Mossdale.

It wasn't my generation (I was just a very young child at the time) but I know a lot of people who are still around and active on the caving scene who lost six very good friends in that flood. Some of them go up there every year. There's also a great many locals in the dale who remember it. I tend to agree with Lankyman that if it's going to be done, it must be done well - and sensitively. However, information about the accident will never "disappear" - there's a great many contemporary accounts in caving publications which will always bear testamant to the magnificent effort to try to save those six cavers. There are audio recordings available by people who were directly involved in the rescue effort and also at least one documentary in existence.

There are lots of examples on You Tube of how video coverage of such tragedies should not be done. The people who produce them don't seem to spare a thought that loved ones or close friends are likely to see these videos, which often reduce the tragic stories of how fellow human beings lost their lives to the status of trivial entertainment. Some of them are just awful.

Please understand; I've no reason to suspect that those interested in making this film aren't going to make a good job of it. But what could be the possible negative effects on the caving community? Will it underline how "dangerous" caving "is"? (In which case I hope it slips under BCA's insurers' radar.) Would it influence the ability for cavers to visit in the future? (Think carefully about this latter point.) I'm perhaps not the only caver who is at least a bit wary of such a project.
If anything this could have the opposite affect on insurers as it could be highlighted how the 67 disaster was a collection of limitations of the time in weather reporting and a lack of an organised rescue team. These days were so much better prepared in terms of equipment and weather forcasting and this could be highlighted.
 
As an aside I actually tackled one of the “disaster porn” producers on YouTube over their inaccuracy and general mawkishness for clicks and likes (specifically over the low birkwith incident as it’s one I was present for). Made no difference I suspect but I felt better! 🙃
 
Worth mentioning Dan has been down Mossdale, at least as far as rough chamber.
Yep and it was also higher than normal water that day (obviously not raining), the first drown or glory was almost sumped, so good on him!
 
For me the acid test/question would be something along the lines of "Will it serve a useful or productive purpose beyond morbid curiosity?". And is there a significant likelihood of condemnation towards caving by the viewing public after airing? One day it would be nice to imagine it being a prerequisite that any media item about a caving disaster has to run in tandem with a showing of a good news item.
 
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If anything this could have the opposite affect on insurers as it could be highlighted how the 67 disaster was a collection of limitations of the time in weather reporting and a lack of an organised rescue team. These days were so much better prepared in terms of equipment and weather forcasting and this could be highlighted.

'Fraid I must comment on this. I don't think the 67 disaster was anything to do with the level of organisation of any rescue team. It happened suddenly and I think by the time the alarm was raised it was sadly too late. I also don't think quality of equipment had anything to do with the outcome either.

So that leaves the quality of weather reporting which you suggested. Was that a significant factor, really? Even today we have difficulty predicting the location and severity of localised convectional rainfall events at that time of year, long enough in advance to make confident decisions on the wisdom of committing to long duration caving trips in flood liable systems.

It may be that, in this particular case, it's difficult to argue it'd be any different nowadays. Indeed, because of climate change, it may actually be more difficult to predict the effects of weather events at that time of year.

What might perhaps be argued convincingly is that cavers have learned from the tragedy and are generally better at recognising the sort of conditions which could lead to such an accident. I hope so.
 
A few years ago CRO received a report of problems in the Long Churn / Alum Pot area due to heavy rain. They were at a complete loss as there was bright sunshine in Clapham. They arrived at Selside to find there had been a very localised and very heavy downpour there.
 
In 2008 there was a cloudburst over Ingleborough during the BPC winch meet. There are videos of Fell Beck in flood

A party was down P8, about 800m away. There it was, very fortunately, totally dry.

There were two CRO callouts on that day: Sunday May 11.
From https://cro.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/CRO-Incidents-2001-2010-compressed.pdf
A party of four walkers (m, 28, 23; f, 27, 21) making their way up Swine Tail got caught by a very intense localised
thunderstorm and called for assistance. They had unfortunately left their waterproofs in the car due to the hot sunny weather,
and only had a picnic blanket as shelter from the hail and torrential rain.

and
a call came in concerning a caving group probably trapped by flooding in the Long Churn Caves. Initial investigation confirmed very
high water levels following a thunderstorm


Was this the Long Churn incident Paul was referring to?
 
Wasn't it Pay Sank they were in? I'm glad you quoted that example alanw because I have my own memories of that particular GG weather event. I witnessed it from my back yard. I was standing in T shirt and shorts in the bone dry gazing in awe at a solid wall of rain a mile away on Ingleborough, beneath thick black clouds. There were frequent lightning strikes and crashing thunder; I'd have enjoyed the spectacle were it not for my great concern for you folks, as I knew it was your club's prelim. Dave Haigh tells the tale in one of the sections he wrote in Adventures Underground 2, including about the very worried Bradford members who hot footed it over to Pay Sank, only to find no change in the water level and the group coming out completely oblivious to what had happened just over the rise at GG, wondering what all the fuss was about. That was a classic example of totally unpredictable localised flooding at a similar time of year to the Mossdale tragedy (only a few weeks earlier but with conditions largely similar).
 
Extremely localised flooding isn’t that uncommon in the dales. In 2019 the was a flash flood in Swaledale and Arkengarthdale which caused absolute chaos and flooded my house to 5 foot deep in 10 minutes (terrifying) but 3 miles up dale it was a nice sunny afternoon!
So as others have commented weather remains a bit unpredictable even now!

I agree with @Pitlamp that the fate of those in Mossdale was sealed long before any rescue began, but what may well be different in the future (depending on how much more slash and burn cuts and austerity we have to endure) is the ability of the fire service to assist at a similar incident. High Volume pumps that will shift 22000 litres per minute may well mean that access would be quicker etc. If you’re lucky and it’s a day with enough staff on duty 🙃….

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And these sudden cloud bursts are nigh-on impossible to predict.

From a position of relative inexperience and ignorance - is there an answer to this? Now or in the future?

What specific weather carries the risk?

When in the year/season is the worst risk?

Was Mossdale compounded by either or was it just bad luck?

A tragedy of this scale hasn’t been repeated, but do we actually know any better now? We surely have more weather data but are we better equipped with knowledge as an average caver to make the right call on the day?
 
And these sudden cloud bursts are nigh-on impossible to predict.
That's not entirely true. Weather forecasts are pretty good at showing the kind of convective instabilities that allow thunderstorms to form. It's true that we can't accurately predict _where_ the thunderstorms will form and where they will go, but we can predict that there is a _risk_ of thunderstorms that day. It doesn't really matter if it's pouring down in Selside and dry in Clapham if the forecast was for possible thunderstorms - play it safe.

A grey drizzly day might be safer than a bright sunny summer day if the forecast for the former is just light drizzle and low cloud cover all day, and the latter has an afternoon thunderstorm risk forecast.
 
Due to having a property that floods I've been monitoring rainfall radar for quite a while. Apart from cloudbursts even during times of general rainfall I've noticed that that rainfall can be very localised in character.
Hillside topography obviously contributes to the risk of intense rain in some cave areas.

I have also noticed from radar that the Liverpool Bay wind farms are triggering rainfall in certain conditions.
 
Ireby Fell has had this issue twice:

The "Grim Day Out", in October 2008, documented in Descent, number 205. I was supposed to go on the trip, having been on previous "Grand Days Out" to open the roof tunnel above Whirlpool Chamber, but decided not to go based on the weather forecast. I can remember looking at the Met Office rain radar and watching in horror as a localised, but very heavy circle of rain made its way directly overhead. Sunset and Stream Passage were also affected, resulting in CRO callouts.


Also one in November 2011

 
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