Author Topic: Covid 19  (Read 19581 times)

Offline pwhole

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2020, 09:46:40 pm »
Those that think lockdown doesn't work...

What will?

Soldiers at the end of your street probably. Can't see any other way that the great British public take the situation seriously. Of course, it would be a brave Prime Minister that would go down that route.

There's a lot of streets in the UK and not that many soldiers. In many urban areas I suspect the soldiers would lose most battles that started. Unfamiliar territory etc.

Most of the doctors and scientists on the news seem to be telling the truth. Christina Pagel is doing a sterling job at keeping her rage just under control and putting out facts, however uncomfortable. Devi Sridhar too is doing a wonderful job, but the pain in her eyes is telling. I trust their opinions far more than any of the cabinet or any of their 'friends with benefits'. Not Housing Benefit, I should add.

Offline mikem

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #26 on: December 30, 2020, 10:39:07 pm »
Indeed, but their opinions are only looking at one side of the problem. There is no right answer and even medical professionals are only best guessing the solutions.

Online Fjell

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #27 on: December 30, 2020, 10:40:54 pm »
The truth appears to be:

1. People won’t stand for being locked up for very long. As predicted back in Feb.
2. Very few people under the age of 60, and certainly 50, are affected seriously by the virus. People have twigged this now. That’s a lot of people.
3. Dumb luck plays a huge part. Back in March Germany were geniuses, now it is out of control there and they probably haven’t even got the new variant. Just think how much hot air was wasted on that.
4. Everything else is just media-driven shite.

FFIW, I think the MHRA have balls of steel for what they did today in reinterpreting the vaccine trial data. That’s the sort of concrete data point I need.

Granny#2 got the jab today. Hurray.

Offline alastairgott

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2020, 10:44:28 pm »
In my opinion (oh dear :coffee: ) tiers should have been implemented 10 months ago along with the quarantine of all people coming in from abroad. This would have avoided the need for a national lockdown.


Hindsight, I know, but then you would keep the caseload in hospitals slightly higher during the summer months than it was this summer. And then moving into September you move the country into a three day working week.


And (in my hypothetical country) if you really want to push the boat out, put "toll booths" on all entry points into large towns and cities. In the event of a local lockdown in that city/town people are only allowed to leave/enter if they hold an electronic tag that allows their vehicle to go to/from work crossing that boundary.


People kicking off at the "border" guards will have the tyres on their car popped electronically by government pop and (in)pound workers, who work from home on their laptops listenening into rowdy exchanges between border guards and mongs. Before pressing the button for the spikes.
 You will be allowed your car back if it has more than 3months left to go till its next MOT. :blink:

Offline ZombieCake

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2020, 10:45:59 pm »
Here we go






Offline JasonC

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #30 on: December 31, 2020, 12:07:03 am »

Mortality rates really aren't that unusual this year. Sure,  higher than last year, the worst in 10 years even (by 3%), but lower than 2008 and I don't remember that making headline news or forcing a national lockdown.
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor

So what happened in 2008?  I admit to only having skimmed the above link, but 2008 does stick out as a bad year.  I know it was the financial crash, but I don't recall a rash of stockbrokers jumping off tall buildings like they do in the cartoons, so what was it?

Offline RobinGriffiths

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #31 on: December 31, 2020, 01:17:52 am »
The other thing to consider about Covid is that it's only been around for just over a year. We don't know what the long term prognosis is, whether Covid will come back year on year and give people another 'nip'. The vaccine might prevent illness, but won't necessarily prevent transmission. We've already seen that as we became sanguine about the Pfizzer vaccine a few months ago, that the virus still has some tricks up it's sleeve. Best play it safe I think.

Offline mikem

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Offline Cap'n Chris

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #33 on: December 31, 2020, 08:33:56 am »
The other thing to consider about Covid is that it's only been around for just over a year. We don't know what the long term prognosis is, whether Covid will come back year on year and give people another 'nip'. The vaccine might prevent illness, but won't necessarily prevent transmission. We've already seen that as we became sanguine about the Pfizzer vaccine a few months ago, that the virus still has some tricks up it's sleeve. Best play it safe I think.

Fellow caver, Hazel Barton, produced this right at the outset (watched 3 times at the commencement of the 1st Lockdown) - if you are going to watch it, watch every bit of it without breaking away/pausing.



It is extremely educational.

CVs have been around a long time, are quite well understood - e.g. they are seasonal so the incidence of infection/transmission reduces significantly during dry/warm months, this means it's probably a fair prediction to say that the current international roll out of vaccine(s) will be heralded as a major success by end March/early April when the CV19 naturally dissipates anyway and the latter will be celebrated by the media/government as being because of the vaccine(s); by mid-October onwards there will be a natural return of CV19 variants and so further lockdown(s) next winter are highly likely "as a precaution" (best play it safe); Christmas as you knew it probably won't exist again this decade.

Offline andrewmc

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2020, 09:50:54 am »
Everyone's a bloody expert.

I used to think that somehow we managed to put the most incompetent people in the country in government. Now I realise being loudly incompetent and thinking they know better isn't just limited to top politicians, it's a national sport.

People seem to have lost all ability to understand a situation fully. We do teach kids in school to try and understand the 'whys' of a situation, so why can't the adults manage it?

If Covid isn't really as bad as the government are saying, then why would a government that has spent the last ten years trying to lower the deficit through ideological reduction in state spending suddenly cripple the economy to try and deal with it?
If it's all some glorious conspiracy, to what end? And why would they make such a hash of it? Do we really believe the government is competent?

OR (using Occam's razor) is the following situation a better explanation
a) yes the government is incompetent (as most are)
b) nonetheless they are being advised by competent scientists (who, like all scientists, don't have all the answers)
c) the virus is full of suckiness and you really don't want to get it, whether you are old, have pre-existing conditions or just get long Covid.

There is one more thing to think about: countries like New Zealand and the SE Asian countries that have largely controlled SARS-COV-2 will not be the source of any significant new variants. We will be, as we are providing the breeding grounds for new potentially more transmissible (as we've seen) and potentially more deadly (fortunately not yet seen?) variants. Controlling the virus means preventing it getting worse, or escaping the vaccines.

Offline andrewmc

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2020, 09:57:34 am »
Who want's long-lasting multi-organ damage in the relatively young? Not me.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4470

Estimates of one in twenty people getting symptoms for over 8 weeks.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

Long Covid is going to stop you going for significant exercise or caving for a while. That's not going to help anyone's mental health.
https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid


Offline alastairgott

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2020, 09:59:30 am »
Had a conversation yesterday about smoking and covid, hazel covers that at about 1.08.30

Offline mikem

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2020, 10:23:34 am »
& she even has some idea what she's talking about!

Offline al

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2020, 11:05:24 am »
& she even has some idea what she's talking about!

Praise indeed!
Old ... but not old enough to know any better

Offline mikem

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2020, 11:07:14 am »

Offline Ed W

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2020, 11:09:45 am »
I am going to steer clear of the rights and wrongs of lockdown and infection rates etc, I am an engineer with does not understand such things. I am also going to buck the trend of doom and gloom - whether this is that we are all going to catch it and die or cause sufficient economic damage that the survivors will be forced to return to the stone age.

Yes COVID has been a catastrophe on both human and economic fronts, but I think there are many positives that will come out of this in the longer term.  Change creates opportunity, and just as many have lost jobs I can see that there will be many new avenues for employment and business.  It is already clear that the COVID crisis has forced both business and individuals to embrace new technologies years, if not decades, faster than they would have done without it.

I can see that for many work life balance will be revolutionised as companies realise that many people can work effectively from home and that many meetings can be held virtually and still be effective for instance.  A dramatic reduction in commuting is likely to be a result that is good for road / rail congestion and the environment.

So though things look pretty dark at the moment, I think that the post-COVID world from about the middle of 2021 could be a very exciting place to be..

Offline maxf

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2020, 01:24:23 pm »
Who want's long-lasting multi-organ damage in the relatively young? Not me.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4470

Estimates of one in twenty people getting symptoms for over 8 weeks.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

Long Covid is going to stop you going for significant exercise or caving for a while. That's not going to help anyone's mental health.
https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid

To quote the BMJ link you supplied:

'The research has not yet been peer reviewed and could not establish a causal link between organ impairment and infection'


Offline zzzzzzed

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #42 on: December 31, 2020, 04:07:26 pm »

Mortality rates really aren't that unusual this year. Sure,  higher than last year, the worst in 10 years even (by 3%), but lower than 2008 and I don't remember that making headline news or forcing a national lockdown.
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor
If you look at the last 27 years data, winter and spring 2020 had the eight highest death rate.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-strong-was-the-scientific-advice-behind-lockdown

A bad influenza years kills more people than Covid has.  If we didn’t have the technology to identify the new virus nobody would have noticed anything unusual about this year.

People keep saying that the death rate would have been higher without the lockdown but, if you look around the world, there has been a large difference in the severity of the lockdowns but not a similarly large effect on the outcomes.

Peru, for example, imposed one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns in the world yet it has had a higher death rate per capita than Brazil which has been widely critised for it’s relaxed policy.

Offline maxf

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #43 on: December 31, 2020, 04:44:25 pm »
Which brings me to one of my original statements in my firstpost in this thread questioning what the real pandemic is..

It has to be over testing....

Imagine if every winter we tested everyone with a PCR test set to identify the common cold... We would have rocketing cases and deaths attributed as such as they are to covid now.

It cannot identify the difference between who is ill and who was ill who is infectious and not to mention the elephant in the room, false positives from over run labs

Offline mikem

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #44 on: December 31, 2020, 04:48:59 pm »
One of the problems is that hardly any of the statistics are comparable, as things have been done so differently this year (even within the past few months).

Online aardgoose

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #45 on: December 31, 2020, 05:51:10 pm »
Quote
It cannot identify the difference between who is ill and who was ill who is infectious and not to mention the elephant in the room, false positives from over run labs

The majority of PCR tests are for people who are displaying symptoms of covid, thus it is more likely they have an active infection than a random sample of the public.  The false positive 'elephant' is a covid deniers conspiracy theorist myth that has been debunked multiple times but is still parroted by ignorant celebrities despite having the facts explained to them.

The ONS paper details the issues in this paper which is about their random population sampling (the pillar 4 tests in the second link below, which are a tiny fraction of the total tests). The bulk of samples in the national figures are of symptomatic people so the number of false positives is even lower than this paper suggests (pillars 1 and 2).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/methodologies/covid19infectionsurveypilotmethodsandfurtherinformation/pdf

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

The real pandemic is covid, there isn't any doubt about that. We wouldn't have rocketing deaths from the common cold, if we were testing for it, because it doesn't kill people.

You are implying that thousands of doctors are breaking the law every day when completing death certificates in a coordinated conspiracy.

Offline maxf

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #46 on: December 31, 2020, 06:20:29 pm »
Quote
It cannot identify the difference between who is ill and who was ill who is infectious and not to mention the elephant in the room, false positives from over run labs

The majority of PCR tests are for people who are displaying symptoms of covid, thus it is more likely they have an active infection than a random sample of the public.  The false positive 'elephant' is a covid deniers conspiracy theorist myth that has been debunked multiple times but is still parroted by ignorant celebrities despite having the facts explained to them.

The ONS paper details the issues in this paper which is about their random population sampling (the pillar 4 tests in the second link below, which are a tiny fraction of the total tests). The bulk of samples in the national figures are of symptomatic people so the number of false positives is even lower than this paper suggests (pillars 1 and 2).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/methodologies/covid19infectionsurveypilotmethodsandfurtherinformation/pdf

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

The real pandemic is covid, there isn't any doubt about that. We wouldn't have rocketing deaths from the common cold, if we were testing for it, because it doesn't kill people.

You are implying that thousands of doctors are breaking the law every day when completing death certificates in a coordinated conspiracy.

Why the large difference between PCR and LFT results ?
And if claiming LFT is not fit for purpose then why is it being issued to NHS contractors ?

Why have a number of scientists said that anything over a cycle  threshold of 29 is unlikely to be an infectious case yet Wales one of the 'crisis centres' in the UK is using 45 cycles  and acheiving very large numbers of 'cases'.

How many genes are the UK testing for postive result to be reported ?

Lots of questions... No official answers just ever growing statistics...

How can labs scale up test capacity and maintain accuracy...?

I'm not denying that something isnt happening but im in the camp of its similar to what is to be expected in a bad flu year but with the added bonus of reduced staffing which links to the over testing.

Offline maxf

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #47 on: December 31, 2020, 06:27:13 pm »
The main symptoms being a cough and a high temperature ?

Its no wonder so many people go for test, along with all the people in their offices once they report to work that they are going for a test...

Offline maxf

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #48 on: December 31, 2020, 06:33:45 pm »
Please explain this with regard to pre and post death cause determination...


how to check monitor width and height

Offline droid

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #49 on: December 31, 2020, 06:43:01 pm »
Which brings me to one of my original statements in my firstpost in this thread questioning what the real pandemic is..

It has to be over testing....



That great virologist/epidemiologist Donald J Trump said that too.

Must be right then...
No longer 'Exceptionally antagonistic' 'Deliberately inflammatory'

 

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