PeteHall
Moderator
There have been a lot of advice notes issued recently, by various organisations, as to whether or not we may go caving. While the tone varies, the core message across the board seems to be "we aren't going to tell you what to do, you need to think about it yourself". So what do people think?
There have been plenty of reasons made for not going caving, some easier to mitigate than others, so I'm going to put my head above the parapet and make the case for why it is ok to go caving.
Should we go out at all?
The key change to government advice, as far as I'm concerned, is allowing people to travel for exercise. This is specifically to allow those cooped up inside to visit the countryside for exercise, even if they don't live there. Fair enough really; I'd love to live in a National Park, where I could go out walking the fells every day. Unfortunately I don't have that option, so allowing me to occasionally take advantage of our national assets is welcome.
Medically speaking though, nothing has changed since last week. The virus is still carries the same health implications and is just as contagious. There still isn't a cure and there still isn't a vaccine.
So why has the government advice been relaxed?
I think the main thing here is the mental health of the nation. Being stuck inside, not going anywhere and not meeting anyone for months on end is really bad for us. Our species is not supposed to exist like this. Motivation among my colleagues is at an all-time low. Personally, I've got to the point on several days where I've hardly managed to achieve anything more than staring at a blank screen. This is not good for the country and won't help our recovery.
Allowing people to travel for day trips to get their exercise opens up so many more possibilities for where to go or what to do. This is really important, it gives us a sense of more freedom for starters, even if we don't take advantage of it. The knowledge that we could if we wanted to, has certainly improved my motivation.
Unfortunately, that new-found motivation has been undermined by the insistence of some that, despite government advice to improve our mental health, we are somehow being selfish, bad citizens if we take advantage of our limited new freedoms.
Clearly those in authority want us to stay healthy and part of that is mental health. We have a duty to maintain our mental health as much as we have a duty to maintain our physical health. So we should be getting out of the house and getting out of our neighbourhood; maybe not as often as we used to, but enough to remind us what we live for.
But isn't caving too risky?
"Surely caving is much too risky right now" I hear them say. "Is it bollocks" is what I say. Here's why?
As a species, we are not very good at risk assessment; we are very good at assessing consequence, but we often disregard probability and frequency. Risk is a combination of all three, not the consequence alone.
Risk of infection on a trip
There is absolutely no reason why sensible precautions like social distancing or wearing gloves will not mitigate any risk of infection during a trip to lower levels than anywhere else you go. We go out shopping, in supermarkets where thousands of people have been within the survivable life of the virus. The number of people in any cave is so small, that the probability of catching Coronavirus in a cave is as good as zero.
Risk of rescue
This is no greater than usual. However because of the consequences (discussed below), we can reduce the risk significantly, by sticking to caves well within our own ability. We should also take particular care and pay careful attention to the weather, just as we should do on any caving trip normally. By reducing the frequency of caving eg. once a fortnight instead of once a week, we halve the chance of rescue again.
Risk of reduced rescue capability
So there are less people able to attend a call out and they may be impeded by extra PPE, so a rescue would be more protracted. However, if under normal circumstances, we would be quite happy to undertake a challenging trip several hours into a constricted cave system, we have already risk assessed a protracted rescue (or at least we should have done), and we are ok with this. So by reducing the complexity of our trip, we mitigate the additional challenges of a rescue in current circumstances, compared to our base position. Combine this with the fact that the chance of a rescue can be reduced (as discussed above) and the risk from a protracted rescue is reduced far, far below the normal level, that we are all quite happy to accept.
Risk of infection during rescue
It is true that if there was a protracted underground rescue, and one person (casualty or rescuer) was carrying Coronavirus, it could be spread. However by reducing the chance of a rescue (as discussed above), this risk is so small it's barely worth considering.
"But you could be putting others at risk" I hear you say.
Maybe I'm a selfish twat, but I reckon I put innocent people at risk every day (normally). Every time we get in our car, we put other road users at risk, this is massively increased if we are distracted (eg. using a phone, even hands free or dealing with fighting children), are tired (after a long caving trip, or just a late finish at work), or have had even one drink (look at the car park at any pub in a caving area , don't tell me everyone is on water!).
So we're all selfish twats most of the time and we all put others at much more risk than we would put rescuers at by going caving. Lay off the double standards, I'm no worse than you!
Risk of burdening a stretched NHS
Since the NHS has cancelled all routine operations, there is probably no better time to go to A&E (not that I'd advise it for leisure). That said, based on all the above, the chance of needing it are so slim compared to anything else we do (such as cycling!) and there are so few cavers compared to all the cyclists, that the potential impact on the NHS is approximately zero.
Public perception
Sure, the farmer at Braida Garth may be a bit upset if the whole of Kingsdale is rammed with cavers cars and the owner of Rose Cottage Cave won't want you traipsing through the garden to go caving, but this just takes a little common sense to manage. Compared to the number of walkers and cyclists out, cavers are going to be a drop in the ocean. My advice would be to avoid honey pot sites and probably to go in the evening when there are far fewer people about. The chances are, the only reason anyone will know you are caving is because a car will be parked at the side of the road near a cave, or the odd cyclist might see you getting changed before your trip.
If we are sensible, there is no need to upset anyone.
Conclusion:
- Our mental health needs looking after. If that means getting out to the countryside and going caving, that is good for us and therefore good for the nation's health.
- The risk of coronavirus infection while caving is much smaller than the risk of infection during our daily lives.
- The risks associated with rescue can be mitigated far below our usually acceptable risk levels.
- The risk we put others at is far lower than the risks we routinely put others at.
- The risk of burdening the NHS is non-existant.
- By using a little common sense there is no reason to upset public perception.
I rest my case and await the onslaught of condemnation for daring to suggest that it is ok to cave, subject to the simple caveats advised by various caving bodies :kiss2:
There have been plenty of reasons made for not going caving, some easier to mitigate than others, so I'm going to put my head above the parapet and make the case for why it is ok to go caving.
Should we go out at all?
The key change to government advice, as far as I'm concerned, is allowing people to travel for exercise. This is specifically to allow those cooped up inside to visit the countryside for exercise, even if they don't live there. Fair enough really; I'd love to live in a National Park, where I could go out walking the fells every day. Unfortunately I don't have that option, so allowing me to occasionally take advantage of our national assets is welcome.
Medically speaking though, nothing has changed since last week. The virus is still carries the same health implications and is just as contagious. There still isn't a cure and there still isn't a vaccine.
So why has the government advice been relaxed?
I think the main thing here is the mental health of the nation. Being stuck inside, not going anywhere and not meeting anyone for months on end is really bad for us. Our species is not supposed to exist like this. Motivation among my colleagues is at an all-time low. Personally, I've got to the point on several days where I've hardly managed to achieve anything more than staring at a blank screen. This is not good for the country and won't help our recovery.
Allowing people to travel for day trips to get their exercise opens up so many more possibilities for where to go or what to do. This is really important, it gives us a sense of more freedom for starters, even if we don't take advantage of it. The knowledge that we could if we wanted to, has certainly improved my motivation.
Unfortunately, that new-found motivation has been undermined by the insistence of some that, despite government advice to improve our mental health, we are somehow being selfish, bad citizens if we take advantage of our limited new freedoms.
Clearly those in authority want us to stay healthy and part of that is mental health. We have a duty to maintain our mental health as much as we have a duty to maintain our physical health. So we should be getting out of the house and getting out of our neighbourhood; maybe not as often as we used to, but enough to remind us what we live for.
But isn't caving too risky?
"Surely caving is much too risky right now" I hear them say. "Is it bollocks" is what I say. Here's why?
As a species, we are not very good at risk assessment; we are very good at assessing consequence, but we often disregard probability and frequency. Risk is a combination of all three, not the consequence alone.
Risk of infection on a trip
There is absolutely no reason why sensible precautions like social distancing or wearing gloves will not mitigate any risk of infection during a trip to lower levels than anywhere else you go. We go out shopping, in supermarkets where thousands of people have been within the survivable life of the virus. The number of people in any cave is so small, that the probability of catching Coronavirus in a cave is as good as zero.
Risk of rescue
This is no greater than usual. However because of the consequences (discussed below), we can reduce the risk significantly, by sticking to caves well within our own ability. We should also take particular care and pay careful attention to the weather, just as we should do on any caving trip normally. By reducing the frequency of caving eg. once a fortnight instead of once a week, we halve the chance of rescue again.
Risk of reduced rescue capability
So there are less people able to attend a call out and they may be impeded by extra PPE, so a rescue would be more protracted. However, if under normal circumstances, we would be quite happy to undertake a challenging trip several hours into a constricted cave system, we have already risk assessed a protracted rescue (or at least we should have done), and we are ok with this. So by reducing the complexity of our trip, we mitigate the additional challenges of a rescue in current circumstances, compared to our base position. Combine this with the fact that the chance of a rescue can be reduced (as discussed above) and the risk from a protracted rescue is reduced far, far below the normal level, that we are all quite happy to accept.
Risk of infection during rescue
It is true that if there was a protracted underground rescue, and one person (casualty or rescuer) was carrying Coronavirus, it could be spread. However by reducing the chance of a rescue (as discussed above), this risk is so small it's barely worth considering.
"But you could be putting others at risk" I hear you say.
Maybe I'm a selfish twat, but I reckon I put innocent people at risk every day (normally). Every time we get in our car, we put other road users at risk, this is massively increased if we are distracted (eg. using a phone, even hands free or dealing with fighting children), are tired (after a long caving trip, or just a late finish at work), or have had even one drink (look at the car park at any pub in a caving area , don't tell me everyone is on water!).
So we're all selfish twats most of the time and we all put others at much more risk than we would put rescuers at by going caving. Lay off the double standards, I'm no worse than you!
Risk of burdening a stretched NHS
Since the NHS has cancelled all routine operations, there is probably no better time to go to A&E (not that I'd advise it for leisure). That said, based on all the above, the chance of needing it are so slim compared to anything else we do (such as cycling!) and there are so few cavers compared to all the cyclists, that the potential impact on the NHS is approximately zero.
Public perception
Sure, the farmer at Braida Garth may be a bit upset if the whole of Kingsdale is rammed with cavers cars and the owner of Rose Cottage Cave won't want you traipsing through the garden to go caving, but this just takes a little common sense to manage. Compared to the number of walkers and cyclists out, cavers are going to be a drop in the ocean. My advice would be to avoid honey pot sites and probably to go in the evening when there are far fewer people about. The chances are, the only reason anyone will know you are caving is because a car will be parked at the side of the road near a cave, or the odd cyclist might see you getting changed before your trip.
If we are sensible, there is no need to upset anyone.
Conclusion:
- Our mental health needs looking after. If that means getting out to the countryside and going caving, that is good for us and therefore good for the nation's health.
- The risk of coronavirus infection while caving is much smaller than the risk of infection during our daily lives.
- The risks associated with rescue can be mitigated far below our usually acceptable risk levels.
- The risk we put others at is far lower than the risks we routinely put others at.
- The risk of burdening the NHS is non-existant.
- By using a little common sense there is no reason to upset public perception.
I rest my case and await the onslaught of condemnation for daring to suggest that it is ok to cave, subject to the simple caveats advised by various caving bodies :kiss2: