Jon
Member
Has anyone took the time to compare different forecast providers for caving areas to see which is the most reliable?
I contacted a few of the providers that I use recently to find out about the differences in data and modelling and got the following replies. I'd be interested in anyone's thoughts.
Met office:
"Thank you for your email in connection with our forecasts. We are world-leading when it comes to the accuracy of our forecasts and the trust in them is high. I've included some links below which should help you make an informed decision about why you can rely on our forecasting. I hope this helps:
About our forecasts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/about-forecasts
How we take observations: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/observations-guide
Forecast accuracy: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts
If you have any further queries or need additional information, please contact our Weather Desk on +44 (0)1392 88 5680 where one of our advisors will be happy to help. The number is open 24 hours a day, every day of the year and it will help us if you can quote the reference number given above."
Yr.no:
"Thank you for your interest in our Yr forecasts.
Our main priorities are Norway, the Arctic region and the other Nordic countries. For these areas we use high resolution models (2.5 km) for short term forecasts and EC ensemble forecasts for medium range. We also do extensive post-processing/statistical corrections of the model output for these areas. This is being funded by the Norwegian government. Unfortunately we do not have the resources to do this for the rest of the world.
For the rest of the world:
We use the EC-HRES model from ECMWF. It is described here:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i
This is the leading global weather forecasting model. However, the resolution of this model is currently 10 km (weather is calculated at points approx 10km apart). For areas with complex topography the terrain is therefore not very well resolved. We also verify forecasts for locations outside Norway.
Local weather service with a forecasters opinion is what best.?
Meteo Group:
"Many thanks for your request.
In WeatherPro there are several types of data: observational and forecast data, as well as radar and satellite images.
As a MeteoGroup product we primarily use our own multi-model approach (MOS) for the forecasts in WeatherPro. Our approach is mostly based on data from the leading global weather models, e.g. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and other local models like the American GFS (Global Forecast System) and the British UKMO (UK Met Office). The forecast data is updated at several, undetermined times each day.
The observational data offered in WeatherPro comes from our own private weather measurement network (1300 in Germany and Switzerland) and from the national weather services (whose data is supplied by the official World Meteorological Organisation WMO weather stations worldwide).
We would like to be able to offer updated data at more regular intervals, but the WMO weather stations only provide once hourly data (only weather stations at airports refresh their data every 20 minutes). Radar images from the national weather services are updated every 15 minutes, and satellite images are received from the geostationary satellites at intervals of between 15 minutes and 3 hours.
The BBC and MeteoGroup are in collaboration for some months."
XCWeather:
"The forecast I display is the Global Forecast System (GFS) which is produced by the US National Weather Service. I take the utmost care to ensure that the GFS data is displayed exactly as provided.
Performance statistics and verification data for the GFS are available here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/perf.php
I'd always strongly recommend checking several forecasts before setting out, in particular, the MetOffice who use a different weather model. All models have their strengths and weaknesses and the MetOffice may spot problems that the GFS misses (and visa versa).
You can find more information about the limitations of numerical weather models and how best to interpret the data on the XCWeather FAQ page and also by following this link. http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Numerical-Weather-Prediction "
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I contacted a few of the providers that I use recently to find out about the differences in data and modelling and got the following replies. I'd be interested in anyone's thoughts.
Met office:
"Thank you for your email in connection with our forecasts. We are world-leading when it comes to the accuracy of our forecasts and the trust in them is high. I've included some links below which should help you make an informed decision about why you can rely on our forecasting. I hope this helps:
About our forecasts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/about-forecasts
How we take observations: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/observations-guide
Forecast accuracy: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts
If you have any further queries or need additional information, please contact our Weather Desk on +44 (0)1392 88 5680 where one of our advisors will be happy to help. The number is open 24 hours a day, every day of the year and it will help us if you can quote the reference number given above."
Yr.no:
"Thank you for your interest in our Yr forecasts.
Our main priorities are Norway, the Arctic region and the other Nordic countries. For these areas we use high resolution models (2.5 km) for short term forecasts and EC ensemble forecasts for medium range. We also do extensive post-processing/statistical corrections of the model output for these areas. This is being funded by the Norwegian government. Unfortunately we do not have the resources to do this for the rest of the world.
For the rest of the world:
We use the EC-HRES model from ECMWF. It is described here:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i
This is the leading global weather forecasting model. However, the resolution of this model is currently 10 km (weather is calculated at points approx 10km apart). For areas with complex topography the terrain is therefore not very well resolved. We also verify forecasts for locations outside Norway.
Local weather service with a forecasters opinion is what best.?
Meteo Group:
"Many thanks for your request.
In WeatherPro there are several types of data: observational and forecast data, as well as radar and satellite images.
As a MeteoGroup product we primarily use our own multi-model approach (MOS) for the forecasts in WeatherPro. Our approach is mostly based on data from the leading global weather models, e.g. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and other local models like the American GFS (Global Forecast System) and the British UKMO (UK Met Office). The forecast data is updated at several, undetermined times each day.
The observational data offered in WeatherPro comes from our own private weather measurement network (1300 in Germany and Switzerland) and from the national weather services (whose data is supplied by the official World Meteorological Organisation WMO weather stations worldwide).
We would like to be able to offer updated data at more regular intervals, but the WMO weather stations only provide once hourly data (only weather stations at airports refresh their data every 20 minutes). Radar images from the national weather services are updated every 15 minutes, and satellite images are received from the geostationary satellites at intervals of between 15 minutes and 3 hours.
The BBC and MeteoGroup are in collaboration for some months."
XCWeather:
"The forecast I display is the Global Forecast System (GFS) which is produced by the US National Weather Service. I take the utmost care to ensure that the GFS data is displayed exactly as provided.
Performance statistics and verification data for the GFS are available here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/perf.php
I'd always strongly recommend checking several forecasts before setting out, in particular, the MetOffice who use a different weather model. All models have their strengths and weaknesses and the MetOffice may spot problems that the GFS misses (and visa versa).
You can find more information about the limitations of numerical weather models and how best to interpret the data on the XCWeather FAQ page and also by following this link. http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Numerical-Weather-Prediction "
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