EU exit options

[Simon Wilson]

I think Alex is saying that 44% of UK exports are within the EU and suggesting that in a hypothetical worst case scenario they would all be lost.

Thanks Simon,

What we need as a country is to steer clear of speculation (regarding everything) and act based on fact. We might not have gone into Iraq if we had acted on the facts - but that's a whole different debate.

Hughie is right, if someone wants something that we're selling, then they will buy it.

You are vastly downplaying a complex issue. Huge tranches of manufacturing are likely to relocate from the UK to the EU. For example it would be silly for Toyota and Nissan to continue to use assembly plants in the UK. They won't move immediately but new models could be made at their other existing plants in France, Portugal and Spain.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/siemens-freezes-new-uk-wind-power-investment-following-brexit-vote

 

[Madness]

You are vastly downplaying a complex issue. Huge tranches of manufacturing are likely to relocate from the UK to the EU. For example it would be silly for Toyota and Nissan to continue to use assembly plants in the UK. They won't move immediately but new models could be made at their other existing plants in France, Portugal and Spain.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/siemens-freezes-new-uk-wind-power-investment-following-brexit-vote

I highlighted a couple of words that I hope highlight the point that I'm trying (unsucessfully) to get across. This point being that nothing is 100% certain to happen. I wish everybody (on both sides of the argument) would stop talking about things as being certainies - there aren't any.

 

[droid]

Bang on the money, Madness.

 

[royfellows]

I am with this argument as well.

One of the things that worries me is that the rest of Europe will be watching us now to see how we fare. Obviously the EU doesn't want any more exits, so there are vested interests out there that want to see the UK go down.

 

[Simon Wilson]

I wish everybody (on both sides of the argument) would stop talking about things as being certainies - there aren't any.

I have to challenge that statement. The leave side talked in terms of certainty very often and stuck to many of their claims even when they were very strongly refuted by the remain camp. The most obvious example is the figure of ?350 Million.

One the other hand the slogan which was most often and most widely used by the remain camp was that brexit would be "a leap in the dark" - in other words a leap into uncertainty. Uncertainty was their main concern.

 

[Rhys]

One of the things that worries me is that the rest of Europe will be watching us now to see how we fare. Obviously the EU doesn't want any more exits, so there are vested interests out there that want to see the UK go down.

Brexiteers keep saying that the Europeans want to and will continue to sell us cars. If they deliberately crash our ecomy and trash our currency they won't be able to sell us many. So which is it?

 

[bograt]

I do wish people would believe the evidence of their own eyes,-- a quick check on the 'country of origin' label in any grocery section of any supermarket will give you a clue;

Produce from Peru, Guatemala, Egypt, New Zealand, Morocco, - etc.etc.--- these nations are all exporting to us, and therefore to the EU, please don't try to tell me that they all adhere to the rules of 'freedom of movement' for all 'Europeans'.

We first joined the 'Common Market' an agreement to trade between European countries, that's what we where happy with, this then became the 'European Community' --, not too bad---, then the 'European Economic Community'---, erm, are they targeting our economic system?, -- then they called it the 'European Union' and started laying down rules as to what we could and couldn't do.

This is the main objection to 'membership'.

Lets face it, through most of the history of our illustrious nation we have had wars with most of Europe (and usually won!), now they are trying out a way of persuading us to defeat ourselves through money, not guns or longbows, there is still a 'Common-Wealth' we can trade with, although they may be a bit miffed about us preferring  Europe.--

 

[pwhole]

Who's 'they' that you keep referring to? I think it's 'we'. It is a union after all - our elected governments all agreed to operate by the same rules, not that 'they' imposed 'their' rules on us. I'm not especially keen on having wars with anyone at the moment, especially Europeans. Arguing that we 'usually won' is hardly justification, and impossible to quantify anyway. Let's not forget the Yugoslavian war was pretty much based on sentimental journeys about battles from the 14th century, and none of that made any sense to a rational observer - still doesn't.

 

[royfellows]

One of the things that worries me is that the rest of Europe will be watching us now to see how we fare. Obviously the EU doesn't want any more exits, so there are vested interests out there that want to see the UK go down.

Brexiteers keep saying that the Europeans want to and will continue to sell us cars. If they deliberately crash our ecomy and trash our currency they won't be able to sell us many. So which is it?

I never said that, but a good point anyway. However their UK sales will probably go down anyway due to the weakening of the pound making for dearer cars.
It s funny old thing, a weak pound helps our exports and exporting UK businesses are seeing and increase in trade, unfortunately we have to pay more for our imports, and we import more than we export which is why we have a trade deficit.

 

[alastairgott]

Produce from Peru, Guatemala, Egypt, New Zealand, Morocco, - etc.etc.--- these nations are all exporting to us, and therefore to the EU, please don't try to tell me that they all adhere to the rules of 'freedom of movement' for all 'Europeans'.

We ...joined the ...'European Union'...

This is the main objection to 'membership'.

I've not read it yet, but there is a good page on Wikipedia on the "treaty of the functioning of the European Union" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Functioning_of_the_European_Union

I will read it and try to sound informed later.

but i'd just like to say, yes we can trade with South America, Africa and Australasia without entering into an agreement on free trade. As we have done in the recent past when we've been a member of the EU. The EU can also afford the same things, but may have better buying power due to the amount of land mass and people within it.

We will also still be able to trade with them after.

What we now may like to do is trade with the EU and to avoid things like Import and Export Taxes, which we currently are able to pay no import and export taxes in the EU, although this will change gov.uk/duty-relief-for-imports-and-exports

And Also avoid things like European Sales Tax VAT on the movement of goods and services within the EU https://www.gov.uk/guidance/trading-in-the-eu

VAT on the movement of goods and services within the EU

There is less admin involved in acquisitions (goods imported into the UK) and dispatches (goods exported from the UK) to and from other EU countries than with countries in the rest of the world.

For VAT purposes, you should record goods sold to and bought from other EU countries on your usual VAT return. The total value of your sales of goods to other EU countries should be recorded in box 8 of your VAT return, while the total value of your EU purchases of goods should be recorded in box 9.

Find out about submitting your VAT returns electronically.

If either your EU acquisitions or dispatches of goods are above a certain threshold you?ll have to complete an additional form, the Intrastat Supplementary Declaration. Intrastat thresholds are reviewed annually. The thresholds are ?1.5 million for Arrivals and ?250,000 for Dispatches. See Intrastat: an overview.

what we may wish to do is enter into an agreement with the European countries to negate the need to pay Import, Export and Sales Taxes when trading with Europe. Whether this deal actually happens is up for debate and the conditions that will be set before us (if we start negotiations) are up for negotiation. The deal will likely be more sophisticated than the simplistic and biased vote at the top of this page.

 

[alastairgott]

Wonders if (funnily) the functioning of the Eu will still be in force in the "British Antarctic Territory" if we leave the EU.

ANNEX II (of the Treaty of the functioning of the EU)
OVERSEAS COUNTRIES AND TERRITORIES TO WHICH THE PROVISIONS OF PART FOUR OF THE TREATY ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE EUROPEAN UNION APPLY
? Greenland,
? New Caledonia and Dependencies,
? French Polynesia,
? French Southern and Antarctic Territories,
? Wallis and Futuna Islands,
? Mayotte,
? Saint Pierre and Miquelon,
? Aruba,
? Netherlands Antilles:
? Bonaire,
? Cura?ao,
? Saba,
? Sint Eustatius,
? Sint Maarten,
? Anguilla,
? Cayman Islands,
? Falkland Islands,
? South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands,
? Montserrat,
? Pitcairn,
? Saint Helena and Dependencies,
? British Antarctic Territory,
? British Indian Ocean Territory,
? Turks and Caicos Islands,
? British Virgin Islands,
? Bermuda.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:12012E/TXT&from=EN

 

[ChrisJC]

I do wish people would believe the evidence of their own eyes,-- a quick check on the 'country of origin' label in any grocery section of any supermarket will give you a clue;

Produce from Peru, Guatemala, Egypt, New Zealand, Morocco, - etc.etc.--- these nations are all exporting to us, and therefore to the EU, please don't try to tell me that they all adhere to the rules of 'freedom of movement' for all 'Europeans'.

We first joined the 'Common Market' an agreement to trade between European countries, that's what we where happy with, this then became the 'European Community' --, not too bad---, then the 'European Economic Community'---, erm, are they targeting our economic system?, -- then they called it the 'European Union' and started laying down rules as to what we could and couldn't do.

This is the main objection to 'membership'.

Well said.

Chris.

 

[andrewmcleod]

One of the things that worries me is that the rest of Europe will be watching us now to see how we fare. Obviously the EU doesn't want any more exits, so there are vested interests out there that want to see the UK go down.

Brexiteers keep saying that the Europeans want to and will continue to sell us cars. If they deliberately crash our ecomy and trash our currency they won't be able to sell us many. So which is it?

http://satwcomic.com/it-s-nothing

Whatever happens to us, it will be a lot less bad for each individual European country. 44% (or whatever the figure is) of our trade is with the EU; the fraction of each EU country's trade with us will be much smaller. Life will go on for the EU with or without us.

 

[Alex]

One thing I only just realised is that if option one happens, a loss of freedom of movement it could spell the end of the Matienzo caving project as we know it. Why is that, well its run by brits who live in Spain half the year who mainly run it will no longer be able to do that with loss of Freedom of movement, it could mean the end of the all year expo and perhaps the expedition itself.

 

[RobinGriffiths]

Hi Alex, I think Theresa might be holding their EU counterparts over here hostage (or reverse hostages), so you never know.

It might well knacker forthcoming retirees wishing to move to a big f**k off rural pied a terre in rural France at the same price as a two up, two down over here though.

 

[Cave_Troll]

yes i can trade with the US and buy things from there, but the last time i did i got stung for import duty....

 

[Laurie]

We had Brits and their pensions retiring to warmer climes long before the EEC. Why would these people be unwelcome when they're adding to the host country's income?
Also foreigners coming to Britain on work permits. They'll still be able to come if needed but Britain will have control.

 

[andrewmcleod]

We had Brits and their pensions retiring to warmer climes long before the EEC. Why would these people be unwelcome when they're adding to the host country's income?

They will lose all their free healthcare though...

 

[Amy]

Can't resist...have to post...

 

[Madness]

Can't resist...have to post...

Make the most of taking the piss out of us Brits. We'll get our own back once Trump is elected President!