TheBitterEnd said:
The comments above seem to indicate that numbers are steady or on the up in recent years but I still wonder if anyone has analysed numbers going back to say the 70's?
I'm sure nobody has, it would be interesting to do - properly.
TheBitterEnd said:
On the number of cavers vs. numbers actually in the cave, Gollum blames mountain bikes but in general I think there could be a point there. People interested in "open air recreation" are probably more likely to pursue a range of activities. The number of Canoers/Kayakers seems to have shot up and most cavers I know are active in at least one other outdoors pursuit (climbing, kayaking, MTB, cycling, running seem to be the most common).
One, quite persuasive, argument is that fewer people have the all-encompassing attitude towards caving that is found in the dedicated Mendip digger, for example. I doubt anyone ever saw J-Rat on a mountain bike.
TheBitterEnd said:
Also it now being asserted that there are no "young" people coming into caving. I seem to see a wide range of ages so again, is there any evidence for this? I guess it is probably much harder to find numbers by age group?
Given time and a following wind I should be able to analyse the outcomes of those who have come into caving through my (university) club over the years. Not sure I'll be able to find the time, but I imagine that other clubs would also have the raw data available.
Glenn's point about the high churn figure is an interesting one. I could hazard a few guesses as to why that might be, but it would help (no Glenn, I'm not asking, I don't have time to take the research on) to see how that figure changes across time and to see what other factors it might be related to.
It is worth pointing out, however, that those who only cave once or twice with a professional instructor will not figure on BCA's radar whereas those introduced by a club, but who stay not much longer, may well do.