Covid 19

Speleofish said:
... especially as we haven't yet seen the full effect of the new variant outside the south-east.
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North Wales (Wrexham, Flintshire) is getting hammered with it if reports are accurate.
 
The peak seems to be caused by shopping for christmas.  There was a lot of pressure at Christmas in the end to not get together.  I think people took heed.  Let?s hope the infections start to drop. 
 
mikem said:
Indeed, but we are far enough after Christmas that we can discount it having had the effect that people were worried about.
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The JBC recon 6 to 8 weeks before impacts show up in national results- so I wouldn't count your turkeys yet
 
The thing I find most concerning in the JBC (Joint Biosecurity Centre - Porton Down) data is the small percentage of new variant cases outside England up to 2nd Jan (most English cases seem to be new variant). Northern Ireland is nearly 50:50. Wales had very few new variant cases and they were in a minority in Scotland.
 
StealthYak said:
The JBC recon 6 to 8 weeks before impacts show up in national results- so I wouldn't count your turkeys yet
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When did they make that statement, as it was certainly true before test results came online? - I'm not so sure it is now...
 
Sky News ran a feature this morning on the vaccination programme in Indonesia. They're using SinoVac, the Chinese vaccine, and they're inoculating the other way around - as in the young first, as they're the drivers of the economy, and then the old and the more 'risky'. The total opposite to us. They do have a younger demographic and a relative economic disadvantage to us - and a giant mega-economy trying to buy them up and keep them 'Eastern', so it's going to be an interesting 'experiment' - watch this space.
 
mikem said:
StealthYak said:
The JBC recon 6 to 8 weeks before impacts show up in national results- so I wouldn't count your turkeys yet
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When did they make that statement, as it was certainly true before test results came online? - I'm not so sure it is now...
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I got of from a friend who heads up one of the coordination roles there.  The test results might be quicker, but it still takes a long time for the effects of policy to  ripple through the population.
 
Yes, again most policies do, but I think Xmas shutdown was probably better observed than most. I do agree that we won't know for sure for a while longer.
 
mikem said:
Yes, again most policies do, but I think Xmas shutdown was probably better observed than most. I do agree that we won't know for sure for a while longer.
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Might have been better observed where you live, but it was mobbed with tourists here in High Peak for the whole of the Xmas week. No pubs, no cafes, just enormous "family" groups blocking the roads with their cars and crowding the paths and lanes.
 
mikem said:
Indeed, but did they mix with the locals or keep to themselves?
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They certainly didn't keep themselves to themselves. But mixing with locals? Only if you count barging past people, almost as though the pandemic was over.
 
I counted 8 skiers simultaneously on the hill above our house yesterday. In 1? of snow, skiing from tussock to tussock as I walked past them. One of them was trying to kite ski, and am pretty sure there were huskies too.

Desperate measures.

Meanwhile the kids were having a snowball fight on Woodhouse moor from what I could see.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/weather/video-shows-huge-snowball-fight-happening-woodhouse-moor-leeds-3101243
 
There?s good money out there for young jabbers. One of mine is getting ?200 a day for whacking in a 100 jabs. Nothing much to spend it on either.
 
Well, we have been in lockdown for two weeks and only a 25% drop.  Poor.  Hospital admissions and deaths will surely follow that which is still way too high.

I suspect a lot of transmission is taking place in health and care facilities and in the work place.  Also amongst the socially disadvantaged where people live together in larger groups and there are many reasons where it is difficult to keep apart from others.

I don't think a few people walking on Ingleborough or around some reservoir in the Peak District are the problem.  What do you think?
 
My impression is that most front-line care and health workers have now been vaccinated. All the ones we have anything to do with have been including the visiting carers. All the residents and staff of the two care homes we deal with have been done. Even one of my kids as had it.

There seems a gap of at least 1.5 million between the number of older people they say have been vaccinated and the number of first doses, so that must be the workforce (and they are easy to vaccinate).

If they carry on anything like this then by the end of the month they will be deep into those at high risk.

The biggest category between me and a jab is the 7 million under 50?s deemed at higher risk. It seems a startling number.
 
If we weren't doing anything it would likely be increasing exponentially, so any drop is better than that.

Small numbers of people out walking aren't the problem, but people traveling from the worst affected areas are...

The majority of fines are those who are gathering together, but it's the walkers who the papers consider more newsworthy (especially as many are still going to honeypot sites)
 
Badlad said:
Well, we have been in lockdown for two weeks and only a 25% drop.  Poor.  Hospital admissions and deaths will surely follow that which is still way too high.

I suspect a lot of transmission is taking place in health and care facilities and in the work place.  Also amongst the socially disadvantaged where people live together in larger groups and there are many reasons where it is difficult to keep apart from others.

I don't think a few people walking on Ingleborough or around some reservoir in the Peak District are the problem.  What do you think?
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We've quite clearly just seen the post Christmas spike that every man and his dog, barring the government saw coming.  Thankfully, its clear numbers are falling again.  Principally, I think due to the schools being closed.  My 13 year old son could look at the graph and hazard a guess as to why the numbers skyrocketed from the start of September.

This lockdown is nowhere near as effective as the last one, in terms of people being captured by the spirit of it.  No one in one out queues outside the supermarkets, like last time.  Roads still busy etc.

Thanks fully, we do now have vaccines and I hate to admit it, but it seems to be the one and only thing the government seem to have nailed.  Pride comes before a fall though, so I'm still healthily pessimistic that somehow the government are going to cock this up too.  I'm sceptical about why over countries seem to be holding back, yet we're going at it full steam ahead.  Its quite impressive really.  My wife had hers at weekend. NHS staff and whilst doesn't see front line 'people' does deal with 'live' samples. 


 
10 months ago Whitty and Vallance plainly stated that vaccines were the only answer and that everything else was just a holding pattern. And also that you cannot lock up the population for long periods without enormous collateral damage, not the least of which is to children. We are going to spend years trying to fix the damage done to young people.

The BBC has already concluded that it wasn?t Xmas that caused a surge, it was already happening due to the new variant. Basically we have two pandemics, and the first one is under control - but not the second. Shit happens.

The UK has put more effort into the vaccine planning than anywhere else in Europe, and that really is more than a little strange.
 
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