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Errors of Judgement

tony from suffolk

Well-known member
''The Bomb will never go off, I speak as an expert in explosives."
- - Admiral William Leahy , US Atomic Bomb Project

"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom."
-- Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
-- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
-- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

"But what is it good for?"
-- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968,
commenting on the microchip.

"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981

This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.
The device is inherently of no value to us"
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message
sent to nobody in particular?"
-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea
must be feasible"
-- A  Yale  University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing
reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper"
-- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in "Gone With The Wind."

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out"
-- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible"
-- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples
that said you can't do this" 
- - Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads.

"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy"
-- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
- - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics,  Yale  University , 1929.

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value"
-- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole  Superieure de Guerre  , France .

"Everything that can be invented has been invented"
-- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899.

"The super computer is technologically impossible. It would take all of the water that flows over
Niagara Falls to cool the heat generated by the number of vacuum tubes required."
-- Professor of Electrical Engineering, New York University

"I don't know what use any one could find for a machine that would make copies of documents.
It certainly couldn't be a feasible business by itself."
-- the head of IBM, refusing to back the idea, forcing the inventor to found Xerox.

"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon,"
-- Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen  Victoria  1873.

And last but not least...

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
-- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
 

Blakethwaite

New member
Or closer to home, looking forlornly out of the window at Pete's Eats or the cafe at Tanygrisiau &  wondering what on earth made you think that it might be sunny in North Wales...
 

tony from suffolk

Well-known member
I also like this, from "Lord" Alan Sugar in 2004:

"Next Christmas, the iPod will be dead, gone, finished, kaput";

and this infamous quote from Microsoft CEO Steve "Sweaty" Ballmer in 2007, the day after Jobs unveiled the first iPhone:

"There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."
 
 

mrodoc

Well-known member
'It'll never go as long as there is a hole in my arse' : Butch on Wigmore Swallet
'Reservoir Hole is worked out - nothing more to find' Tav
 

martinm

New member
A certain Dr Ford who stated about the main sink at Wetton Mill in an early edition of 'Caves of Derbyshire':- "Chances of entry are slim"! A few years later we found and entered Darfar Pot!
 

hamsterlord

New member
They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist...
                -- Civil War General John Sedgwick, his last
                words, Battle of Spotsylvania Court House, 1864
 

tony from suffolk

Well-known member
"We also do cut-glass sherry decanters complete with six glasses on a silver-plated tray that your butler can serve you drinks on, all for ?4.95.  People say, "How can you sell this for such a low price?", I say, "because it's total crap."" - Gerald Ratner.

?Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.? -? Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York Times in 1955.

?There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.? ? Albert Einstein, 1932


?The cinema is little more than a fad. It?s canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage.? -? Charlie Chaplin, actor, producer, director, and studio founder, 1916

A biggie:
?The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty ? a fad.? ? The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford?s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
 

Clive G

Member
The Charge of the Light Brigade (1854)

‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d ?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do & die,
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
(Alfred, Lord Tennyson, 1854)

Lord Raglan gave the order orally to General Airey, who wrote it down; Captain Nolan delivered the order to Lucan; Lord Lucan, in command of the Cavalry Division, passed on the order orally to Cardigan; Lord Cardigan, in command of the Light Brigade, led the charge.

Who was to blame? Was it Lord Raglan, whose order had been ambiguous? Was it Lord Lucan, who misunderstood the order? Or was it Lord Cardigan, who executed the order?

The Times of March 9 1855 expressed in its verdict on Lord Lucan: “It is not fitting that officers so little gifted with the powers of understanding or executing orders should be entrusted with the lives of men or the honor of nations.”

Increasingly opinion has come to blame Captain Nolan, who so insubordinately delivered the order. Was he trying to re-direct the light brigade towards the Causeway Heights when he suddenly rode out in front of Lord Cardigan at the beginning of the advance? Or was his self-regard such that he simply wanted to lead the charge? No one will ever know. Nolan was killed by the first Russian shot fired.

But, perhaps, rather . . . : insufficient experience in the field by those in charge, coupled with a lack of scouting intelligence of the true enemy position and strength?

http://www.thecimmerian.com/the-charge-of-the-light-brigade-part-iii/
http://www.oxforddnb.com/public/themes/92/92728.html


Titanic’s Lifeboats (1912)

At the British Inquiry into the Titanic disaster Sir Alfred Chalmers of the Board of Trade was asked why regulations governing the number of lifeboats required on passenger ships had not been updated since 1896. Sir Alfred stated that he felt there were too many lifeboats. He said that if there had been fewer lifeboats there would have been more of a rush to fill them and so they would have left full and consequently more people would have been saved.

The principle seems to have been how many trips would each lifeboat have to make to evacuate the complete vessel? The number used when equipping the liner was ‘three’; prior to departure the inspector from the Board of Trade thought that ‘two’ would have been better; but, in practice, the absence of any other vessel onto which the passengers could be evacuated meant that ‘one’ turned out to be the solution on the day.

But, what a miracle that any lifeboats were found in time - in the vast expanse of the freezing North Atlantic . . .

http://www.mayoeducationcentre.ie/files/Lesson-1-Teacher-Display-Poster-2-Titanic-Lifeboats.pdf
http://the-rms-titanic.tumblr.com/
http://www.titanicinquiry.org/BOTInq/BOTInq23Chalmers01.php
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225664/Titanic-safety-officer-Maurice-Clarkes-warning-needed-50-lifeboats-ignored-astonishing-cover-revealed-100-years.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/titanic-anniversary/9646183/Titanic-safety-officer-warned-ship-needed-50-per-cent-more-lifeboats.html


Hindenburg (1937)

After the crash of the hydrogen-filled R101, in which most of the crew died in the subsequent fire rather than the impact itself, Hindenburg designer Hugo Eckener sought to use helium, a less flammable lifting gas. However, the United States, which had a monopoly on the world supply of helium and feared that other countries might use the gas for military purposes, banned its export, and the Hindenburg was reengineered.

Despite being filled with 7 million cubic feet of highly combustible hydrogen gas, the Hindenburg featured a smoking room. Passengers were unable to bring matches and personal lighters aboard the zeppelin, but they could buy cigarettes and Cuban cigars on board and light up in a room pressurized to prevent any hydrogen from entering. A steward admitted passengers and crew through a double-door airlock into the smokers’ lounge, which had a single electric lighter, and made sure no one left with a lit cigarette or pipe . . .

An investigation into the incident concluded that a spark had ignited leaking hydrogen, but the cause of the spark or the leak were never determined. A build-up of static electricity, caused by atmospheric conditions during the flight, or an atmospheric effect, at the time of venting hydrogen in the process of landing, are thought to have been likely contenders.

Out of the 97 passengers and crew on board, 62 survived. The disaster’s 36 deaths included 13 passengers, 22 crew members and one worker on the ground. Many survivors jumped out of the zeppelin’s windows and ran away as fast as they could.

http://www.history.com/news/the-hindenburg-disaster-9-surprising-facts
http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/03/06/the-mystery-of-the-hindenburg-disaster-finally-solved/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster


And a movie to finish off with . . .

Dr Strangelove . . . (1964)

President Merkin Muffley: General Turgidson, I find this very difficult to understand. I was under the impression that I was the only one in authority to order the use of nuclear weapons.

General 'Buck' Turgidson: That's right, sir, you are the only person authorized to do so. And although I, uh, hate to judge before all the facts are in, it's beginning to look like, uh, General Ripper exceeded his authority.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/quotes

 

Oceanrower

Active member
tony from suffolk said:
'

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."
-- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

Err, but that one's true though. Mine certainly doesn't.
 

Subpopulus Hibernia

Active member
"[50 years hence] We shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium."

- Winston Churchill, 1931.

This is a quote I've seen in lists like these before, though after the news of the stem cell beef burger that was served up the other day, it seems rather prophetic now.
 

Pitlamp

Well-known member
"It appears that divers are wasting their time at this site."

Oliver Cromwell Lloyd, not long before the main extensions at Malham Cove Rising were found.
 

bograt

Active member
"Theres nothing there"

Mark "the Dreg" on being told to look up to the left just after the Peak/Speedwell dry link was made. It took another 10 years before Moose looked that way :)
 

Clive G

Member
That sounds like the night when the CRO planned to have their 50th anniversary dinner? For the benefit of anyone new to the story . . .

". . . And so out came my trump card - the Inglesport bag. I took off my over- and undersuit and slid on the purpose-designed attire, thereby reducing my bulk and increasing my ability to slide over the rock. Y-fronts and wellies remained in place.

As I looked into the squeeze I could see that within a metre or so the bedding widened significantly and then changed in dimensions to form a round, body-sized drainpipe tube heading for caverns measureless. I weighed up the situation carefully. The squeeze was horizontal, flat-out with no bends. Gravity wasn't going to play a part. The undulations and spikes on the roof and floor were in the way, but there was nothing about them that suggested they could only be passed in one direction. Logic simply told me that if I could get through all I had to do to get back was turn around, apply the same force and I'd succeed . . ."
(CB, Descent (191), August/September 2006, 32-3)

I have to admit to getting stuck in a similar situation myself when pushing Trident Passage in Agen Allwedd, except there was no special dinner going on, with a load of tidy rescue experts available nearby to lend a helping hand. The only other cavers around, further back down the passage and out of earshot, were busy surveying and making an earlier squeeze more negotiable.

The problem consisted of wearing a sweat shirt on top of my wetsuit jacket, which collected the tacky clay in the floor as I crawled forwards. Once I realised the squeeze had to be dug further, since it was impossible to reach the open chamber ahead where there was clearly turning room, I found that as I crawled backwards the sweat shirt rolled itself up and became glued together in a lump, assisted by the clay, and then made it impossible to crawl back any further.
 

Slug

Member
Right then.....Major Reno, Captain Benteen....I have decided to split our force into three.... You two will go to the left and the right....I will go straight up the middle.....when there I shall poke the the combined forces of the Lakota Sioux, and the Cheyenne, with a stick and say Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough......

  George Armstrong Custer.

.....and this place  http://www.darwinawards.com/  is full of 'em
 
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