Over 70's to stay in for 3 months!

[Groundhog]

Any thoughts on this? What would be wrong with going out and simply avoiding other people? I can see no reason not to go for a hike in the hills especially if I choose somewhere quiet. One of my other passions is fishing. Especially wild sea fishing on lonely storm beaches. Can't see any reason not to do that.
I will however not be going in any pubs!

 

[mikem]

They are assuming that anyone over that age isn't capable of getting any further than the shops...

 

[Laurie]

My wife and I are in our mid 70s.
My wife and I have no living relatives in this country.
My wife is in hospital with a broken pelvis.
So, what about visiting.........?

 

[Katie]

I think they are just assuming everyone solely inhabits crowded urban areas.
The advice for anyone self - isolating for any reason is don't go for a walk. Now I can understand going for a walk in a busy city park is a bad idea. But I live in a rural area and hardly ever see another human when out with the dog. and If I do it is very easy to give them a 100m radius! So surely not all walks need avoiding if self isolating - especially if you are doing it for reasons such as a recent trip abroad etc, as opposed to showing any symptoms.

 

[Alex]

I heard this morning on radio 4, that you should still go out walking the dogs and for a hike, unless you have symptoms, just avoid crowded areas.  (No idea where that stands with caving of course, solo trips?)

 

[Graigwen]

I don't see a problem.

I will be penned inside a house in Kent, but using a pay at the pump garage I can still do 400 round trips to spend one day digging at Twll Echel or Jackdaws.

I suppose my bladder will have to last 200 miles.

.

 

[royfellows]

I am 75 and my attitude to it is simple, the second word is "off".

 

[mikem]

I suppose my bladder will have to last 200 miles.

Can't you use a bush?

 

[Graigwen]

I suppose my bladder will have to last 200 miles.

Can't you use a bush?

Not on the A2; M25 and M4 !!!

.

 

[Fjell]

Booth is swabbing down the card reader after every use. And while I was standing there he was told not to touch Booths cards any more - he had to type the number in.
And their cafe has locked up all the cutlery and sugar, you have to ask nicely.
There was a palpable air of latent menace.

 

[The Old Ruminator]

Still going caving tomorrow with the other old gits. No way I could stay in for months.

 

[Bob Mehew]

As I see it, there are three reasons for people to follow the guidance.  The first is to minimise the risk of you getting the corona virus.  The second is to minimise the risk to those who live in the same house as you, by you giving them the virus.  The third and perhaps more important is to minimise the demand on the NHS so that others who do get seriously ill because they have to expose themselves to the risk of getting the virus, do not find themselves able to get the level of help they need because you are already occupying the resource, be it bed, ventilator or just nursing time. 

After all who is the more deserving, the doctor who has fallen ill whilst treating patients or the person who caught the virus by unnecessarily exposing themselves to the virus? 

And yes I know it is a loaded question but it is not just your life at risk.

And to answer the inevitable question, no doubt I will not be strictly keeping  to the guidance.

 

[speliox]

Rather selfish attitude from Old Ruminator and Roy Fellows don?t you think? F**k off!

 

[darren]

This probably isn't going to help my reputation as being a pedant who reads background research, But here is the media notes from of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[mikem]

They are not very sociable people...

 

[mrodoc]

Writing as a doctor  who has been expecting something like this to happen for  years and is in the firing line like everybody else, I would say OR is not being unreasonable. The tiny group we are in go digging in isolation anyway and from the moment I leave my home  to the time I enter the cave I only see about 3 other people. He also goes walking, again with one other person. Us pensioners need to keep up a level of fitness to fend off illness.  The bug is out there and it won't go away. Ultimately a vaccine, like the annual flu jab, will help but that is some time away. Other viruses will turn up in future. This one has been successful by having a long incubation period and a relatively low mortality rate enabling it to spread rapidly and surreptitiously.  However relatively low mortality is a deceptive term as even at  1% it has a massive socio-economic effect if it affects most of the population. That is why there is so much governmental concern.

 

[mikem]

That 1% is not spread evenly though (from Imperial College document):

Age-group  % symptomatic cases      % hospitalised cases    Infection Fatality Ratio
  (years)    requiring hospitalisation    requiring critical care
00 to 09                0.1%                            5.0%                          0.002%
10 to 19                0.3%                            5.0%                          0.006%
20 to 29                1.2%                            5.0%                          0.03%
30 to 39                3.2%                            5.0%                          0.08%
40 to 49                4.9%                            6.3%                          0.15%
50 to 59                10.2%                          12.2%                          0.60%
60 to 69                16.6%                          27.4%                          2.2%
70 to 79                24.3%                          43.2%                          5.1%
80+                      27.3%                          70.9%                          9.3%

I don't believe these figures are totally accurate (as majority of very young will be taken to hospital to be checked out, whilst more in the middle groups won't be), but it does put you "in the ballpark".

 

[The Old Ruminator]

Statistics prove nothing. Let's say the 70s have a mortality ratio of %5 how many in that demographic have serious underlying health issues which add to the mortality rate far more than just age does. Keep fit and active. Don't smoke or drink and keep weight down. Perhaps that nasty person who said FO needs to get his head in order. Thanks to MRODOC for the support.




GONE CAVING -----

 

[Pitlamp]

OR makes a very important point here. Smokers; I realise just how difficult it is - but if you've been thinking of trying to give up smoking, there's probably never been a better time to give it a serious go. The healthier we all are, the less severe the results of an infection by that virus, or so it would seem.

 

[kay]

As I see it, there are three reasons for people to follow the guidance.  The first is to minimise the risk of you getting the corona virus.  The second is to minimise the risk to those who live in the same house as you, by you giving them the virus.  The third and perhaps more important is to minimise the demand on the NHS so that others who do get seriously ill because they have to expose themselves to the risk of getting the virus, do not find themselves able to get the level of help they need because you are already occupying the resource, be it bed, ventilator or just nursing time. 

Fourth reason, as the Imperial College paper illustrates, is that demand for ICU beds will be so great that only those regarded as having a good chance of recovery will be given one, and that probably won't include 75 year olds, no matter how fit for their age they are. So whatever strategy you work out for yourself needs to be on the basis that you're going to have to recover on your own should you get it.