Author Topic: QCovid  (Read 761 times)

Online Fjell

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QCovid
« on: February 17, 2021, 08:27:51 pm »
Since you’ve all got nothing to do, you can play with this. It’s the covid version of the QRisk app, if you are familiar with that. It even has the algorithm.

I have at least a ten times higher chance of dying of a heart attack than covid in the next three months if I compare them. So we are back to the self evident need for people to get some exercise. Who knew?

https://qcovid.org/Calculation

If you want the short answer, Type 2 is the highest risk factor and worse than some quite startling conditions.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2021, 08:43:04 pm by Fjell »

Offline Canary

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2021, 09:39:00 pm »
Is it just me or does that website seem very suspect?

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2021, 09:47:47 pm »
If you consider the NHS & Oxford Uni to be:
https://digital.nhs.uk/coronavirus/risk-assessment/population

Offline ZombieCake

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2021, 11:08:14 am »
Seem there's more chance of getting splattered in a car crash or getting some other horrible condition.
If the numbers are reasonably reliable it's a 0.03 per cent chance when I ran them, which seems remarkably low given where we are.
I do sometime wonder if paranoia and other interests have overtaken practicality and pragmatism.  Difficult to tell from all the media spin.

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2021, 11:16:32 am »
There's still 21,000 people in hospital & 2,700 on ventilators (we only had just over 4,000 ICU beds at start of this), just need to wait for the flu season to end.

Offline Speleofish

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2021, 11:55:05 am »
Following Zombiecake's post, it's not the absolute risk of getting Covid that's the problem, it's the potential for a further major outbreak.

Overall, less than 20% of the population are believed to have had the disease so far and a similar number have been vaccinated. Therefore, 60% of the population have no protection. 'Herd Immunity' probably needs 85-90% of the population to be protected. The highest risk categories who have already been vaccinated aren't great contributors to general disease transmission as most of them have been relatively shielded. In a few weeks' time, most of those at greatest risk of death will have been vaccinated so it would be possible to relax restrictions even in the expectation this would cause a further outbreak among the young and 'healthy'. This will lead to a further rise in hospital admissions and deaths, though hopefully peaking at a much lower level than the most recent outbreak. Similarly, there will be a rise in people with long Covid. It probably wouldn't break the NHS but would definitely delay the time the NHS started to get back to normal and would have a major impact on the already huge waiting lists.

This may be a price worth paying if the economic, psychological, social and political gains of re-opening society outweigh the costs of letting the disease loose again. However (1) I suspect the government will be especially cautious as they have been so over-optimistic on several occasions in the past and have little credibility left and (2) the risk that further mutations in the virus will invalidate some or all of the benefits we have seen so far. How serious this risk is, I don't know but there is an influential group of virologists and epidemiologists who are arguing for a very, very cautious approach.

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2021, 12:03:46 pm »
More virulent strains will obviously extend the "flu season"
« Last Edit: February 18, 2021, 12:20:10 pm by mikem »

Offline SamT

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2021, 12:16:30 pm »

I have at least a ten times higher chance of dying of a heart attack than covid in the next three months if I compare them. So we are back to the self evident need for people to get some exercise. Who knew?


Lets hope the lockdown continues to work, then and the numbers continue to decline, so that when you have your heart attack, or get hit by that bus, the nurses and doctors can give you the attention and dedication you've come to expect from them.

Offline pwhole

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2021, 12:22:19 pm »
However - there's far less uptake of the vaccine among members of the BAME community, a large proportion of NHS staff overall. This feature on C4 News the other night was a bit alarming as it suggests that even within hospital staff the take-up is much lower:

https://www.channel4.com/news/study-suggests-vaccine-take-up-at-hospital-trust-lower-among-black-and-asian-staff

So we could end up with a situation where every racist old granny in Britain starts refusing to be treated by BAME staff in hospital. And you know where that leads. Even outside the hospital environment, the effects on society could be similar if that mistrust starts running backwards and white (vaccinated) folks start avoiding black and brown (maybe not vaccinated), etc. Not what we really need right now, especially when the Black Lives Matter campaign will be essentially running the opposite story. The leader of the study says that "I'm no expert on ethics". Neither am I, but I'm not bad, after half a century on the planet.

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2021, 12:23:25 pm »
Well at least the chances of getting run over by a bus have lessened (for most people)

Offline pwhole

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2021, 12:27:58 pm »
There's possibly a higher chance of a bus driver falling asleep at the wheel from utter boredom or loneliness ;)

Offline paul

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2021, 12:33:45 pm »
Your chances of dying form non-Covid related causes may differ on an individual basis.

HOWEVER:

The point to bear in mind during a pandemic like this the question you should be asking is not "Will I get Covid and die or have a major illness or  long term effects?". It should be "If I get Covid, symptomatic or not, will I infect someone else?"
I'm not a complete idiot: some parts are missing!

Online Fjell

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2021, 12:46:19 pm »
I put our parents in the tool, and one of them came out at 1 in 30 chance of death (ie would die if they got it). Good thing we locked them in a cupboard until they were jabbed. Waiting on second jab still for more comfort.

Still leaves the fact that the only real lever outside of vaccines is weight (and thus diabetes). No progress on that front in the UK. Something needs to be done for the long term.

Offline ZombieCake

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2021, 01:37:21 pm »
There's still a lot of mixed messages coming out.  Government are now saying there's never been an outbreak related to people massing on beaches  https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-covid-19-outbreaks-beaches-132834386.html  despite the hysteria at the time that people that do so are killing people.  That also seems to have been the case with all those statue toppling protest in 2020 that didn't result in mass outbreaks.  (By the way I don't go to beaches, I'm spending most time indoors.)
Yet everyone is pretty much banned from going outside except for minimal periods.  Maybe fresh air and sunlight exposure isn't so bad after all?>
Really a detailed independent and regularly revised media spin free break down of all factors, e,g. age, location, weight, ethnicity, population density, pre-existing health conditions, where they might have caught it (care homes, etc.), positive tests vs hospitalisation or death, real test accuracy, and so on is needed rather than blanket extrapolated numbers, and the constant panic driven go out side and you'll kill someone mantras.  Maybe that info exists and there's a reluctance to publish it.  Who knows.

Offline andrewmc

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2021, 01:52:25 pm »
There's still a lot of mixed messages coming out.  Government are now saying there's never been an outbreak related to people massing on beaches  https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-covid-19-outbreaks-beaches-132834386.html  despite the hysteria at the time that people that do so are killing people.  That also seems to have been the case with all those statue toppling protest in 2020 that didn't result in mass outbreaks.  (By the way I don't go to beaches, I'm spending most time indoors.)
Yet everyone is pretty much banned from going outside except for minimal periods.  Maybe fresh air and sunlight exposure isn't so bad after all?>
Really a detailed independent and regularly revised media spin free break down of all factors, e,g. age, location, weight, ethnicity, population density, pre-existing health conditions, where they might have caught it (care homes, etc.), positive tests vs hospitalisation or death, real test accuracy, and so on is needed rather than blanket extrapolated numbers, and the constant panic driven go out side and you'll kill someone mantras.  Maybe that info exists and there's a reluctance to publish it.  Who knows.

I don't disagree with the principle.

The problem is that the execution relies either on a very complicated set of rules, or people to use their common sense.

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2021, 02:00:52 pm »
Plus that is what is required to control it in inner cities & if they don't see it happening elsewhere, then there is no chance there (& many aren't, which is one reason it's taking so long)

Offline pwhole

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2021, 04:30:30 pm »
I'm outdoors for hours a day, every day, as I can't see any point in staying inside if I'm on my own and I don't have to do work during the daytime - I've got all night too! Fresh air, exercise and sunlight is better than anything else if you don't need to spend money on entertainment. One of my friends, a freelance musician, hasn't really left the house since last March, and he sounds shocking on the phone now. He is fundamentally very lazy and unfit, and somewhat anti-social anyway, but he's essentially used the pandemic as an excuse to do absolutely nothing but smoke and watch TV. So half our phone chat is just him coughing. I smoke, but he's ridiculous.

I tried to persuade him to meet me for a walk to get some fresh air, as nicely as I could, on the premise that it would be good to see him 'in person', but he flatly refused on grounds of potential 'contamination' or something. And that walking up and down his stairs was more than enough exercise. Bollocks. He's just gonna die soon anyway from all the other health problems he's developing far faster. I know for a fact he'll start whinging about the vaccine too when it's his turn, but hopefully his wife (who works for the council and so more grounded in reality) will crack him around the head and drag him down to the doc's. I'll help her if she asks.

Offline ZombieCake

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #17 on: February 18, 2021, 08:00:02 pm »
Looks like the Home Office doesn't even know the law or rules or guidelines:

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/home-office-grossly-misstates-law-133731450.html

Makes it much harder to know what to do.  Somewhat scary.

Online mikem

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #18 on: February 18, 2021, 09:10:06 pm »
That is what the government originally suggested, but didn't legislate.

Online kay

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2021, 09:02:23 am »
Yet everyone is pretty much banned from going outside except for minimal periods.  Maybe fresh air and sunlight exposure isn't so bad after all?
The law places no limit on the time you can spend outside

Offline pwhole

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2021, 11:19:55 am »
Exactly - put your boots on, take a sandwich and leave the house, preferably in a direction you don't normally go. Come back when it gets dark. Nobody will do anything and you'll have a nicer time than sitting indoors hitting chat forums.


Offline Duck ditch

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Re: QCovid
« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2021, 06:56:27 pm »
I agree about the mixed messaging.  Fresh air and keeping fit must be good for most health issues.  Keeping your distance and wearing masks indoors I felt was a good general rule.  I can’t see the rules changing any time soon.  Bubbles soon hopefully.  I would have locked down harder including borders to prevent mutations in and out. Hoping for a quicker drop in the infection rate.

Anyway I have just had my first vaccination.  It was very well organised with a good atmosphere.  This part of the covid saga is still going well and surely will help us get back to normal.

 

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