I suppose there is a parallel with today's epidemic but without all of the social media and news hype. I was 10 at the time and remember it well. Mum and Dad were ill in bed and so was I. Nobody could help each other we were so ill. I think 33,000 died in the UK. The disease was estimated to have a 3% rate of complications and 0.3% mortality in the United Kingdom. Overall, the pandemic caused 1 to 2 million deaths worldwide; the CDC estimates 1.1 million deaths worldwide.[ According to a study in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, the highest excess mortality occurred in Latin America. About 70,000 to 116,000 people died in the United States. In early 1958, it was estimated that 14 000 people had already died of the flu in the United Kingdom of the 9 million who became sick. According to research by Barbara Sands, some of the excess mortality attributed to the Great Leap Forward in Maoist China may have actually been caused by the 1957 flu. It was less lethal than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. It seems to have passed with little fuss and disruption. I wonder if there are any lessons to be learned.

I think the Gov can't win here. If the lockdown works and it 'only' kills 20 k then people will say "we hurt the economy for something that killed no more than flu!" If we didn't do much and 500 k died according to the early Imperial modelling then the gov would be in trouble for that.

I wouldn't put this pandemic down to media hype like some have. In Jan people were saying 'It's nothing, just hype' I wasn't so sure as I saw the leaked videos from Wuhan showing the bodies pilling up (all since deleted by the CCP). I wouldn't believe the figures from the CCP anyway. Watch them claim 6% GDP growth after this. The WHO estimates the case fatality rate of this as 3.8 %, the UK CMO thinks this is an over-estimate due to un-diagnosed mild cases and the true figure is 1 %. Flu is 0.1 %.

There have been some studies showing that most people don't get any symptoms at all and the whole thing is a storm in a teacup but these studies have one huge flaw: people didn't have symptoms at the time of testing and there was no investigation as to whether they got symptoms later or not.

Edit people are also saying that most of the people who die of this were about to die anyway. This just isn't true for most of the co-morbidities. For example with type II diabetes you can live on for years or decades with it, Covid-19 kills in a month so what are the chances that they were about to die anyway?

Interesting to read that rapid deployment of a vaccine contained the epidemic though it resurfaced again in 1968 in a differant form.

I don't think we'll be as lucky with a quick vaccine this time round. 18 months is what most companies are saying and that's a fast-track. The coronavirus MERS-Cov appeared in 2012 and we're still in human trials with that vaccine. OK it's less of a priority than SARS-Cov 2 but 18 months would be amazingly fast.

Speleotron said:

Edit people are also saying that most of the people who die of this were about to die anyway. This just isn't true for most of the co-morbidities. For example with type II diabetes you can live on for years or decades with it, Covid-19 kills in a month so what are the chances that they were about to die anyway?

Click to expand...

That assumes that you get severe Covid-19 symptoms along with the underlying illness. If the Covid-19 symptoms are mild, as I understand it in this country, the cause of death is nevertheless recorded as a Covid related death. In Germany, they distinguish between Covid-19 and underlying disease hence, at least in part, their lower Covid-19 mortality rate.

Although the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic was called the "Spanish Flu", it did not originate in Spain. It's source was believed to be in Kansas, USA where it jumped species from livestock to humans with the first human cases being at an army barracks in that state, the soldiers then carried the virus to Europe, with the USA joining the First World War in 1917.  Reporting on the subsequent flu epidemic was curtailed due to wartime censorship restrictions both in the UK and it's allies as well as Germany and their allies who were fighting against us in order to maintain public morale.  Spain, however was neutral in World War I (as well as WWII) and therefore it was there that reports about a major flu pandemic began to circulate hence the name "Spanish Flu".

OK but with underlying health concerns that you can live with for a few years or more (which is the case for most of the ones I've read about like hypertension, COPD, diabetes) it does seem a coincidence that it becomes fatal in the 3 weeks that they happen to have mild Covid-19. We'll not know the real numbers for a couple of years but even the 0.4 % in germany, with their own way of counting, is pretty bad when nobody has immunity so millions are getting it over a few weeks. Not that you're saying it isn't bad I just know of people ignoring lockdown because 'it's only killing people who were dying anyway' or 'german figures show it's not much worse than flu'.

San Marino is worst affected state, having now lost almost 0.1% of their population (32 deaths)...

Useful explanation of fatality statistics (c.1500 deaths per day is UK average):
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654

I remember the Asian 'Flu pandemic. For a "treat" I was taken to watch the Busby Babes - then in their pomp.

It took ages for a useable (in some years) 'flu vaccine to be developed and introduced.

Having said all that it was mad that Cheltenham races and the Liverpool v Athletico Madrid were allowed to go ahead.