Is it OK to go caving?

[darren]

The latest mortality surveillance report from PHE shows deaths back within the normal range across England, Wales and NI.

Excess mortality was seen in Yorkshire and Humber, and East Midlands regions.

This will be in next Tuesday?s ONS data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020


As you will probably guess, these are not my own words. they are from "stuart mcdonald
@ActuaryByDay" on twitter. Yes I know what most people think of twitter sauces but this is a front man for
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group@COVID19actuary.

Regardless of who he is the linked Public Health England document states ", no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed" last week.

 

[Chocolate fireguard]

The latest mortality surveillance report from PHE shows deaths back within the normal range across England, Wales and NI.

Excess mortality was seen in Yorkshire and Humber, and East Midlands regions.

This will be in next Tuesday?s ONS data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020


As you will probably guess, these are not my own words. they are from "stuart mcdonald
@ActuaryByDay" on twitter. Yes I know what most people think of twitter sauces but this is a front man for
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group@COVID19actuary.

Regardless of who he is the linked Public Health England document states ", no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed" last week.

But have they taken into consideration that many of the people who would normally have died in that week actually died earlier, when the death rate from all causes was up to twice that to be expected?
So now (and for some considerable - but unknown - time to come) the expected death rate will be lower (by an unknown amount).
I had a look, but I couldn't find any mention.
But I am not a statistician.

 

[darren]

But I am not a statistician.

We have something in common, I also am not a statistician.

I have no personal knowledge of this but I sort of assumed (possibly recklessly) that Public Health England might employ one or possibly more statisticians.

Analysis of deaths so far has shown that over 90% of those who have died were living independently (whatever that means) and had a life expectancy of around 10 years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

Even old people who have a serious illness tend to hang around for years before dying. I know 3 old people (70+) 1 has dementia, 1 impaired Kidney function and the other no gallbladder ( I think it might be something else missing, not sure) and can't eat red meat or drink alcohol. All the above would be included on death certificate as compounding illness. None of them seem likely to die in near future.

 

[The Old Ruminator]

But I am not a statistician.

We have something in common, I also am not a statistician.

I have no personal knowledge of this but I sort of assumed (possibly recklessly) that Public Health England might employ one or possibly more statisticians.

Analysis of deaths so far has shown that over 90% of those who have died were living independently (whatever that means) and had a life expectancy of around 10 years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

Even old people who have a serious illness tend to hang around for years before dying. I know 3 old people (70+) 1 has dementia, 1 impaired Kidney function and the other no gallbladder ( I think it might be something else missing, not sure) and can't eat red meat or drink alcohol. All the above would be included on death certificate as compounding illness. None of them seem likely to die in near future.

Ooo you cheeky monkey Darren. I am 73 . Not old or ruddy vulnerable. Or needing shielding or locking up in a home. I do definitely have something missing though.

 

[darren]

Meant to say even those who died with compounding factors could have had years of active life if they haven't caught Covid.

Real people with real lives. Not people who you should shrug and say they would have died soon anyway.

 

[Chocolate fireguard]

Real people with real lives. Not people who you should shrug and say they would have died soon anyway.

Dear oh dear! I have upset you haven't I?
And when I read what I put:

"But have they taken into consideration that many of the people who would normally have died in that week actually died earlier, when the death rate from all causes was up to twice that to be expected?
So now (and for some considerable - but unknown - time to come) the expected death rate will be lower (by an unknown amount).
I had a look, but I couldn't find any mention.
But I am not a statistician."

I haven't the slightest idea why.
Do you?

 

[Duck ditch]

I?m all for people going caving etc.  Just understand people are at different stages for many different reasons.  It?s about being considerate.
Stats are stats.  People are people. 

 

[darren]

Real people with real lives. Not people who you should shrug and say they would have died soon anyway.

Dear oh dear! I have upset you haven't I?
And when I read what I put:

"But have they taken into consideration that many of the people who would normally have died in that week actually died earlier, when the death rate from all causes was up to twice that to be expected?
So now (and for some considerable - but unknown - time to come) the expected death rate will be lower (by an unknown amount).
I had a look, but I couldn't find any mention.
But I am not a statistician."

I haven't the slightest idea why.
Do you?

This is getting complicated.  Your quote is my reply to my old mate The Old Ruminator and clarifys my privious post that he humourously took out of context.

In my original post I was trying to say that the excess deaths have been brought forward by around 10 years in most cases and possibly more in others.

So an excess of 60,000 deaths over 10 years is 6000 a year.  Average yearly deaths are 500,000 so 6000 is around 1%. Not statistically significant.

Glad we've cleared that up 🤗🤗

 

[mikem]

Start of week we were averaging 200 covid deaths per day, now down to about 175, so still over 1000 per week.

There are also still a lot less accidental deaths than normal, as most people are being more cautious.

 

[pwhole]

Some people are still making a concerted effort to be less cautious. I doubt they were playing banjo music at these events but they should have been.:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53040827

 

[mikem]

Yes, but that's pretty normal activity for the time of year.

 

[bagpuss]

Maybe it is just Dales cavers taking this approach

Certainly not. I am prepared to stick my neck on the line and admit that I've been underground a few times since travel distance for exercise was relaxed. I know I'm not the only one in Mendip doing the same.

Since I do not live in Wales (despite being 15 minutes from the border, I have not been caving in Wales, though I know of people who live close enough to do so within the rules and are doing so.

I fully respect those who do not feel comfortable going caving at the moment, for whatever reason, but we do still live in a free country where we can make our own choices about the risks we take.

Some people are very risk averse at the best of times, most probably wouldn't consider caving at all. Personally, I don't consider caving to be a particular risk if treated with respect. The same is as true now,  as it always is.

I don't think I'm particularly risk adverse, I've been outdoor swimming (well within my limits and locality) quite a few times since lockdown measures were eased. My worry about caving (which is why I've not been underground) is that I don't want to unintentionally upset any land owners by caving or go against the advice/opinion of the local rescue team (alongside concerns about the virus itself). If Corona virus is going to be with us for a long time it would be good at some stage in the future to have conversations about how caving can begin to take place on Mendip and what precautions could be followed. Maybe that will follow later in the year. I'm happy to be content with hiking and swimming, but when other areas are talking about how caving can be managed in the future alongside living with the virus, I wonder why Mendip isn't included?

 

[PeteHall]

when other areas are talking about how caving can be managed in the future alongside living with the virus, I wonder why Mendip isn't included?

The MCR do seem to be remarkably anti-caving at the moment; I wonder if the top-down structure and the higher-risk age group of those at the top may have a significant impact on the current stance... 

I don't recall seeing anything at all from the CSCC, besides re-posting statements from others on their facebook page. I have tried to contact the CSCC conservation & access officer in relation to the claim by MCR that "most" caves are closed and specifically in relation to the conflicting messages about whether Swildon's Hole is closed by the land-owner. So far I have received no response.

Mendip certainly seems to be behind the curve in terms of policy and information sharing.  :-\

 

[Alex]

Quote from: bagpuss on Today at 03:40:17 pm
when other areas are talking about how caving can be managed in the future alongside living with the virus, I wonder why Mendip isn't included?

The MCR do seem to be remarkably anti-caving at the moment; I wonder if the top-down structure and the higher-risk age group of those at the top may have a significant impact on the current stance... 

I don't recall seeing anything at all from the CSCC, besides re-posting statements from others on their facebook page. I have tried to contact the CSCC conservation & access officer in relation to the claim by MCR that "most" caves are closed and specifically in relation to the conflicting messages about whether Swildon's Hole is closed by the land-owner. So far I have received no response.

Mendip certainly seems to be behind the curve in terms of policy and information sharing.  :-\

Well they are a bit special down there...ohh arrr.

 

[mikem]

They can at least cope with quotes  :tease:

 

[Laurie]

They're forecasting high twenties for the middle of next week.
Is that a fair excuse to go underground?

 

[mikem]

Do you need one? 

 

[JamesM]

The MCR do seem to be remarkably anti-caving at the moment; I wonder if the top-down structure and the higher-risk age group of those at the top may have a significant impact on the current stance... 

I don't recall seeing anything at all from the CSCC, besides re-posting statements from others on their facebook page. I have tried to contact the CSCC conservation & access officer in relation to the claim by MCR that "most" caves are closed and specifically in relation to the conflicting messages about whether Swildon's Hole is closed by the land-owner. So far I have received no response.

Mendip certainly seems to be behind the curve in terms of policy and information sharing.  :-\

I've done a couple of days trips down Swildons the past couple of weeks with the consent of the landowner. Had a lovely chat to the farmer and his wife one morning whilst passing who said that whilst it had been officially closed, he couldn't see any reason why I couldn't go down there now, as long as the goodwill fee was paid! He did check if I was actually a caver and a member of a local club. I don't know where it stands for general access though, but it was easy enough for 2 of us to social distance down there.

If you don't ask, you don't get!