Covid 19

ZombieCake

Well-known member
I do wonder if masks are part of the problem.  Please set aside the debate as to whether they work or not, or are just a state command and control mechanism.  From what I've observed people seem to think they're rendered immortal by wearing one, or any old bit of rag or scarf.  No social distancing, etc. etc.  The government propaganda doesn't help as it implies you're OK if you wear one.  Given the spike in infections since they were made compulsory it appears you aren't.  So back to common sense and lots of space might be better.  (I'm not a big crowd fan so don't mind staying in a bit more.)
There again this whole thing seems like trying to push back the ocean.
Where I am the test rate is now about 0.2% which is enough to generate mass panic as that's a huge risk now (I'm guessing the bad outcome rate is much lower, but who really knows).
People are tired of repetitive change and u-turns and inconsistent policies.  I think people are becoming more resentful and have little trust in the powers that be.  The scene was set early by idiots such as Cummings and Fergusson sticking two fingers up to the population and getting away with it, and continued inconsistency thereafter.  That's stuck to this day (Radio 2 thing today).  Hundreds of thousands are now unemployed, cancer screening etc. reduced. Last report I saw said suicide related emergency calls in London had doubled.
What is really needed now is the truth. Not propaganda, not knee jerk reactions, not made up numbers to get headlines, not frenzied media project fear, not skewed statistics or forecasts to aid one argument or another, not big business lobbying to add a few more billion to their shareholders accounts, just the truth. 
 

aardgoose

Member
Lockdown worked the first time.  Infection rates decreased, but against advice the government relaxed too much too quickly. They relaxed multiple measures at the same time which made it impossible to determine the measures' individual effectiveness. They introduced measures that were designed to increase consumer confidence 'Eat out to Help out' was primarily about confidence building, not assisting the hospitality trade. One study came to the conclusion that this probably added to new cases. The repeated mistake has been to see it as a trade off between infections and the economy. If you don't control infections the economy suffers anyway.

The public messaging has been atrocious with constantly changing and often contradictory rules. There was a constant desire to do what was popular rather than effective. The tier system wasn't backed by evidence eg the arbitrary and probably counterproductive curfew for pubs, and rules about substantial meals.

When, as predicted, infections increased again, we locked down too late.  Infection rates were increasing in the South East probably with the onset of the new variant at the time the last lock down ended.

Lockdowns do work _if_ followed/enforced but the messaging and dangerous disinformation, for example about the false positive rates of the PCR tests, spread by well known 'journalists' and celebrities has been very damaging. So it is true have been become progressively less useful, but the alternative is an overwhelmed health service. It's already at breaking point in London.

In two weeks time we sill see the results of the Christmas day mixing hit the figures. I don't expect them to be pretty.

Nobody wants lockdowns, but there aren't any other realistic solutions. Every time restrictions have been relaxed case numbers increase.

Fingers crossed the new Oxford/AtraZeneca vaccine can be rolled out quickly, by all accounts it is easier to manufacture and distribute than the other available vaccines.

 

RobinGriffiths

Well-known member
droid said:
Those that think lockdown doesn't work...

What will?

Soldiers at the end of your street probably. Can't see any other way that the great British public take the situation seriously. Of course, it would be a brave Prime Minister that would go down that route.
 

maxf

New member
In an audit of hospitals in August in Scotland the cases weren't quite what we were led to be believed as reported...

It is likely that the general public in the outside world is not the main source of input and infection for the hospitals....

https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/09/15/counting-people-in-hospital-with-covid-19/
 

aardgoose

Member
What is really needed now is the truth. Not propaganda, not knee jerk reactions, not made up numbers to get headlines, not frenzied media project fear, not skewed statistics or forecasts to aid one argument or another, not big business lobbying to add a few more billion to their shareholders accounts, just the truth.

Very much so. One thing we could do better is have separate press conferences for politicians and health professionals as they do in Germany.  Government stats production and explanations has been dire too.
 

pwhole

Well-known member
RobinGriffiths said:
droid said:
Those that think lockdown doesn't work...

What will?

Soldiers at the end of your street probably. Can't see any other way that the great British public take the situation seriously. Of course, it would be a brave Prime Minister that would go down that route.

There's a lot of streets in the UK and not that many soldiers. In many urban areas I suspect the soldiers would lose most battles that started. Unfamiliar territory etc.

Most of the doctors and scientists on the news seem to be telling the truth. Christina Pagel is doing a sterling job at keeping her rage just under control and putting out facts, however uncomfortable. Devi Sridhar too is doing a wonderful job, but the pain in her eyes is telling. I trust their opinions far more than any of the cabinet or any of their 'friends with benefits'. Not Housing Benefit, I should add.
 

mikem

Well-known member
Indeed, but their opinions are only looking at one side of the problem. There is no right answer and even medical professionals are only best guessing the solutions.
 

Fjell

Well-known member
The truth appears to be:

1. People won?t stand for being locked up for very long. As predicted back in Feb.
2. Very few people under the age of 60, and certainly 50, are affected seriously by the virus. People have twigged this now. That?s a lot of people.
3. Dumb luck plays a huge part. Back in March Germany were geniuses, now it is out of control there and they probably haven?t even got the new variant. Just think how much hot air was wasted on that.
4. Everything else is just media-driven shite.

FFIW, I think the MHRA have balls of steel for what they did today in reinterpreting the vaccine trial data. That?s the sort of concrete data point I need.

Granny#2 got the jab today. Hurray.
 

alastairgott

Well-known member
In my opinion (oh dear :coffee: ) tiers should have been implemented 10 months ago along with the quarantine of all people coming in from abroad. This would have avoided the need for a national lockdown.


Hindsight, I know, but then you would keep the caseload in hospitals slightly higher during the summer months than it was this summer. And then moving into September you move the country into a three day working week.


And (in my hypothetical country) if you really want to push the boat out, put "toll booths" on all entry points into large towns and cities. In the event of a local lockdown in that city/town people are only allowed to leave/enter if they hold an electronic tag that allows their vehicle to go to/from work crossing that boundary.


People kicking off at the "border" guards will have the tyres on their car popped electronically by government pop and (in)pound workers, who work from home on their laptops listenening into rowdy exchanges between border guards and mongs. Before pressing the button for the spikes.
You will be allowed your car back if it has more than 3months left to go till its next MOT. :blink:
 

JasonC

Well-known member
PeteHall said:
Mortality rates really aren't that unusual this year. Sure,  higher than last year, the worst in 10 years even (by 3%), but lower than 2008 and I don't remember that making headline news or forcing a national lockdown.
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor

So what happened in 2008?  I admit to only having skimmed the above link, but 2008 does stick out as a bad year.  I know it was the financial crash, but I don't recall a rash of stockbrokers jumping off tall buildings like they do in the cartoons, so what was it?
 

RobinGriffiths

Well-known member
The other thing to consider about Covid is that it's only been around for just over a year. We don't know what the long term prognosis is, whether Covid will come back year on year and give people another 'nip'. The vaccine might prevent illness, but won't necessarily prevent transmission. We've already seen that as we became sanguine about the Pfizzer vaccine a few months ago, that the virus still has some tricks up it's sleeve. Best play it safe I think.
 

mikem

Well-known member
2008 wasn't even that significant:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25
 

cap n chris

Well-known member
RobinGriffiths said:
The other thing to consider about Covid is that it's only been around for just over a year. We don't know what the long term prognosis is, whether Covid will come back year on year and give people another 'nip'. The vaccine might prevent illness, but won't necessarily prevent transmission. We've already seen that as we became sanguine about the Pfizzer vaccine a few months ago, that the virus still has some tricks up it's sleeve. Best play it safe I think.

Fellow caver, Hazel Barton, produced this right at the outset (watched 3 times at the commencement of the 1st Lockdown) - if you are going to watch it, watch every bit of it without breaking away/pausing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQZuCHIFZkQ

It is extremely educational.

CVs have been around a long time, are quite well understood - e.g. they are seasonal so the incidence of infection/transmission reduces significantly during dry/warm months, this means it's probably a fair prediction to say that the current international roll out of vaccine(s) will be heralded as a major success by end March/early April when the CV19 naturally dissipates anyway and the latter will be celebrated by the media/government as being because of the vaccine(s); by mid-October onwards there will be a natural return of CV19 variants and so further lockdown(s) next winter are highly likely "as a precaution" (best play it safe); Christmas as you knew it probably won't exist again this decade.
 

andrewmcleod

Well-known member
Everyone's a bloody expert.

I used to think that somehow we managed to put the most incompetent people in the country in government. Now I realise being loudly incompetent and thinking they know better isn't just limited to top politicians, it's a national sport.

People seem to have lost all ability to understand a situation fully. We do teach kids in school to try and understand the 'whys' of a situation, so why can't the adults manage it?

If Covid isn't really as bad as the government are saying, then why would a government that has spent the last ten years trying to lower the deficit through ideological reduction in state spending suddenly cripple the economy to try and deal with it?
If it's all some glorious conspiracy, to what end? And why would they make such a hash of it? Do we really believe the government is competent?

OR (using Occam's razor) is the following situation a better explanation
a) yes the government is incompetent (as most are)
b) nonetheless they are being advised by competent scientists (who, like all scientists, don't have all the answers)
c) the virus is full of suckiness and you really don't want to get it, whether you are old, have pre-existing conditions or just get long Covid.

There is one more thing to think about: countries like New Zealand and the SE Asian countries that have largely controlled SARS-COV-2 will not be the source of any significant new variants. We will be, as we are providing the breeding grounds for new potentially more transmissible (as we've seen) and potentially more deadly (fortunately not yet seen?) variants. Controlling the virus means preventing it getting worse, or escaping the vaccines.
 

andrewmcleod

Well-known member
Who want's long-lasting multi-organ damage in the relatively young? Not me.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4470

Estimates of one in twenty people getting symptoms for over 8 weeks.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

Long Covid is going to stop you going for significant exercise or caving for a while. That's not going to help anyone's mental health.
https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid

 
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