Author Topic: Covid 19  (Read 13037 times)

Online pwhole

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
  • TSG, DCA, PDMHS
    • Phil Wolstenholme website
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #200 on: January 10, 2021, 10:32:37 pm »
I'm starting to wonder, from a 'cosmic consciousness' perspective, whether there is an unconscious desire to get infected by many? Not necessarily to gain immunity, just to stay on-trend with the 'new thing'. More rational explanations don't seem to get us anywhere. In other words, DNA's making us do it... :blink:

My parents had their first jabs on Friday, I'm relieved to hear.

Offline Stuart Anderson

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2095
  • Yorkshire Subterranean Society - A.N.U.S.
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #201 on: January 10, 2021, 10:49:18 pm »
& do you think Corbin would have done any better?

Johnson can't be absolved of the utter shambles he's presided over with 'yeah buts'.
I've roamed and rambled and I've followed my footsteps
To the sparkling sands of her diamond deserts
And all around me a voice was sounding
This land was made for you and me

Online Duck ditch

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 326
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #202 on: January 11, 2021, 07:46:50 am »
I don’t think Corbin would have done better.  I think we might have got a better test and trace because we would have involved the NHS earlier.
There would have been more objections to a lockdown (trotsky revolution) and all that. So more people would be breaking the lockdown.
The people objecting to the lockdown are generally to the right and of course the anti maskers and covid deniers are right wing conspiracy theorists.

Online droid

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2391
  • WMRG
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #203 on: January 11, 2021, 08:21:24 am »

The people objecting to the lockdown are generally to the right and of course the anti maskers and covid deniers are right wing conspiracy theorists.

I disagree.

They are gullible


Aaaah...so they probably are right wing....
No longer 'Exceptionally antagonistic' 'Deliberately inflammatory'

Offline mikem

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 4134
  • Mendip Caving Group
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #204 on: January 11, 2021, 08:23:35 am »
Like most diseases the poor have suffered more than average, as they can't afford to isolate & live in closer proximity to each other, so many are just ignoring it.

Online Fjell

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 364
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #205 on: January 11, 2021, 09:29:48 am »
I don’t think Corbin would have done better.  I think we might have got a better test and trace because we would have involved the NHS earlier.
There would have been more objections to a lockdown (trotsky revolution) and all that. So more people would be breaking the lockdown.
The people objecting to the lockdown are generally to the right and of course the anti maskers and covid deniers are right wing conspiracy theorists.

It was the NHS that was strangely disinterested in rapidly increasing test capacity back in March. They were focussed on the test requirements for patients in hospital. I remember Hancock sticking his neck out to set “impossible” targets.

The UK’s test and trace has one of the highest success ratios in Europe. It doesn’t take much maths to estimate it. For countries which report deaths reasonably accurately (ie not Russia), the death rate is about 0.5% per case. So you should have 200 cases per death. If you look at the last 3 months (so you would think everyone has the kit), you can give it a go. The UK is doing much better than Germany and about the same as France (about 70). Most of the countries which experienced few deaths last spring are doing worse. This is obviously not entirely a surprise. Bitter experience makes a good teacher.

Offline Speleofish

  • addict
  • **
  • Posts: 143
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #206 on: January 11, 2021, 09:59:59 am »
The problem is not the testing per se, it's the speed of turnaround and the subsequent tracing. Unless you complete the whole cycle and persuade patients and their contacts to isolate in a timely fashion, test and trace has little value. The number of asymptomatic patients is also relevant: with about 1/3 of cases displaying no symptoms, it's difficult to target tests accurately and only mass screening has any value. In the early days of the pandemic there were too few tests available and the turn-around time was too long to make test and trace particularly helpful. The countries that did well had much greater supplies of test kits, better resourced public health services and, frequently, much more draconian approaches to enforcing isolation by contacts of patients.

Once the first wave had really started in London, there were so many cases that testing and tracing the public (with the technology available at the time) would have been impracticable. The reason the NHS concentrated on hospital patients was to try to reduce super-spreading events among staff and patients (these still occur - recently there were over 60 cases among staff and patients triggered by one asymptomatic admission in one of my local hospitals). At the time, we were anticipating an initial peak more than six times that we actually experienced and all of our strategic thinking was based on mitigating this. By comparison, the current peak is less than one quarter of the numbers we had been planning for.

I remain sceptical about the true value of test and trace in this situation. I concede that a good, rapid test may reduce the numbers of asymptomatic, infectious patients inadvertently spreading the virus but the lateral flow test is relatively insensitive. It is undoubtedly useful to give epidemiologists an indication of the prevalence of the disease and to show trends in disease numbers. Whether it will have any useful effect on the course of the epidemic is questionable.

Offline Cap'n Chris

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 12356
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #207 on: January 11, 2021, 10:39:59 am »
Vague pointers from the Government that this is continuing into May now. 2021 winter lockdown is pretty much assured too; the only people who are mentally ill are the ones who think this is ok.

Online Fjell

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 364
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #208 on: January 11, 2021, 10:42:29 am »
At best, with significant numbers of cases, something like 35% of cases are being found. It’s not enough to make a big difference. So, no, I don’t think test and trace is that helpful. The actual testing is useful obviously, but the tracing seems less so. I was doubtful from the get go on the tracing element given the pyschology.

The level of coercion and isolation required to suppress the virus is not feasible in Europe. The cure would clearly be way worse than the disease in the long term.

Just imagine if kids were dying. I have an enduring image of Chris Whitty falling to his knees every might and praying to all the gods that exist that it doesn’t start killing kids on his watch.

I’ve had malaria and typhoid, and lived in countries where you see kids dying every day in the town you are in. They tend to have a startling profusion of churches, because that’s about all you’ve got for most people.

Online droid

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2391
  • WMRG
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #209 on: January 11, 2021, 11:01:54 am »
Posted twice. Sorry  :wall:
No longer 'Exceptionally antagonistic' 'Deliberately inflammatory'

Online droid

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2391
  • WMRG
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #210 on: January 11, 2021, 11:05:12 am »
Vague pointers from the Government that this is continuing into May now. 2021 winter lockdown is pretty much assured too; the only people who are mentally ill are the ones who think this is ok.

You made a lot of sense in the CRoW debate.

But in this one you are talking b******s  :lol:
No longer 'Exceptionally antagonistic' 'Deliberately inflammatory'

Online NewStuff

  • Vocal proponent of Open Access
  • junky
  • ****
  • Posts: 820
  • www.dddwhcc.com
    • Deep Dark Dirty WetHoles
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #211 on: January 11, 2021, 11:09:46 am »
Vague pointers from the Government that this is continuing into May now. 2021 winter lockdown is pretty much assured too; the only people who are mentally ill are the ones who think this is ok.

Try watching someone with it. My missus has it, I almost certainly have it as well, and we're fastidious about masks, cleanliness, and we don't go anywhere that isn't absolutely necessary. Idiots like you treating this like a joke are the reason this is carrying on. I sincerely hope we meet to discuss this one day.
Permission? Wassat den?

Offline Cap'n Chris

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 12356
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #212 on: January 11, 2021, 11:42:01 am »
We've already had it. Yours sincerely, The Idiot.

Online Duck ditch

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 326
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #213 on: January 11, 2021, 11:54:21 am »
Testing is essential in order for people to carry out essential work and attempt a to keep the economy ticking over.  Maybe if we improve tests we could all meet up again. That’s why football is happening.  It doesn’t matter who who runs it as long as they do it properly.  Vaccination is essential to get This virus under control.  It doesn’t matter who makes it.  Labs are international.  More help for the labs as it deals with the mutations.

Meanwhile fingers crossed that it doesn’t mutate into something more deadly.
Of course capnchris and co will win the day and the virus will keep mutating and there is no end.  I was told early on that I’m too pessamistic yet we are where we are.

So

Come on everybody we (the human race) need to pull together.


Offline crickleymal

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 1100
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #214 on: January 11, 2021, 12:05:28 pm »
Vague pointers from the Government that this is continuing into May now. 2021 winter lockdown is pretty much assured too; the only people who are mentally ill are the ones who think this is ok.
Nobody thinks it's ok. We do think it's necessary  (assuming you're talking about lockdown). There's a subtle difference.
Malc
Rusted and ropy, dog-eared old copy.
Vintage and classic or just plain Jurassic:
all words to describe me.

Online pwhole

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
  • TSG, DCA, PDMHS
    • Phil Wolstenholme website
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #215 on: January 11, 2021, 12:59:19 pm »
If anyone found to have tested positive were to have an immediate payment of £100 per day paid into their bank account as they went into self-isolation - until they either tested negative or were taken into hospital and deemed critical, I'm sure that far more people would be prepared to comply. It's reverse psychology, but I suspect people would be far more willing to 'do their bit' and feel good about doing it, if they were paid to. After all, everyone else gets paid to give up their time when they're healthy. Many of us are sitting here not getting paid anything in order to protect others, and haven't been since the beginning - so if I were then asked to self-isolate as well 'for free', and had no symptoms, I can imagine that it might get a little fraught.

I have no idea whether I've ever had it, as I've never had any symptoms and so have never had a test. I suppose I could shuffle to the testing centre around the corner with a pretend cough, but it seems unfair if others really do have symptoms. I'd probably catch it at the testing centre anyway ;)

Online pwhole

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 2369
  • TSG, DCA, PDMHS
    • Phil Wolstenholme website
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #216 on: January 11, 2021, 01:08:21 pm »
Not wishing to use The Guardian as backup again, but they do operate without a paywall, so not much choice - but this is a good one. And our family at least all managed to not do Christmas and I'm so glad about that:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/11/england-covid-crisis-government-magic-bullet

Offline al

  • forum star
  • ****
  • Posts: 507
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #217 on: January 11, 2021, 01:16:42 pm »
My personal theory is that a large percentage of those who reckon that they've had it also reckon that that puts them "out of the game", i.e. they won't catch it again, and they cannot pass it on.

But, if their belief turns out to be wrong, that could account for part of the increase.
Old ... but not old enough to know any better

Offline Cap'n Chris

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 12356
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #218 on: January 11, 2021, 01:51:39 pm »
At the vaccination rate of 2million per week (requiring 2 x vaccinations per person) it'll be April next year (2022) before the populace gets the jab, meanwhile there will doubtless continue to be social distancing in place (to protect the NHS) which means many private sector businesses are facing extinction (and all the other consequences thereof which are too obvious to need to point out).

Online Duck ditch

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 326
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #219 on: January 11, 2021, 02:21:59 pm »
Exactly.  April 2022.  That’s why we need to test test test.  Businesses could get going if they test.  We need quicker results to the tests.  Let the labs get on with it. 
The virus might bypass the vaccine my mutating.  But it’s got to find. A host by infection.

This ain’t no party.  This ain’t no disco. This ain’t no fooling around.  As David Byrne puts it.

Offline Speleofish

  • addict
  • **
  • Posts: 143
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #220 on: January 11, 2021, 02:28:17 pm »
I think the key thing is to ensure that most of those vulnerable to very severe disease are vaccinated before easing restrictions. As far as mortality is concerned, that's the elderly and those with severe co-morbidities. As far as the NHS is concerned, it's the 50-70 year olds who are filling ICUs and bringing the system to breaking point. Provided they've all been vaccinated once, the numbers of deaths and in ICU should start falling. The NHS will still be under stress but should be able to cope which will allow a less narrow focus to the response - ie rather more consideration can be given to jobs and the economy. It should be possible to get one jab into everyone over 50 (and front-line staff) by end April 2021 (end March if they pull their fingers out). Thus, things could start to ease by end April and definitely by end May - unless they cock it up or vaccine deliveries fail.

Offline mikem

  • forum hero
  • *****
  • Posts: 4134
  • Mendip Caving Group
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #221 on: January 11, 2021, 02:57:56 pm »
Without lockdown (& the consequent furloughing) just as many businesses would have gone under, which would cost the taxpayer even more in benefits.

Offline nearlywhite

  • obsessive maniac
  • ***
  • Posts: 364
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #222 on: January 11, 2021, 03:31:29 pm »
It should be possible to get one jab into everyone over 50 (and front-line staff) by end April 2021 (end March if they pull their fingers out).

Just so people know, the 'they' in question is the vaccine production lines...
We are also the most vaccinated country so far if the statistics released last week were anything to go by

Offline Frog2

  • regular
  • *
  • Posts: 65
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #223 on: January 11, 2021, 04:27:14 pm »
According to OurWorldinData the UK is ranked 6th in the World for doses per 100 people,
But the UK data is at 3rd Jan compared to others being at 11th Jan or slightly earlier.

Current figs are
Israel       20.93 doses per 100 (11th Jan)
UAE              11.8 (11th Jan)
Bahrain      5.25 (10th Jan)
USA              2.02 (8th Jan)
Denmark           1.98 (9th Jan)
UK              1.94 (3rd Jan)

Using todays number of 2m people having been vaccinated, population say 67m means 2.99 per 100 and would put UK in 4th spot.
Or 3.58 per 100 if based on number of doses.

Offline Speleofish

  • addict
  • **
  • Posts: 143
Re: Covid 19
« Reply #224 on: January 11, 2021, 04:53:52 pm »
I'm surprised by USA - I hadn't realised they were so organised! If Boris' figures are accurate (approx 2.4 million doses given) UK figures would now be around 3.6/100.
Is the israeli data inclusive of Palestinians living in Israel? Similarly, in the Gulf states, do the figures refer to the small percentage of nationals or to the whole population (including the migrant workforce)?

 

Main Menu

Forum Home Help Search
SimplePortal 2.3.5 © 2008-2012, SimplePortal