhan research station was trying to combine a Coronavirus with an immune-deficiency virus - which would give you something very similar to what we have now...

Whether or not it is ever proven, all the anecdotal evidence does suggest that the virus came from the Wuhan lab, not a jump from one species to another in the wild/ wet market. Either way, the risk of catching it from UK bat is zero.

The only "evidence" I've seen that suggests it came from the Wuhan lab is from certifiable nutcases on youtube. If there's any evidence from a respected source, I'd be willing to take a look.

 

[PeteHall]

I used the term "anecdotal evidence" not "evidence". It is very likely that there will never be conclusive evidence one way or another.

I am certainly not one for conspiracy theories, however in this case the coincidence of a new bat coronavirus, breaking out in a market right next to a lab doing experiments on bat coronaviruses, is statistically improbable, to say the least. Perhaps we should start another thread int he "idle chat" board for conspiracy theories about the origins of coronavirus 

Whatever your view, the origin of the virus has absolutely no impact on caving in the UK, other than to say that it is statistically impossible (or at least very close to impossible) that you will catch it from a bat while caving int he UK.

 

[mikem]

Although the very reason there is a Coronavirus lab there is because of the prevalence of it in the local population.

 

[Speleotron]

Although the very reason there is a Coronavirus lab there is because of the prevalence of it in the local population.

Citation needed!

 

[andrewmcleod]

I used the term "anecdotal evidence" not "evidence". It is very likely that there will never be conclusive evidence one way or another.

There is quite good evidence in that DNA studies support a natural (i.e. random and disorganized) jump of the species barrier rather than an engineered virus.

I am certainly not one for conspiracy theories, however in this case the coincidence of a new bat coronavirus, breaking out in a market right next to a lab doing experiments on bat coronaviruses, is statistically improbable, to say the least.

When you say 'statistically improbable', on what numbers are basing these statistics? Or is an (uneducated) guess?
Coincidences happen all the time; in fact the _absence_ of coincidences is statistically improbable.
https://xkcd.com/882/

 

[pwhole]

That link is wonderful

 

[mikem]

Speleotron (of bats):
www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-complicated-origins.html

 

[Speleotron]

Ah OK I thought you meant humans! However, that lab was working with bat-like coronaviruses in the years before this outbreak, so it's not implausible that somebody dropped a petridish. Here is a quote from a 2017 article about the lab in Nature:

"But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. ?Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,? he says."

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

 

[al]

An open culture?? That really would be a good idea!

 

[mikem]

US security services reported no panic in communications amongst Chinese officialdom to suggest it had escaped by mistake...

 

[cavetroll]

US security services reported no panic in communications amongst Chinese officialdom to suggest it had escaped by mistake...

... to suggest they were aware it had escaped by mistake

 

[Duck ditch]

Is this lab escape conspiracy really gaining credence? 
Trump is pushing it for political reasons but I don?t hear many other voices. Trumps conspiracies are too numerous to mention. New ones added weekly. 
We may never find out with certainty where covid 19 came from.
It took 12 years to decide SARS jumped from bat to Civet Cats and that evidence isn?t That strong. MERS started in Saudi Arabia so I?m doubting we will find out how that began.
Before Labs existed we had pandemics.
This Covid 19 probably came from bats.  Then onto another species.  I?m hoping pangolins and the maybe the world will condemn the trade in them.  Seems reasonable to me after all coronavirus is natural.
Of course China needs to be criticised for keeping it quiet but today we need to work together as a world.  The leading scientists are suggesting it isn?t going to go away easily.
Ps.  Putin died some time ago.  His double has contracted Covid 19.  They are searching for the next lookalike.

 

[Speleotron]

I'm not saying it did come from a lab, I couldn't know that. I'm just saying that it is a possibility and seems more likely than most conspiracy theories:

1) There is a lab in the city where the outbreak started that works with bat coronaviruses.

2) Other virus labs in China have previously released the SARS virus by accident.

3) Many scientists expressed their concern to journals such as Nature about this lab in Wuhan.

4) RNA analysis suggests it isn't a man-made virus but this doesn't mean it wasn't a natural virus that was being studied and was released (like the SARS virus was released from other labs from time to time).

I agree that people shouldn't use the lab escape theory to divert attention from our poor response to the virus. However, Trump says so many things that statistically they won't all be wrong!

PS in a way it's worse if it came form the wet market because the wet markets in China and in Wuhan have been re-opened! Get ready for SARS-Cov-3 in a few years!

 

[Duck ditch]

Sure. I don?t disagree with any of your post speleotron.
What about the USA seeding wuhan to try and ruin the Chinese economy. That sounds possible.  Economy is everything and trump hates China.
Trump scatter gunning conspiracies and getting one right? Possibly.  Can anyone name one.
Another virus could happen tomorrow certainly. It could easily be worse. Mixing species from different continents can?t be good surely.  Wet markets are everywhere. Yes this all all my opinion.
Conspiracies are weird.

 

[Speleotron]

Well if it was a US bio attack it's backfired in a big way. I never understood bioweapons to be honest as they would surely go all the way round the world and get the country who used it to. Unless you secretly vaccinate your population but you'd never get away with it. I think the accidental release of a natural virus from that lab is the only one of the conspiracy theories that isn't implausible and it has plenty of historical precedent.

 

[PeteHall]

[gmod]I've split out discussions on the origin of Coronavirus as there is clearly plenty of mileage here.[/gmod]

 

[Duck ditch]

It fits the conspiracy?s narrative that Obama funded Wuhan Labs to a tune of I think the last sum was 3.7mllion.  It doesn?t fit the conspiracy narrative that trump kept funding it for the last 3 years.
It doesn?t fit the conspiracy that the amount of money isn?t correct or that they were doing useful work on how coronavirus.
Trump pulls the funding and spreads the conspiracy.  That?s Trump being strong.  Also defunding WHO even stronger.
So to continue my conspiracy. Trump pulls out of Wuhan Labs in April.  As it?s becoming increasingly clear that a US technician deliberately set the virus free back in November.  Now the US can now claim it?s all the Chinese lab technicians fault.  Also pulls out of WHO because Trump is dreading that the truth comes out and he can now claim WHO is a discredited organisation
I don?t believe this by the way.  Swap Trump for Obama and the conspiracy theory sites might run with it. 

Try this.  John McDonald was interviewed recently.  Behind him in his bookcase were several books on the Holocaust and books written by holocaust deniers.  I told this to someone who Instantly said that it proves the anti Semitic tendencies in the Labour Party. 
Of course it?s a mean trick because the bookcase in question belongs to Michael Gove.  If it was McDonald?s we wouldn?t have heard the last of it.

Conspiracy theories are weird. 

 

[mikem]

Which is one reason why Occam's razor is still used - the most straightforward solution is probably the correct one.