Over 70's to stay in for 3 months!

[paul]

This is also an article worth reading: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[LarryFatcat]

That 1% is not spread evenly though (from Imperial College document):

Age-group  % symptomatic cases      % hospitalised cases    Infection Fatality Ratio
  (years)    requiring hospitalisation    requiring critical care
00 to 09                0.1%                            5.0%                          0.002%
10 to 19                0.3%                            5.0%                          0.006%
20 to 29                1.2%                            5.0%                          0.03%
30 to 39                3.2%                            5.0%                          0.08%
40 to 49                4.9%                            6.3%                          0.15%
50 to 59                10.2%                          12.2%                          0.60%
60 to 69                16.6%                          27.4%                          2.2%
70 to 79                24.3%                          43.2%                          5.1%
80+                      27.3%                          70.9%                          9.3%

I don't believe these figures are totally accurate (as majority of very young will be taken to hospital to be checked out, whilst more in the middle groups won't be), but it does put you "in the ballpark".

What is the source of these stats? ie. Where can I find them online other than UK caving?

 

[paul]

That 1% is not spread evenly though (from Imperial College document):

Age-group  % symptomatic cases      % hospitalised cases    Infection Fatality Ratio
  (years)    requiring hospitalisation    requiring critical care
00 to 09                0.1%                            5.0%                          0.002%
10 to 19                0.3%                            5.0%                          0.006%
20 to 29                1.2%                            5.0%                          0.03%
30 to 39                3.2%                            5.0%                          0.08%
40 to 49                4.9%                            6.3%                          0.15%
50 to 59                10.2%                          12.2%                          0.60%
60 to 69                16.6%                          27.4%                          2.2%
70 to 79                24.3%                          43.2%                          5.1%
80+                      27.3%                          70.9%                          9.3%

I don't believe these figures are totally accurate (as majority of very young will be taken to hospital to be checked out, whilst more in the middle groups won't be), but it does put you "in the ballpark".

What is the source of these stats? ie. Where can I find them online other than UK caving?

The figures are included in the BBC web page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654 which are in turn sourced originally from Imperial College, London. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

 

[Speleotron]

Do these figures assume that there are proper hospital beds available?

 

[Speleofish]

The hammer and the dance is interesting. I don't know enough statistics or epidemiology to judge it properly, but it's a thought-provoking read!
I think Speleotron's implication that the statistics for covid assume a normally functioning health service is correct....

 

[Speleotron]

The hammer and the dance is interesting. I don't know enough statistics or epidemiology to judge it properly, but it's a thought-provoking read!
I think Speleotron's implication that the statistics for covid assume a normally functioning health service is correct....

That's what's been bothering me when people say 'don't worry it only kills old people'. Apart from the fact that they seem a bit heartless. I don't think we have proper data yet for when a health system is overwhelmed. This didn't really happen in Hubei as the Chinese gov flew in 50 thousand doctors and nurses and built 10 new hospitals in a fortnight. In Italy, france and spain the treatment for most is a camp bed in a warehouse so we will see how that impacts things in a month or so.

 

[mrodoc]

The problem is that we don't need GP's, we need anaesthetists as hospitalisation probably means ventilation. 

 

[LarryFatcat]

That 1% is not spread evenly though (from Imperial College document):

Age-group  % symptomatic cases      % hospitalised cases    Infection Fatality Ratio
  (years)    requiring hospitalisation    requiring critical care
00 to 09                0.1%                            5.0%                          0.002%
10 to 19                0.3%                            5.0%                          0.006%
20 to 29                1.2%                            5.0%                          0.03%
30 to 39                3.2%                            5.0%                          0.08%
40 to 49                4.9%                            6.3%                          0.15%
50 to 59                10.2%                          12.2%                          0.60%
60 to 69                16.6%                          27.4%                          2.2%
70 to 79                24.3%                          43.2%                          5.1%
80+                      27.3%                          70.9%                          9.3%

I don't believe these figures are totally accurate (as majority of very young will be taken to hospital to be checked out, whilst more in the middle groups won't be), but it does put you "in the ballpark".

What is the source of these stats? ie. Where can I find them online other than UK caving?

The figures are included in the BBC web page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654 which are in turn sourced originally from Imperial College, London. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

OK so it's actually here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[Speleotron]

Not too bad for most groups assuming hospital beds are available hence the efforts to broaden the peak. Looks a lot worse once the hospitals are full.

 

[mikem]

Italy has reported a reduction in deaths today.

The Imperial article was linked in here before I posted the figures.

 

[Speleotron]

Good news. Maybe this is the lockdown beginning to work.

 

[droid]

One swallow doesn't make a summer....

 

[Laurie]

I'm 77.
My relatives are my age.
My neighbour's 10 years older.
Supermarket deliveries are at least 3 weeks away.
If I can't go out for 3 months how do I survive?

 

[mikem]

Most places now have people offering to do shopping for them, if they can't themselves. Organised through local church, or community groups - I wouldn't trust anyone just turning up at the door. But, it is up to you whether you want to go out - food shopping is allowed.

 

[alanw]

Covid-19 Mutual Aid UK has a list of local support groups

https://covidmutualaid.org/local-groups/

 

[Speleotron]

I'm 77.
My relatives are my age.
My neighbour's 10 years older.
Supermarket deliveries are at least 3 weeks away.
If I can't go out for 3 months how do I survive?

The government is starting a service where the army or other volenteers will deliver food for you. At the moment it might just be for people with heath cobditions but I'm not sure.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-boris-johnson-community-hub-self-isolation-food-supply-uk-a9417091.html

 

[grahams]

I'm 77.
My relatives are my age.
My neighbour's 10 years older.
Supermarket deliveries are at least 3 weeks away.
If I can't go out for 3 months how do I survive?

Here in Grange in the South Lakes (aka God's Waiting Room) a community network is being set up. The first thing that has been done is the circulation of the email addresses and telephone numbers of all the local food producers and restaurants who will deliver to our doors.

We are all looking out for each other until this is over. Personally, I don't thank that will be too long. The Chinese sequenced the virus' genome at least three months ago and we have thousands of approved anti-virals which can be tested safely on people with the disease - no need for animal testing. In addition, untold ?Bns are being thrown at discovering new drugs worldwide. Production and distribution will be a problem but huge numbers of facilities are waiting to get the job done.

Apart from the human cost, the amount of money being lost to the world's economy is a powerful driver.

 

[royfellows]

I had my day out and never encountered anyone. But observed others through the car windows, out and about and together as though nothing wrong.

I live on my own and have stopped all visitors, only people I will see will be at local supermarket for essential shopping. I have no intention of getting this thing as it looks grim even if I have the good background health and the stamina to get through it.

 

[mrodoc]

Well, at least the sun is out helping to kill the virus.

 

[Fulk]

Is that based on actual evidence, rather than wishful think, doc?