Author Topic: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?  (Read 2081 times)

Offline droid

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #50 on: July 02, 2020, 06:09:19 pm »

Ring them up and ask them.

No.

Lack of a direct answer from you tells me all  need to know.

 :)
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Online pwhole

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #51 on: July 02, 2020, 10:12:16 pm »
There was a very interesting, if somewhat sobering article in 'i' newspaper today, interviewing Professor Tom Koch who predicts another, even more virulent pandemic in the next 5 to 8 years, and suggesting that as our current efforts to get on top of this one are not that great, the next one could be devastating:

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“When it will come and what will it be nobody knows, not really. But we know there will be one. And given the increased rate of epidemic outbreaks from a range of bacteria and viruses probably in the next five to eight years,” he told i.

“For three years I’ve lectured to various academic medical groups on ‘The coming pandemic’ and so am not surprised one finally arrived. As I’ve said repeatedly, all the factors promoting a pandemic event were in place.

We were fortunate that the mortality rate of this virus was below the higher threshold I had proposed for what the World Health Organisation (WHO) had called ‘Disease X.’ That said, there is no reason to believe the next pandemic won’t be at least equally infectious and with a greater mortality. The great pandemics of history have all been over 20 per cent – and perhaps even more infectious."

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/world-face-another-pandemic-tom-koch-predicted-coronavirus-460702

Offline nearlywhite

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #52 on: July 03, 2020, 08:22:42 am »
I would just like to observe that it's far too early in this pandemic to have any meaningful assessment of 'success'.
Until either we have a vaccine or the virus has been through the entire population, then all this talk of lockdown timing just changes when people die. It does not change who dies.

Chris.

It also assumes there are no negative health impacts to lockdown... which as not true. Though initially I saw it from a cancer point of view, since being redeployed there is a significant number of delayed treatments of the people coming in.

Only recently have they agreed that this is effective:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/cheap-steroid-first-drug-shown-reduce-death-covid-19-patients

Except that it is effective in ARDS, we're more confirming that Covid isn't different.

I genuinely think it will be 5-10 years before we can make head or tail of it - there will be a lot of latent effects of all of this, and it may yet prove that herd immunity was not such a foolhardy strategy, sadly. Earlier lockdowns that don't last as long are beginning to look far more appealing.

Online Duck ditch

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #53 on: July 03, 2020, 09:27:49 am »
10 million recorded cases world wide has been announced.  I only have ‘o’ level maths so check my figures.
10 million is 1% of a billion.  Let’s say the real number of people who have had or having covid 19 is 70.8 million.  So 1% of the world population.
Is this just the beginning?
So Can we say 0.5% death rate is acceptable? Open up the economy? On a personal business level certainly understandable.  Will the world economy improve while the virus is still about?

At the beginning of covid 19 nobody knew what the death rate was.
So potentially a new virus comes along.  What death rate becomes unacceptable? 1%. 5%?
Would we (Uk) shut down completely and properly without knowing what the death rate is?
Pessimistic. Horrifying.  I don’t know.

I hope Trump is right and it will magically go away.
A vaccine hopefully.  Then I think of the growing anti vaccination movement.
Smallpox was eradicated due to total cooperation.

The real hope is that we don’t all need to catch it before it peters out.  That’s why I’m still keeping in my bubble and keeping my distance from other people. 

Online mikem

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #54 on: July 03, 2020, 10:25:52 am »
Latest figures (2 weeks ago), show deaths having finally dropped below the 5 year average, but those at home were above, by almost the same number that deaths in hospitals & care homes dropped - some of them would have survived if they'd been in hospital, so we have to get back to some sort of normality:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending19june2020
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 10:39:44 am by mikem »

Offline oldfart

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #55 on: July 03, 2020, 10:42:50 am »

Online mikem

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #56 on: July 03, 2020, 11:23:33 am »
So, if I don't have a sense of impending doom, does that mean I'm not alive, or just not as old as Private Frazer?

Online pwhole

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #57 on: July 03, 2020, 11:36:49 am »
It means you're just not taking life seriously enough ;)

I too don't have a sense of impending doom as I think ultimately this shake-up is good for all of us, and it's forcing everyone to re-think the way we've built out societies and our economies. Also partly as my lifestyle is already quite like this and always has been, so psychologically the only adjustment I've really had to make is coping with the extreme boredom and not seeing my most of my best friends. Much of the west's economy is bullshit IMO, and we do have an opportunity to at least try and come to a consensus now and work out what other folks think is bullshit too and stop doing it. Personally I think the economy depending on us having a nice coffee and a piece of cake whilst shopping for underwear is not a solid model for a long-term future. Similarly, twanging the legs of a dead chicken apart to grab its entrails while it flies past you on a hook conveyor is also not suitable employment for most people - if they hope to maintain their sanity and have a nice life. But I do like to eat chicken - it's very complicated.

Ironically after the discussion yesterday, this was shown on ITV last night:

https://www.itv.com/hub/billion-pound-cruises-all-at-sea/10a0125a0001

Online Duck ditch

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #58 on: July 03, 2020, 12:43:37 pm »
I don’t feel an impending doom either.  It’s just that this could be just the beginning.  Nobody knows. There is no right or wrong. 
Its not just a matter of being scared of the virus.  It’s more of, I don’t want to be a carrier who passes it on.
Overall I agree with pwhole.
A bit of global shrinkage.

Offline Fjell

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #59 on: July 03, 2020, 01:58:17 pm »
It means you're just not taking life seriously enough ;)

I too don't have a sense of impending doom as I think ultimately this shake-up is good for all of us, and it's forcing everyone to re-think the way we've built out societies and our economies.

if you were brutally honest, about 80% of all employment is superfluous - but there seems to be a societal need to feel useful (I even have books on this*). Having a grown man in their 20's (sporting a magnificent beard) spend their days making Cappuccinos seems somehow strange to me, but I am reliably informed by multiple children that I am so last week.

I personally have found it extremely easy to not do a stroke of work in recent years. Comes naturally like. Maybe it's the future?

* See summary of part one (debunking the myth of Why People Work) of:
http://dmcodyssey.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/part-one-chapter-2-p13-25.pdf

(the book is very expensive, about £50)

Online aardgoose

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #60 on: July 03, 2020, 01:59:35 pm »
No cake! Heretic!


The symptom chart needs a footnote for Prince Andrew: "Sweating not applicable."

Offline Mrs Trellis

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #61 on: July 03, 2020, 02:13:26 pm »
I bet he's sweating now.
Mrs Trellis
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Offline droid

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #62 on: July 03, 2020, 05:23:41 pm »
Whoa!!!!!!

I agree with Fjell….

The only difference lockdown made to me was that I was *told* to be an antisocial miserable bastard rather than doing it of choice.

And my latest airgun is taking longer to arrive (I'm a crap shot, just like airguns  ::)  )
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Online pwhole

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #63 on: July 03, 2020, 10:47:14 pm »
We are in the peculiar position of often having to create jobs to give people something to do, rather than that there's an urgent need for the service they provide. Last year I worked with a guy who bought a Costa coffee on the way to work (maybe one at lunch too) and one on the way home, whereas I made a flask of 'crack coffee' before I left. At the end of the week he'd spent £48 and I'd spent £3.50, and I was the one who was rattling all day. I have to coax it out with a fork. But it did occur to me that the poor sod stood in the service station at 6.30 am making this foul brew for my mate was the worst off, as he had to stay there all day in this hellhole intersection making weak coffee for dimwits with money to burn. And now he's probably exposed to coronavirus hell as well.

A four-day week would massively help, as then more people could work, but each one work less, and have a better time too on their three-day weekend. Productivity goes up by 20% everywhere it's been tried and in some places even more. Manufacturing and more outdoor work is the key instead of shitty and pointless services that make people fat and lazy. Haha - back to the factories and fields, you wretches! But there's still not enough for folks to do there even if they wanted to.

The elephant in the room is space - or rather space industries. The whole world is about 30 years behind schedule thanks to Ronald Reagan, Boris Yeltsin, George Bush (both of them) and all the rest of those tinpot losers who squandered the huge advantages gained in the 1960s and early 1970s and tilted space funding into a weapons research programme instead of a travel and exploration programme. And subsequently squandered even more good money on pointless Middle East screw-ups and dodgy alliances with oil tyrants. By now these space-related industries could be employing millions of people in interested (and co-operating) countries instead of a few thousand in competing countries, and the Moon would be where folks wanted to go on holiday instead of Fuengirola. First you build a brothel, then a bar, then a casino and then a hotel. Simples ;)

We've got a Boeing factory in Sheffield now but whether it'll survive the pandemic grounding and the recent crash scandal remains to be seen, but it's a start - though it doesn't really employ many people, being hi-tech. The irony.

We might even be using jet-packs for access work instead of cheap bulk rope. Although maybe a bit more tweaking needed first before I get on one. But how long have we been talking about these, and they still don't work!:


Online Roger W

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #64 on: July 03, 2020, 10:55:35 pm »
That could have done some serious damage to some stal if you'd been using one of those underground!

I think the clubs will be sticking with the winch at Gaping Gill for a while yet.
"That, of course, is the dangerous part about caves:  you don't know how far they go back, sometimes... or what is waiting for you inside."   JRR Tolkein: "The Hobbit"

Offline nearlywhite

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #65 on: July 04, 2020, 12:00:34 pm »
We are in the peculiar position of often having to create jobs to give people something to do, rather than that there's an urgent need for the service they provide.

This is a criticism that the French school of economics leveled at the English for their parasitic manufacturing sector which wasn't adding value... This was at the dawn of the industrial revolution.

Just because you don't appreciate the convenience provided by an 'overpriced' coffee doesn't mean there isn't one. Time, space and convenience are valuable commodities.

Though I agree about the 4 day week and space! Though I'm skeptical that covid will lead to a reassessment of our economy sadly. The increasing inequality however will come to ahead at some point so there's always that.

Online AR

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #66 on: July 04, 2020, 12:30:44 pm »
I'm currently on a four-day week and seriously considering asking to stay on it when the company goes back to five - as Phil says, it does make a difference and a three-day weekend means less fitting a quart into a pint pot  with all the non- paid work jobs.

Like Phil's coffee (which I know from experience borders on a class "B" drug!  :o) I usually take a packed lunch into work, which is a massive saving over the course of the month. I've never got the people who say "oh, I'm far too busy to make one on a morning" given I've usually done at least half an hour and usually more of horse feeding/mucking/checking before setting off to work, and taken the dog out too. However, there are masses of people employed to make butties and suchlike for all those people who think they're too busy to do it themselves, can't get their shit together or plan ahead enough. Do we as a country really need that?
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Offline nearlywhite

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #67 on: July 04, 2020, 12:35:07 pm »
Obviously, otherwise the economic need wouldn't be there.

Online mikem

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #68 on: July 04, 2020, 06:06:50 pm »
Which is where equality in pay falls apart, as if it costs you more to purchase things like sandwiches than your time is worth, then you'll make your own...

Online AR

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #69 on: July 04, 2020, 09:12:42 pm »
Which is where equality in pay falls apart, as if it costs you more to purchase things like sandwiches than your time is worth, then you'll make your own...

1) I'm a Yorkshire lad - if I can do it missen and save brass, I will...
2) It takes a few minutes to make a cheese butty.
3) Pre-packaged sarnies are usually poisoned with foul substances like mayonaisse.

Having said that, Fridays at work tend to involve a bacon and black pudding butty from the canteen on the morning, and a pint and bowl of patatas bravas at the Beer Engine for dinner - something I really do miss with full time WFH :(

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Online pwhole

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #70 on: July 04, 2020, 11:36:01 pm »
Like Phil's coffee (which I know from experience borders on a class "B" drug!  :o) I usually take a packed lunch into work, which is a massive saving over the course of the month.

Thanks for the coffee compliment, though I should admit I may have dropped some class 'B' drugs in there as well  :halo:

Ironically I've had to buy sandwiches today and tomorrow as HMRC made me stay up so late last night I didn't have time to make any! Mr. Principle is taking the overnight expenses and running to Waitrose! However, I did make my own coffee, which is more important. I wasn't suggesting we should eliminate all coffee chains, just that we probably shouldn't rely too much on that side of the economy for long-term stability as it's too bound up in 'lifestyle' and not enough in 'stimulant' - and when it comes to the crunch, sitting about chatting isn't enough of a bonus when the crank isn't working.

For £3.50 a mug I wouldn't expect to sit down for 8 hours  :blink:

Offline Fulk

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #71 on: July 04, 2020, 11:44:54 pm »
Hi AR, I was amused by your:

Quote
3) Pre-packaged sarnies are usually poisoned with foul substances like mayonaisse.

I get really pissed off on the relatively rare occasions that I want to buy a sandwhich, because they all seem to come with mayonaise. So I say, 'May I have a tuna sandwhcih, without mayonaise'; 'No'.

And so it goes on. What is it with sandwhich bars/shops and mayonaise? And most of the time I just walk out and 'go hungry' (not really, of course, but relatively speaking).

Offline kay

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #72 on: July 05, 2020, 07:01:56 am »
What is it with sandwhich bars/shops and mayonaise?

It stops the filling falling out. It's there for good reason.

Online AR

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Re: Why Did the UK Have Such a Bad Covid-19 Epidemic?
« Reply #73 on: July 05, 2020, 09:14:26 am »
With the pre-packaged supermarket ones, it's mainly there to increase the shelf life - it stops the bread going dry as quickly. That still doesn't stop it being the devil's spunk as far as I'm concerned, and Fulk looks to be with me on that one!
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