Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?

Mrs Trellis

Mrs Trellis

Well-known member
BBC Rado4's "More or Less" final programme in this extended (by popular request) series has answers through proper analysis of all the data available. Those who follow the programme know it as an essential fact-driven guide to statistics.

Here it is:- https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000kfpy
 
Pegasus

Pegasus

Administrator
Staff member
Thanks for this, I've heard folks saying how good the series is.  Will have a listen now  (y)
 
mch

mch

Member
Mrs Trellis said:
BBC Rado4's "More or Less" final programme in this extended (by popular request) series has answers through proper analysis of all the data available. Those who follow the programme know it as an essential fact-driven guide to statistics.

Here it is:- https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000kfpy
Click to expand...

When I was young (long long ago) I worked for the Midlands Electricity Board (remember Electricity Boards?) and was involved inter alia with the production of financial statistics. We had a sign on the office wall which read "Statistics are like bikinis, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital!". Always worth bearing this in mind when anyone puts forward statistics to prove  a particular point.
 
Mrs Trellis

Mrs Trellis

Well-known member
That's what the programme series does - presents by mathematically rigorous analysis the inferences to be drawn from the statistics available.
 
M

mikem

Well-known member
So, the big difference seems to be that whilst other countries were dealing with localised outbreaks, the UK had at least 1300 importers of the virus & it was already much more widespread than the Imperial College modelling, that original decisions were being based on...
 
Mrs Trellis

Mrs Trellis

Well-known member
It seems to me that:-
a) The Imperial modellers overestimated the gap in days between the Italian stage and the UK stage.
b) That the virus spread to here from three EU countries by arrivals to the UK rather than from China. This has only become known in May/June by DNA analysis.
c) The NHS deliberately returned elderley residents to care homes without testing them.  Care home deaths form roughly one third of all notified Covid deaths.
d) England's connected urban areas are more difficult to contain infection spread for several reaons. Too many people to test every day basically to identify local hotspots.
e) England's demographic and underlying health problems contributed a great deal to the excess death toll in England.
 
JoshW

JoshW

Well-known member
Mrs Trellis said:
It seems to me that:-
a) The Imperial modellers overestimated the gap in days between the Italian stage and the UK stage.
b) That the virus spread to here from three EU countries by arrivals to the UK rather than from China. This has only become known in May/June by DNA analysis.
c) The NHS deliberately returned elderley residents to care homes without testing them.  Care home deaths form roughly one third of all notified Covid deaths.
d) England's connected urban areas are more difficult to contain infection spread for several reaons. Too many people to test every day basically to identify local hotspots.
e) England's demographic and underlying health problems contributed a great deal to the excess death toll in England.
Click to expand...

I came from a country that had a very effective test, track and trace program from the outset, and the UK just hasn't had one at all.

If you can catch the initial 'spreaders' then you'll curtail the early flow. The lack of testing availability early on was embarrassing, and the "deliberate" delay of track and trace absolutely horrendous.
 
Mrs Trellis

Mrs Trellis

Well-known member
Too many people to test daily. In the UK track and trace is problematic with people zealously guarding their data privacy. Also the UK, in particularly in England have been very undisciplined during lock down.  Too many flocking to Barnard Castle.
 
JoshW

JoshW

Well-known member
Mrs Trellis said:
Too many people to test daily. In the UK track and trace is problematic with people zealously guarding their data privacy. Also the UK, in particularly in England have been very undisciplined during lock down.  Too many flocking to Barnard Castle.
Click to expand...

Barnard Castle tourism board must be rubbing their hands together. First place I'm going to once I feel confident to traverse the length of the country!
 
AR

AR

Well-known member
Mrs Trellis said:
It seems to me that:-
a) The Imperial modellers overestimated the gap in days between the Italian stage and the UK stage.
b) That the virus spread to here from three EU countries by arrivals to the UK rather than from China. This has only become known in May/June by DNA analysis.
Click to expand...

I suspect there was some transmission direct from China. My niece had what she thought was a bad cold in February, but with a loss of smell and taste. She works at a hotel in Cambridge which has a lot of Chinese customers - obviously, without testing to see if she's got antibodies and these show signs of having come from exposure to the initial Chinese variant you can't say for certain but the chain of causality is definitely there.

On a slightly related note, if you want to read something really depressing, this Atlantic  article looks at America's national response (or lack thereof), and how it was utterly avoidable.... https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/how-white-house-coronavirus-response-went-wrong/613591/
 
F

Fjell

Well-known member
UK airlines carried 150 million passengers a year, 3 million a week. The UK had a test capacity of 30,000 a week in March and a few hundred contact tracers in PHE and local councils. Most of that test capacity was immediately needed in hospitals. Apparently most cases arrived in early March within a week or two, so there was no way of stopping thousands of cases, which instantly blew track and trace out of the window. Especially as it was mostly younger people who would be asymptomatic to a significant degree.
All of western Europe had the same problem at the same time. Eastern Europe didn?t, central Europe in the middle.
If you are an island in the Pacific with a low population, things might be different.
 
M

mikem

Well-known member
a) the Imperial model assumed starting from a small number of cases, not the significant amount that actually arrived almost simultaneously - so, it didn't stand any chance of being accurate.

b) whether cases did come in directly from China, or not, they were not the main reason for the spread of the virus.

c) percentage of cases in care homes was similar, or lower than several other Western European countries, so were they also returning cases to care homes, or is some other factor more significant here?
 
andrewmcleod

andrewmcleod

Well-known member
Almost no-one in China has had the virus (in percentage terms). Even back in March (maybe even February) the worst-hit European countries probably had a much higher incidence than China. If it wasn't for China being the source of the outbreak, based on the current incidence we would be considering China as one of the safest countries in the world.

Treating every Chinese person as if they have just flown in from Wuhan is not only borderline racist, it's also sloppy maths.
 
M

mikem

Well-known member
Nobody knows what percentage of the Chinese population were infected. Virtually accusing someone of racism based on a statement of facts (no matter how sloppy) isn't helpful.
 
B

Boy Engineer

Active member
Talking of Barnard Castle. And very nice it is too. Can?t turn it for some reason.
 

Attachments

  • CE2C76F2-9CB3-4962-9400-90A125992CEA.jpeg
    CE2C76F2-9CB3-4962-9400-90A125992CEA.jpeg
    208.7 KB · Views: 123
F

Fulk

Well-known member
Here you go ? maybe!!

 

Attachments

  • CE2C76F2-9CB3-4962-9400-90A125992CEA.jpeg_thumb.png
    CE2C76F2-9CB3-4962-9400-90A125992CEA.jpeg_thumb.png
    333.2 KB · Views: 295
TheBitterEnd

TheBitterEnd

Well-known member
Listened to that this morning but underlying the question "why did the UK have such a a Bad Epidemic" is the fact that like pretty much all the worst countries we are run by right wing popularists who care more about being popular than keeping their people alive. Contrast with the best countries, often with a woman in charge.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top