Brexit

[aardgoose]

The description of the 'silent majority' is ahistorical. in that they are

a) rarely silent.
b) not a majority.

The term is used purely to foster a sense of victimhood in a group who's views are often already given greater weight than their number merit and seeks to silence any other opinions, for example the Goebbels inspired term 'The Will of the People' used to invalidate any dissent.

The majority gained in the referendum wasn't a single group.  Multiple groups sometimes with mutually exclusive views were targeted with falsehoods, that had advertising standards applied would have declared illegal. For instance that Turkey would be joining the EU, whilst ignoring the fact the UK had a veto.

A referendum that disenfranchised many of those most effected by the result, should not have stood. For instance, people who had been living outside the UK for more than 15 years.  Two members of my family were disenfranchised by this, but now live in the UK, and the rights of others in my family to live with their partner and children are diminished.

Very few economists see any positive outcome of brexit, and those that do envisage the destruction of UK agriculture and manufacturing industry (as admitted by Patrick Minford in a HoC Select Committee).

The future of this country is bleak, and sadly the most vulnerable in this society will be blamed, rather than those responsible.  Racism has been deemed acceptable, dishonesty and corruption in government is now unchecked, I would like to think those on this forum were against such things, but they are the result of the referendum.

The damage from brexit is much more than leaving the EU. Democracy in the UK is greatly damaged. The power of parliament and the courts to hold the executive in check are being eroded. Ministers are no longer held accountable for their failures and behaviour.  This isn't progress.  It is the path to a failed state.

[Brains]

Summation of the new wonder deal in terms of comparison of membership - but these pages are incomplete?

[langcliffe]

Summation of the new wonder deal in terms of comparison of membership - but these pages are incomplete?

Just to be clear, the "Removal of border checks" row is misleading. The UK and Ireland have always had border controls with the rest of the EU, not having signed the Schengen Agreement. Admittedly, the border checks may become more rigourous.

Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are non-EU countries who are within the Schengen area.

[tony from suffolk]

So now we're all pathetically grateful a deal's been signed & we're not getting the disastrous no-deal option. It's pretty well identical to May's proposal; you know, the one Johnson voted against. Now apparently it's the best thing since sliced bread because he "negotiated" it. There was a much better deal we could have had of course...

So here's a few things that we'll be sacrificing :-

[Fjell]

Purely out of interest, have you ever been on a flight which stopped in Europe before flying east? I regularly commuted to SE Asia and I know of none, and believe me I looked. If you fly to Schipol or Frankfurt, that is hub and spoke, not an onward flight. Who wants to short hop a 777 or (god forbid) a 380 - it's not a commuter bus.

For me the best options usually hub via the ME given I want to fly out of Manchester. Flying to Perth, KL or Singapore the best option was usually Qatar, and certainly the best deal in business class. All other reasonable options like hubbing via HK fly to London. Turkish Airlines is a viable option for many via Istanbul, and has decent planes.

Nothing will change in aviation. The British fly the most of any country in Europe. It's a business people want. If there was any chance of that falling, then maybe that would be good, but I somewhat doubt it will happen.

Finland are offering 90 day work permits, all expenses paid, to try and attract skilled workers. There is a shortage. I worked abroad before freedom of movement in Europe. There was zero issue if you had a job. If you want to live in another country then apply for citizenship if it takes your fancy. Or move to Finland (I have a lot of Finnish jokes if that will help).

[JoshW]

Purely out of interest, have you ever been on a flight which stopped in Europe before flying east? I regularly commuted to SE Asia and I know of none, and believe me I looked. If you fly to Schipol or Frankfurt, that is hub and spoke, not an onward flight. Who wants to short hop a 777 or (god forbid) a 380 - it's not a commuter bus.

Flying to bangkok with Norwegian from gatwick stops in oslo

[Fjell]

Purely out of interest, have you ever been on a flight which stopped in Europe before flying east? I regularly commuted to SE Asia and I know of none, and believe me I looked. If you fly to Schipol or Frankfurt, that is hub and spoke, not an onward flight. Who wants to short hop a 777 or (god forbid) a 380 - it's not a commuter bus.

Flying to bangkok with Norwegian from gatwick stops in oslo

Really? That must the long range 737 I used it to fly to some hick place on the Hudson from Edinburgh with them. I didn't think it would get to Bangkok. Me and Norwegian go back a long way to when they had a couple of turboprops.

Norwegian are bust. It's not really a big surprise. They made Freddy Laker look sober.

[tony from suffolk]

Whoops, my example's hub & spoke...

[Pitlamp]

Aardgoose's articulate comments above (late evening Christmas day) are certainly food for thought. I also share his concerns about the direction in which political style seems to be heading.

But I'm generally a glass half full person and, buoyed by the Queen's speech yesterday, I'm hopeful that things will not be as bad as they might have been, in 2021 and beyond. I agree with you that we've shot ourselves in the foot though.

[ChrisJC]

I look forward to reviewing this thread in 10 years time, and seeing if all the pessimistic doom-mongers are right...

Chris.

[royfellows]

I look forward to reviewing this thread in 10 years time, and seeing if all the pessimistic doom-mongers are right...

Chris.

Its happening. From memory a while back, could be one of the above?

Anyway, a previous thread "when we leave the EU at the end of the year with no deal etc"
or words to that effect.

[pwhole]

I remember reading a quote about John Peel from about 1970, exasperated at the amount of what he considered bad bubblegum music in the pop charts and complaining that one of his favourite groups, probably Principal Edwards Magic Theatre (don't go there), weren't having the massive success he expected.

"I don't understand why they're not making it", he said, probably to John Walters, his producer; "Everyone I know has their album".

Walters said: "No John, it's just that you know everyone who has their album". 

[Mark]

Regardless of me regarding this whole thread as a waste of server space

Agreed

Also my text is bigger than Tony's, so what ever I write next must be fact

[tony from suffolk]

...except it wasn't my text.

[aardgoose]

pessimistic doom-mongers are right

Many of the effects are already in evidence:

A PM who's whole career was built on lying.

A government unaccountable to parliament.

A legal system under attack with underfunding, and moves to make executive action above the law are in progress. (that is the the government manifesto).

There is already much more increased explicit racism and xenophobia.

Dishonesty and corruption at the highest level now goes unchallenged.

For example, contracts to supply PPE were given preferentially to companies with close personal relationships to MPs or were party donors. Many of such companies had no experience in PPE supply of even international trading, given most were obtaining supplies from China. Indeed a fast track channel was setup for such companies.

We have a record number of food banks (true before covid struck). The existence of which one government member found 'uplifting'.

The social support infrastructure in this country is under resourced and failing.

The country is more divided than ever.

The UK's global and regional influence is badly damaged.

The people of NI now have more rights than the residents of Great Britain.

The UK itself  is highly fractured and likely to break up.

Our finance industry is now exposed to steady attrition.

This is already happening. It isn't pessimism. Its observable fact. Calling this 'doom mongering' is insulting.
I can only assume that you are in favour of all of the above. If that is the society you want, and again I can only assume it is, it isn't one I wish to share with you.

In 10 years, if this is reversed I will be relieved (or dead). But any reversal will be in direct opposition to the current direction of the country, a direction you have backed.



 

[ChrisJC]

pessimistic doom-mongers are right

Many of the effects are already in evidence:

[snip]

Our finance industry is now exposed to steady attrition.

I'm not going to argue with all that, however I make two points:
Firstly all your points are not measurable, and are just a matter of your opinion. Of course you are welcome to that, I have a different opinion.
And secondly, our manufacturing industry has been decimated over the last 40 years whilst within the EU, so perhaps our ability to renew it now we are outside might counterbalance the supposed finance industry disaster that is unfolding (is this the same industry that caused the 2008 credit crunch?? - sounds like a real asset!)

I think doom monger is probably the only demonstrably accurate statement in all of this, insulting or not.

Chris.

[RobinGriffiths]

I think that the change from manufacturing to finance and services has been an innate change in the UK, driven by Tory governments since the early 80s. I don't think there has been an inward pressure from the EU for this change. A case in point being Acorn, who spurned manufacturing computers to providing a service designing computer architectures instead, and became a World leader.

Myself, I'd quite like to see the return of nuts and bolts engineering.

[tony from suffolk]

pessimistic doom-mongers are right

Many of the effects are already in evidence:

[snip]

Our finance industry is now exposed to steady attrition.

I'm not going to argue with all that, however I make two points:
Firstly all your points are not measurable, and are just a matter of your opinion. Of course you are welcome to that, I have a different opinion.
And secondly, our manufacturing industry has been decimated over the last 40 years whilst within the EU, so perhaps our ability to renew it now we are outside might counterbalance the supposed finance industry disaster that is unfolding (is this the same industry that caused the 2008 credit crunch?? - sounds like a real asset!)

I think doom monger is probably the only demonstrably accurate statement in all of this, insulting or not.

Chris.

So which facts on aardvark's list are "Only a matter of opinion"?

[tony from suffolk]

This is the final entry in Alan Bennett's diary for the current issue of the LRB (London Review Bookshop):

"15 December.  There were those in 1914 who believed that war was just what was needed - as a cleanser and a salutary shock.  England would be the better for it.  As we wait for the result of the final Brexit talks, the heirs of these fools are still with us".

[StealthYak]

And secondly, our manufacturing industry has been decimated over the last 40 years whilst within the EU, so perhaps our ability to renew it now we are outside

The global economy has changed a lot in the last 40 years, and in the same period we were a member of the EU.   That doesn't make one the cause of the other - unless of course you belive everything must be blamed on someone else.

The concept that we can suddenly switch away from getting 80% of our GDP from services (which are not covered by the deal) back to manufacturing awhile at the same time having to renegotiate trade deals is simply the fantasy of those who can't  face up to the fact that they were played for fools by the leave campaign.

[Pitlamp]

I agree with much of what you say StealthYak - but we are where we are and we can't now reverse the decision. What we can do is make the best of a bad situation, going forwards. No point losing sleep over what cannot be changed. The main thing is to learn from it.

[aardgoose]

Firstly all your points are not measurable, and are just a matter of your opinion.

Rather than engage with evidenced fact you ignore inconvenient truths.

For example:

NI Citizens.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/irish_citizenship/your_right_to_irish_citizenship.html#lee33f

NI citizens can claim Irish citizenship and hence rights of EU citizens and the rights ok UK citizens. This isn't an opinion.


PPE Procurement

https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/investigation-into-government-procurement-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Suppliers introduced by Government contacts 10x more likely to be awarded contracts.


Underfunding legal system under attack.

There is a huge backlog of cases, with trials scheduled long after the alleged events, when witnesses memories will have faded. This backlog predates COVID. The court estate is badly maintained and has been greatly reduced since 2010 with frequent cancellations with leaking building, failed lifts etc.

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/criminal-court-backlog-reaches-two-year-high/5103650.article

The government has stated it's intent in it's 2019 manifesto to restrict the scope of judicial review of government actions and has included 'ouster clauses' in recent legislation that attempt to remove the right to challenge actions.

https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan


Global Influence

In the EU we had numerous veto's and representation at all levels, for instance we could veto a country joining the EU. We have lost that power.  In the EU we were highly influential in setting standards of product regulation, we have lost that. We claim a special relationship with the US, but ignore the large Irish American lobby, and by endangering the 'Good Friday' agreement have reduced our influence in the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/8c533029-5e5e-418b-9d1a-03ef38a4de07


I am not a cheerleader for the finance industry, but the EU is not responsible for the UK's manufacturing decline. Germany has much greater success, and exports more to China among others. Manufacturers with a large EU market are unlikely to want to invest in the UK, 

As one Chinese businessman said  [] after the Brexit vote, “Britain is the door to Europe. Without Europe, it’s just a door.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-to-may-britain-needs-a-better-brexit-plan-1484593397

As for the Tory MP finding food banks "uplifting".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41264965


As for the PM's record and international reputation, just one example as seen from outside the UK and by his ex colleagues.

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/london-diary-was-the-foreign-secretary-a-thug-and-a-liar


I am sure you will now declare all this evidence as "fake news" or ignore it as you have attempted to do.

[tony from suffolk]

Apologies Mr Aardgoose for calling you “aardvark”. I plead senility.

[RobinGriffiths]

Just doing a bit of geological research. If Scotland goes Independent, I presume there will be a grace period, whereby Scotland hosts the subs, for say 10 years or so. Where are they going to go after?  Looking at Portsmouth, it's fairly flabby clay and silt stuff. Ditto Thames Estuary, Kent north coast etc. So I guess the subs would have to go to Devon. Maybe the Teign or Dart?

[RobinGriffiths]

Answering my own question, hosting the subs for XXX years would presumably be a condition for letting the referendum to go ahead.