Author Topic: Population decline  (Read 2105 times)

Offline royfellows

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Population decline
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:16:04 am »
Hi people

I have been saying this for some time and been laughed at by some.

Obviously has implications and I am interested to see what you all make of it on here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521

Obviously good for the environment, but serious implications for the economy.
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Offline JoshW

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2020, 11:50:01 am »
Quote
And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

wow that line really put it into perspective. Obviously this is based on the existing trends of reducing fertility rates continuing, which may not happen, chances are it will plateau somewhere probably around the break even level IMO.

will result in an increasingly ageing population, time to start looking at how the economy is structured, as we can't just keep increasing the state pension age to retain a working population. I'm already writing off receiving a state pension.

Offline royfellows

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2020, 11:56:45 am »
As I have said, I have been aware for some time, but mainly accredited it to developed countries where people would maybe rather have BMWs than babies.
But if its world wide, then it does point to infertility, which is rather more serious.
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Offline JoshW

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2020, 12:06:55 pm »
As I have said, I have been aware for some time, but mainly accredited it to developed countries where people would maybe rather have BMWs than babies.
But if its world wide, then it does point to infertility, which is rather more serious.

Don't think it's a case of infertility, think it's a matter of changing perspectives. There's some countries which are 'due' to increased three-fold, particularly in Africa. The US is 'due' to increase. Think it's a matter of changing attitudes, females (rightfully so) being able to make a choice as to whether kids is right for them or whether they want a career (not that it's impossible to have both) or neither.

I genuinely see it as the slow removal of the stereotypical gender roles, and it's a good thing. Also imagine the increased prevalence of contraceptives in lots of countries is helping.

Offline scurve

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2020, 12:24:48 pm »
Obviously good for the environment, but serious implications for the economy.

If it's a battle between the environment and the economy, I pick the environment.

Offline The Old Ruminator

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2020, 12:44:10 pm »
Even China's birth rate is now below replacement level.

Offline PeteHall

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2020, 01:28:25 pm »
If it's a battle between the environment and the economy, I pick the environment.

What about healthcare for the elderly?

This isn't just about "the economy" it is about the quality of life of future generations.

The planet is old enough to recover if humans (or every other species) die out, there have been mas extinctions in the past and look where we are now.

The only reason we really care about the environment is to protect the planet (as we know it) to offer a good quality of life for future generations of humans.

If we have an inverted population with many elderly and few young/ working age, there is a very serious concern for the quality of life of the human species, which is precisely what we are trying to protect through environmentalism.

Willie Stanton would no doubt have something to say on the matter: https://ukcaving.com/board/index.php?topic=20110.0
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Offline 2xw

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2020, 02:12:52 pm »
Perhaps the average life expectancy will decrease as we age and nobody can afford it. We can't carry on avoiding logistic growth curves forever

Offline royfellows

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2020, 03:04:10 pm »
I agree with Peter.

I can see a parallel with cave access. No access is the ultimate in preservation. but for what? If no one gets to see anything it may as well not be there. If there is no human life on the planet, there may as well not be a planet.
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Online Fulk

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2020, 03:16:04 pm »
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If there is no human life on the planet, there may as well not be a planet.

O wow!!! I daresay that if our lot weren't here, all the other animals would be having a much better time of it.

And if (as seems likely) there are other planets with life out in the Universe, are you seriously saying that without us, there's no point to them?

Offline JoshW

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2020, 03:16:45 pm »
If there is no human life on the planet, there may as well not be a planet.

may as well be no planet from human's perspective, but for a lot of other lifeforms, i'm sure they'd prefer it!

Perhaps the average life expectancy will decrease as we age and nobody can afford it. We can't carry on avoiding logistic growth curves forever

Think this is inevitable, but not within our lifetimes.

Offline JasonC

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2020, 03:50:48 pm »
IMO, this is fantastic news.  When you think about all the serious long-term problems facing us (ie not Covid), they are all exacerbated by the burgeoning human population, so it can and must decrease fairly rapidly but naturally, or else it will either decrease suddenly and unpleasantly, or the world we're left to live in will be completely trashed.

What about the elderly?  The trend is for people to stay healthier longer, so why not carry on working - part-time - after traditional retirement age?

For the same reason, I have personally always felt the money spent on IVF and fertility research to be mis-applied - better to spend on keeping the existing population healthy than add to it.  But I realise that might not be a popular view, so I'll say no more :)

Offline langcliffe

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2020, 04:49:25 pm »
I can see a parallel with cave access. No access is the ultimate in preservation. but for what? If no one gets to see anything it may as well not be there. If there is no human life on the planet, there may as well not be a planet.

Congratulations - that is probably the most anthropocentric statement I have come across! It is one with which I profoundly disagree, but that is neither here nor there.

Offline JoshW

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2020, 04:50:34 pm »
anthropocentric

that's my word for the day sorted.

Offline 2xw

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2020, 06:10:12 pm »
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Think this is inevitable, but not within our lifetimes.

dunno about you but I plan on living until 2060!

Quote
What about the elderly?  The trend is for people to stay healthier longer, so why not carry on working - part-time - after traditional retirement age?

This relies on there being enough jobs to sustain that. There's already people staying working for longer which is probably (pushed by automation) the reason for the proliferation of gig economy, zero hours, and "bullshit jobs".

We need to rethink the entirety of the way our society works. There will be a point where we don't need to work to sustain human life.

Online crickleymal

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2020, 06:17:18 pm »
If the human race dies out so be it. The planet will be the winner. I'm all for a reduction in our population,  about half the size would do it.
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Offline royfellows

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2020, 06:24:02 pm »
A lot of interesting and diverse opinions.

The economic reality is that we are talking a much smaller time scale, where say, immigration is unable to sustain population.
First casualty would be the construction industry with huge job losses, next the collapse of the housing market. Of course this would be bad news for existing owners with a mortgage, but better news for first time buyers.
Following this general manufacturing and the retail sector.

One thing that leaps out at me right away is those people who are against immigration. We would be in a right mess without it.
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Offline Robert Scott

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2020, 07:15:59 pm »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csz2xb

May be we can learn something from the Ache people of Paraquay?

Online pwhole

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2020, 08:04:03 pm »
I sincerely doubt that the planet will be a winner if the human race dies out. I suspect that it will not cope very well without us now, unless Planet of the Apes is the proposed model. But given even the smartest chimps are nowhere close to humans yet in terms of evolution and development of technologies (though we have taught them sign language which they're theoretically then able to teach their children), I can't see much progress for the planet without humans. We have physically and mentally evolved to this current level at an extremely rapid speed (relative to any other species) for a good reason, and it was pointed out in an earlier post - other planets. The lack of development in space is causing a logjam down here - we're still sat on the sofa getting fat, watching nonsense and scratching our arses when we should be working on space projects and progressing our expansion. The 'developing countries' (an ironic term) is now screeching to a halt going: 'What the hell are you lot still doing here?'.

Arguably we have already reached the point where most people don't actually need to work in jobs full-time - if at all. That's why the current crisis is terrifying to so many people in the 'developed countries', as they never thought there might actually be something else to do other than work, and now we're at that point, they can't think of anything else to do except more consumerism. And prioritising the elderly over the young is morally and intellectually indefensible, but 'we' still do it, even when we know it's wrecking everything long-term. Voting for your own execution is hardly appealing, but that isn't the only alternative. We should be worn out from a busy and productive life and die quickly from exhaustion, not be kept alive for another decade on life-support by avaricious (but kindly) organisations whilst they drain the inheritance (that was saved for the children) in care-home fees.

Similarly, voting for corrupt, ugly and mendacious monsters like Johnson, Trump, Putin, Xi, Duda and the entire rogue's gallery of foul bastards who currently lead most of the major countries of the world is a moral disgrace, but it's mostly the elderly, the comfortable middle-aged and the under-educated who do it. Changing the voting systems would partially sort it, but we won't - even the parties that know they should. Because they're frightened of the future, which must be the first time in human existence that the concept has ever existed.

Persuading younger people to start having more babies is an impossible sell until they can be convinced that it's worth it. I don't think it's fertility that's the issue, it's the cost. And the lack of any perceived obvious benefits from having children to many. I'm not young any more, but I've never been convinced by the idea of parenthood. Easier for a man to think that, maybe, as I can only inseminate. But obviously a single man could 'do the whole street' if truly necessary. If that sounds like I'm a nazi, imagine what it must be like to be able to vote for Boris Johnson comfortably.

During the Balkan wars in the early 90s, despite the main war policy of each sub-country within Yugoslavia being ethnic separation, the murder of fertile men and mass rape of women was carried out to an astonishing degree by all sides. It doesn't take much effort to work out what the net result of that genius move was. This tactic is adopted throughout ethnic wars, despite the obvious total stupidity of it from a separatist point of view. If religious, one could argue that 'God' is rather harsh and cruel to make people do such terrible things to each other. But if 'God' is actually DNA, then it makes perfect sense (to DNA) to mix up the races and sub-tribes as much as possible, as the best genetic outcomes will undoubtedly come from that, even if the means to the end is rather upsetting whilst it's ongoing. But how else would you persuade competing tribes and races to co-operate genetically other than by 'tricking' them?

Otherwise how do we really get to this? Those lyrics are so racially insensitive! No-one will ever get over it :halo:


Offline langcliffe

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2020, 08:41:07 pm »
I sincerely doubt that the planet will be a winner if the human race dies out. I suspect that it will not cope very well without us now, unless Planet of the Apes is the proposed model. But given even the smartest chimps are nowhere close to humans yet in terms of evolution and development of technologies (though we have taught them sign language which they're theoretically then able to teach their children), I can't see much progress for the planet without humans.

I think that the planet did rather well without us for its first 4.5 billion years.

Offline TheBitterEnd

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2020, 09:01:33 pm »
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Offline royfellows

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2020, 09:07:39 pm »
Looking at the BBC website its gone off the main news page with headlines being devoted to the latest machinations of White House, the virus, and the loss of a Banksy piece, all being considered more newsworthy.

Obviously, this issue fails the main test of there being neither money in it or any political mileage. I wonder how an asteroid heading for this earth would fare in the main stream media?
I suppose if it fell on the same day as the climax of a popular soap, my answer is badly.

Maybe we all deserve to die, and this and the virus is natures way.
We all die anyway, that is for sure, so we should attempt to get all we can out of life while we can.
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Online pwhole

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2020, 09:26:08 pm »

I think that the planet did rather well without us for its first 4.5 billion years.

In that way? It was mostly molten lava at that point, so hardly a fair comparison with 2020.

Offline langcliffe

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2020, 09:37:53 pm »

I think that the planet did rather well without us for its first 4.5 billion years.

In that way? It was mostly molten lava at that point, so hardly a fair comparison with 2020.

At what point? I said "for its first 4.5 billion years". Anyway, the Hadean eon was over after the first 500  million years.

Online pwhole

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Re: Population decline
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2020, 10:10:53 pm »
Yeah, sorry, I meant 'in what way' - that was a typo done in haste. But also agreed, I know it was slightly facetious in the time estimates, but I was trying to point out that we can never really know whether it was 'better' or not before humans were around, in the same way we can't really tell whether it was better 100 years ago - we are where we are as a species, and it's obvious we've left the rest behind in terms of physical evolution. Though we are the only species to now be able to accelerate the evolution of other species by interacting with them in more advanced ways - like teaching chimps sign-language. Dolphins, whales, elephants, horses and other large animals seem quite happy to hang out with us, given the opportunity, and I can't imagine it's just because they're hungry and we give them food - they can get that themselves, and they obviously enjoy the interaction.

I get a bit confused when we think of the planet as 'better off' without us, as the planet produced us, and even if there isn't a 'reason' for that, we may as well make the best of it. The Earth itself is only a transient location and it's halfway through already. And if the climate and environment continue to destabilise at current rates, it's probably a good idea to start thinking of other places humans can live apart from Earth - just in case  ;)

 

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