A few hundred years ago, when the people of Eyam found that the plague was loose in their village, they all stayed at home - at great cost to themselves - to avoid spreading the plague into the surrounding areas.

Today when there's a more infectious version of the Covid loose in the South-East and Boris puts them into Tier 4, what do the people there do?  Cram themselves like sardines into trains out of London so that they can a) infect each other, and b) carry their version of the virus all over the country.

"...the richer sort of people, especially the nobility and gentry from the west part of the city, thronged out of town with their families and servants in an unusual manner; and this was more particularly seen in Whitechappel; that is to say, the Broad Street where I lived; indeed, nothing was to be seen but waggons and carts, with goods, women, servants, children, &c.; coaches filled with people of the better sort and horsemen attending them, and all hurrying away; then empty waggons and carts appeared, and spare horses with servants, who, it was apparent, were returning or sent from the countries to fetch more people..."

from A Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe (1722)

I was going to spend our traditional Christmas in Mendip along with a few other MNRC members and my covid stricken wife's ashes.
I'll now be at home, alone.
Thanks Boris

I'm still struggling to see how many people can 'leave London' with only a few hours notice. Don't they really live there? Do they really live at the place they're running off to? Are they going to go back to London eventually - in several months? If so, where will they be staying till then? In most cities in Britain people live where they live, and can't 'leave'. It seems completely different in that London. Though my friends who live there do actually live there, and don't have another house somewhere else to 'leave' to.

The only crumb of comfort in this is seeing the faces of the newsreaders on every channel, who all look like they're sat in a pool of shit as they realise that they now are in a worse social predicament than most of us. Apart from Kay Burley, who's already had a fortnight to get used to the idea. I bet she's doing OK though - wish I had her number.

Anyway, as portents of the future, now the present, it's hard to find a better example than this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTI4GN3HrMg

All my mates who are recent graduates who live in London could leave pretty easily to see family back up north. Just going home for longer I guess. I know a lot of people who've been chopping and changing where they live for various lockdown related reasons - I went to live with my in laws for 6 months rather than my shitty student bedroom in York (actually ended up moving four times this year)

It is indeed trued that the people of Eyam isolated themselves during an outbreak of bubonic plague - although unfortunately this noble act was very unsuccessful. The rattus rattus carrier of the xenopsylla cheopis vector thrived in areas of crowded people because it needed warmth to survive - if the people of Eyam had moved up onto the moors for a week or two, far fewer people would have died! They didn't know all this at the time of course.

Covid is a very different matter because it is transmitted through person-person contact. Remaining in a locked down area is, therefore, the most sensible option. However I think we need to consider the reasons behind many people's participation in the 'London exodus' - to avoid being stuck by themselves for Christmas (as someone who spent 3 months by themselves in the first lockdown at a significant cost to my mental health, I can't imagine having to do that over Christmas in the long nights); to escape the area because they are more vulnerable and are at greater risk of becoming fatally ill; etc. 

Instead of blaming the people 'cramming themselves like sardines' and carrying 'their' version of the virus (this statement is somewhat reminiscent of when people initially blamed other nationalities for Covid at the start of the year), perhaps we should be looking towards the actions of the Conservative government that have resulted in this. By announcing a lockdown a mere 8 hours before it was put in place, they forced this mass movement of people to occur in an extremely short period of time, thus increasing risk of infection amongst the crowd and to other parts of the country. Furthermore, had the 1 month lockdown occurred earlier; had London and the South-East been put into Tier 3 immediately; this rapid rise in infections would have been significantly mitigated in the first place.

Personally, I live in London and I will be remaining here - for much longer than I had planned now. The implementation of Tier 4 significantly impacted some of my plans and has been very upsetting for both myself and the people around me, but ultimately I understand why it is necessary now. We're all just trying to co-exist in this world in extremely challenging times and I think instead of turning on each other, we should really be questioning why this lousy government let the situation get so bad in the first place.

A telly program recently stated that 'the bubonic plague', in great concentration mutated to a 'numonic plague' able to transmit human to human. taking rats out of the equation to a greater , or lesser? extent.  just saying.  O. G.

Much as I agree with your sentiments about the government, the fact remains that they are not infecting people - people are infecting people, and if they observe the guidelines properly, they won't infect people. If they'd announced Tier 4 with 48 hours notice, more people would have left, not organised their Christmases better. They didn't 'force' anyone to do anything at all, they did it themselves. I'm stuck by myself for Christmas, but I had already accepted that weeks ago, so why the surprise?

Every broadcast I see, every newsreader, every politician is desperate to avoid saying the one, inescapable fact that could help resolve this. Ed Davey prefaced every sentence he made in interviews yesterday with 'The Liberal Democrats have been saying for months'... No they haven't. Of if they have, I haven't heard them. Sadiq Khan blames Boris Johnson for it raining these days, but still seems to want to keep all hospitality businesses open and keep everyone 'safe'. Keir Starmer's pretty good with the 'Yeah but's...', but he seems pretty much invisible, frankly, along with that party he leads - what were they called again? The doctors seem to be the only ones who tell it straight now, thankfully without piano music tinkling along to remind you it's a 'sad' story.

owd git said:

A telly program recently stated that 'the bubonic plague', in great concentration mutated to a 'numonic plague' able to transmit human to human. taking rats out of the equation to a greater , or lesser? extent.  just saying.  O. G.

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The bubonic plague did shift to pneumonic plague over the years, yes, although to varying extents. Quite a few studies have shown that the Y. Pestis strain was able to alternate between its bubonic and pneumonic forms; often resulting in it returning to the latter in the winter - which would explain the high number of deaths in the cold winter of 1625 despite the fleas going into hibernation.

Interestingly, transmission rates for pneumonic plague were often lower than the bubonic plague. This is because bubonic plague has a fatality rate of 65% whereas pneumonic plague has a fatality of 95% with a rapid onset, meaning that people often died before they had the chance to pass it on to anyone else.

DNA from 25 skeletons from 14th Century London has demonstrated that the plague strain which hit Madagascar in 2013 was almost identical to the "Black Death" of 1348. The majority of plague cases in modern day Madagascar are bubonic, and recent spatiotemporal analysis has found that this form of plague continues to be indiscriminate of urban and rural settings. All of this means that as far as historical epidemiology is concerned, a comparison of the so-called 'Black Death' and Covid-19 is limited in its usefulness.

However an analysis of the social impact of both epidemics shows a greater correlation than the nature of transmission. Attempts to quarantine London in a 17th century plague epidemic resulted in some residents being literally barred inside their houses by government officials blocking the front door - perhaps that is what Tier 5 will be like for us! Although as I have already explained, this method of quarantine actually resulted in more deaths. The rats loved it  . Death and dying rituals were also abandoned in the midst of the chaos - there was a greater increase in people 'dying alone', and a discarding of typical funeral ceremonies in place of rushed burials (particularly in urban centres).

Basically, Covid is totally different and smallpox would perhaps be a more helpful case study to compare it with.

pwhole said:

Much as I agree with your sentiments about the government, the fact remains that they are not infecting people - people are infecting people, and if they observe the guidelines properly, they won't infect people. If they'd announced Tier 4 with 48 hours notice, more people would have left, not organised their Christmases better. They didn't 'force' anyone to do anything at all, they did it themselves. I'm stuck by myself for Christmas, but I had already accepted that weeks ago, so why the surprise?

Every broadcast I see, every newsreader, every politician is desperate to avoid saying the one, inescapable fact that could help resolve this. Ed Davey prefaced every sentence he made in interviews yesterday with 'The Liberal Democrats have been saying for months'... No they haven't. Of if they have, I haven't heard them. Sadiq Khan blames Boris Johnson for it raining these days, but still seems to want to keep all hospitality businesses open and keep everyone 'safe'. Keir Starmer's pretty good with the 'Yeah but's...', but he seems pretty much invisible, frankly, along with that party he leads - what were they called again? The doctors seem to be the only ones who tell it straight now, thankfully without piano music tinkling along to remind you it's a 'sad' story.

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What exactly is the 'one inescapable fact that could help resolve this'?

I agree with what you're saying about the doctors giving the most reliable opinions and think that if we'd followed their advice from the start this whole Tier 4 mess wouldn't have happened.

I'm just saying I think we are often quick to judge people without knowing their circumstances. Some people are better equipped to manage being by themselves for long periods of time or not. Many people fleeing the city had plans to leave in the next week, but were forced to do it all at the same time yesterday evening because of the short notice given by the Government. Even 48 hours notice would have helped this crowd be more spread out. Furthermore, if people are leaving for reasons related to their health (which many of them are) then I would wholeheartedly support them doing that.

thehungrytroglobite said:

What exactly is the 'one inescapable fact that could help resolve this'?

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That the public have an equal responsibility to manage the pandemic as much as the government or the various local and regional authorities do. In many ways more so, as we have to be 'self-policing' to a large degree, as there aren't enough police. But the numbers speak for themselves and you don't need to install CCTV in every home to know that a large proportion of the population are either unable or are refusing to follow social distancing guidelines. I know it's difficult - I'm struggling with it myself. But until the government point this out, people will keep doing it. Track and trace and self-isolation support are critical in managing new outbreaks, but with asymptomatic cases being so high, the only way to deal with it is to stop getting so close to people, especially strangers.

I was on the empty top deck of a bus the other day, and as it went through town it picked up more passengers. The ones who came upstairs sat near me. Then more got on and sat near them. So I got up and moved four rows back so I was alone again. Then another guy got on and sat near me. It was obvious if we spread out, everyone could sit there comfortably, but they didn't. A group of eight guys got off a train with me yesterday and whipped off their masks in a second and marched down the platform in such a tight group I had to step out of the way to avoid their shouty exhalations as they were 'unusually close'. Four young guys were causing obvious tension (without masks on) in Go Outdoors on Friday, shouting and touching loads of clothes for no reason, and when I asked an assistant what to do he told me it wasn't his business as he gets 'less than ?9 an hour'. So I had to leave without buying anything.

I know it's always 'they', but every day this sort of thing happens and it's kind of infuriating to watch when the situation is so serious. Chasing injecting smackheads off my doorstep and down the street isn't helping the general mood much either, but then they probably won't last the winter 

I struggle to criticise those making that journey.

I?ve been in fairly close contact with people from probably 25-30 different ?bubbles? over the past week at work, at least one of whom has subsequently suffered a positive diagnosis. My daughter, nieces and nephews have been in close contact with heaven knows how many different bubbles.

That?s is all safe, we are told. Yet for us all to meet on Christmas Day is now unsafe.

Something doesn?t quite sit right with that.

Chuck into the mix our PM?s father and his widely publicised rule breaking, the whole Cummings saga, that MP who was rumbled visiting his private club during the week, quarantine exemptions for VIPs, etc, etc, and I?d be a right c**k if I took to blaming the public for their actions last night.

I agree with pwhole, but we need to learn to do things safely. Vaccines, lockdowns and politicians all lead us into thinking that it will all go away, but, even if the vaccines work, they will take a very long time. What's needed right now is long term processes for covid safety, and proper policing. Oh and decent government that people can trust.

Reading this yesterday, thinking about Brexit, covid and who knows whatever next, we really do need to get somebody else to start running this country.

The Guardian has published about 8745 articles on the unsuitability of Johnson to run a whelk stall. It?s almost as if they think people didn?t know what he?s like, and if they just keep repeating it to Guardian readers all will change. It?s a form of madness. I remember him from when he ?ran? the Spectator (he didn?t actually read it as editor before publication, which led to the odd mishap).

I wasn?t the one who ran Corbyn against him as an alternate PM. Whatever you think of the portly one, he at least more or less persuaded a chunk of very truculent people to go along with lockdown because he patently didn?t relish it one little bit. Can you imagine the reaction of a great number of people to being enthusiastically locked up by Corbyn? Be thankful for small mercies. He did at least hire Sunak to do the most important job, who is pretty sharp.

It is a pity that the Covid crisis is being seen as a political issue. I don't think it matters what leaning the party in power has.

The PM is simply making difficult decisions on the basis of scientific advice. He knows that whatever he does, it will please nobody. He has to attempt to strike a balance between avoiding total economic catastrophe, and losing control of the pandemic. He also knows that he will be surrounded by armchair experts who could solve this so easily if only they had the power. Whatever decision he takes will be roundly criticised by the press.

And of course everybody has the power of hindsight so they can all point out what they would have done 3 weeks ago. The opposition are being very tedious. All they seem to be able to offer is to just state the opposite.    As for the SNP  :chair:

I don't envy any of the government one bit - they didn't run for office with this on the manifesto.

It is totally unprecedented, people need to remember that. We have never done this before.

Boris did not invent this virus. Nor did he go around the country infecting people with it. There are millions of idiots doing that for him.

Chris.

ChrisJC said:

It is a pity that the Covid crisis is being seen as a political issue. I don't think it matters what leaning the party in power has.

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On the other hand, there are 4 nations with 4 different governments (Tory, Labour, SNP, NI power-sharing), and England has been consistently last in locking down on, and generally with the least restrictive lockdowns. So there is a political difference.

ChrisJC said:

The PM is simply making difficult decisions on the basis of scientific advice.

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He's only making decisions when they are prised out of him. He's lazy, incompetent and highly disingenuous and any suggestion he's 'following the science' in any way willingly or in a timely manner is deluded.

ChrisJC said:

The PM is simply making difficult decisions on the basis of scientific advice.

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It shouldn't be down to one person to make these decisions, it shouldn't even be down to one party. At the very start, the government set out to treat the virus as the enemy, i.e. as though we were at war, and we should really have a wartime-style coalition dealing with this - instead we have a PM acting like a president, with a cabinet of yes men (see Hesseltine's statement of the previous week).

The death toll in all four home nations has been roughly the same as it has over much of western Europe and the USA. Compare and contrast Taiwan which has had seven deaths from a population of 24 million.  Luckily for them they had experienced Sars whereas we were expecting a 'flu season which is less deadly.

China did a great job for them of banning flights from Wuhan to Beijing but allowing them to the west, especially London which was then the busiest air hub - thus effectively exporting Covid much as they export plastic gewgaws. Johnson's victory owed a great deal to the dislike of Corbyn's Trots and fellow travellers like Hatton and also to the dislike of the EU in the "red wall" places who believed they got nothing from their EU contributions save immigrants who hoover up those contributions.

The main problem in the west has always been the Covidiots.

droid said:

ChrisJC said:

The PM is simply making difficult decisions on the basis of scientific advice.

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He's only making decisions when they are prised out of him. He's lazy, incompetent and highly disingenuous and any suggestion he's 'following the science' in any way willingly or in a timely manner is deluded.

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Johnson and his gang are very selective over when they decide to follow scientific advice. Witness allowing the Cheltenham races to go ahead, despite strong pleas from the medical experts; the same story with the latest debacle over the Christmas break decision. People keep telling me he's "Doing his best". Well, if that's his best I'd hate to see his worst! He's inept and incompetent, and an embarrassment to the UK.

With nothing better to do on a Sunday morning, I like to watch The Week in Parliament and Johnson's performance at PM's Question time is incredibly awful. All he can do, apart from exhibiting his usual bumbling, shambling persona, is mock and deflect. I think, given even The Daily Fail's got its knives out for him, he's going to be toast very soon.