Peter Burgess
New member
It's a bit like global warming (are you listening, Whitelackington?) One year's figures prove nothing either way, especially with numbers so low compared with, say, road deaths.
Looks like rain....
- Thread starter danthecavingman
- Start date
When there is heavy rain (forecast or otherwise) on a busy weekend there can end up being multiple callouts, so year-on-year figures can end up rather 'lumpy'.
At least the way the rain came, it did gradually ramp up from mid-morning, rather than starting with a sudden big dump, which I suppose is something we can be grateful for.
IIRC, Sunset had a fatality many years ago from someone on a beginner's caving trip when a freak local storm dumped a load of water on the catchment, and the resulting flood swept them down the passage and down the pitch.
At least the way the rain came, it did gradually ramp up from mid-morning, rather than starting with a sudden big dump, which I suppose is something we can be grateful for.
IIRC, Sunset had a fatality many years ago from someone on a beginner's caving trip when a freak local storm dumped a load of water on the catchment, and the resulting flood swept them down the passage and down the pitch.
SimonMLatimer
New member
Well done all those cavers who wouldn't and didn't venture underground this weekend, because they always check the weather forcast, from all the available sources, every weekend, and use their sound judgment to predict what will happen next in the dangerous caves of Yorkshire!
Peter Burgess
New member
Can someone please explain to everyone the psychology behind this curious phenomenon. That when someone says they thought it would be too risky to go caving because of forecast rain, others try to make them feel guilty for daring to mention it. And, similarly, when someone dares to suggest that being kept up for hours by noisy campers isn't nice they too should feel guilty for daring to mention it. Beats me, I'm afraid.
hell little caver
New member
only 2 people were on the wrong side of the sump in Ireby.
J
Juniper
Guest
What *is* it about this thread that seems to bring out dumb hyperbole in some people?SimonMLatimer said:
No-one seems to have laid into anyone for going underground. People have been curious about what forecasts were available, and maybe about what forecasts were looked at by the people who did go underground.
Since you're obviously a self-appointed expert on reasonableness, what *are* we allowed to say about the weekend that doesn't leave us open to accusations of superiority?
Or would you rather that no-one said or learned anything?
Peter Burgess
New member
Now we have a third example of this curious phenomenon. I am supposed to feel guilty of trying to be reasonable. Very odd.Juniper said:
E
eatmecowpat
Guest
Smithers said:
Smithers my dear, you are not allowed to use this anymore! Its quota of usage was satisfied at the pub... when I think I may have actually been drinking one of those pints :-\
Peter Burgess
New member
mak said:
Hey, it was late in the evening and my head was spinning from three hours of going through JRat's log books! No one should be expected to be thinking straight after that. Must be all the PUs he refers to.
Well, if it's what you want I will make an effort to give some of my observations be they right or wrong (I'm sure some people will tell me I obviously didn't pay proper attention to the weather forecasts, call me foolish etc but I couldn't give a toss) I was part of a group of 6 that went caving, got fairly wet on the way out, but didn't need rescuing.
The previous Sunday I enjoyed a dry trip down Grange Rigg, the week leading up to that trip had been dry with no rain (if memory serves me right.) The forecast for the week leading up to the 5th looked unsettled, with possibly Tuesday? being the wettest day, a little bit more rain followed Wed/Thu with Friday being dry. The forecast for Saturday was one of some heavy rain afternoon ish, but with no weather warnings given.
We had a permit for Lost Johns - Boxhead, given the forecast we still decided to go ahead as planned. Had the permit been for say Short Drop-Gavel, we would have changed our plans. Another group must have decided LJ was a reasonable choice too as they were in the cave when we arrived, although (based on some minor observations) I don't think they were aware of quite how much rain was going to arrive.
On the drive up the levels in the rivers appeared normal/average, arriving on Leck and examining the LJ stream it too appeared normal/average. There was little/no rain during the morning and when we entered at 11am the downpour hadn't started. By 2-3pm the water levels had risen by a fairly reasonable amount. I was exiting Boxhead and it was a rather damp affair to say the least in the main shaft, and the entrance tube had water flowing down it (or out of the footholes and down). The other half of our team exited just a bit after 3 and enough rain had fallen to swell the Lost Johns stream to knee deep.
The rain was very heavy, and it was bloody miserable on Leck Fell! All part of the fun though
The drive home was slow due to various large puddles and water spilling out from all over the place and on to the roads. When I got home I checked the met-office forecast again, this time weather warnings had appeared, obviously they had underestimated the intensity of the system (they usually get warnings up in good time).Perhaps as someone suggested above the ground was already fairly wet and this coupled with very heavy and prolonged rain led to a rapid increase in stream levels...
Peter Burgess
New member
dunc said:
I suppose if there is a lesson, it is to understand that the longer ahead a forecast is for, the less reliable it is. I suppose the best time to start thinking seriously about how the weather might affect a trip is about 48 hours in advance, and to check at least once more as close as possible to the actual trip starting.
I'm not sure how much weather warnings (or the lack of them) mean when it comes to caving.
I've a distinct feeling the forecast I saw on Friday evening didn't have an associated weather warning, even though its rainfall timing/intensity forecast was correct.
Either that, or people were talking on Friday night/Saturday morning about other similar forecasts that did have warnings for other areas, but not Northern England/Yorkshire, since I remember people commenting on that, and joking about how it was the kind of weather forecast that would result in weather warnings in some places further south.
I guess that rainfall-dependent weather warnings are more aimed at [lowland houses] flooding, and most attention might be paid to rainfall totals over longer timescales than are most useful for cave flooding calculations, given how quickly upland caves respond to rainfall, and how quickly they return to 'heavy-normal' flow when rain and immediate surface runoff ceases or reduces.
I've a distinct feeling the forecast I saw on Friday evening didn't have an associated weather warning, even though its rainfall timing/intensity forecast was correct.
Either that, or people were talking on Friday night/Saturday morning about other similar forecasts that did have warnings for other areas, but not Northern England/Yorkshire, since I remember people commenting on that, and joking about how it was the kind of weather forecast that would result in weather warnings in some places further south.
I guess that rainfall-dependent weather warnings are more aimed at [lowland houses] flooding, and most attention might be paid to rainfall totals over longer timescales than are most useful for cave flooding calculations, given how quickly upland caves respond to rainfall, and how quickly they return to 'heavy-normal' flow when rain and immediate surface runoff ceases or reduces.
graham
New member
Over in Ireland, Adrian Thomas has been collecting data for some years on water flows in Poulnagollum-Poulelva as compared with rainfall data. IIRC his ideal was to have the flow meters accessible online so that anyone in Limerick, say, ('cos that's where he lives) could assess the state of the streamway without having to leave home.
D'you think CNCC could get a big enough grant to equip the major northern caves with a similar system? :-\
D'you think CNCC could get a big enough grant to equip the major northern caves with a similar system? :-\
Glenn
Member
cap n chris
Well-known member
According to the listings in the link Glenn provided, there appears to have been little or no rainfall in the Dales on Saturday 4th. Masses on Sunday, though. I'm guessin' that the rainfall data are collected and published on the day after the samples are collected, therefore meaning that the Sunday rainfall figure relates to the rainfall which occurred on the previous day, rather than on the day it is posted.
Otherwise it doesn't make sense to me.
Otherwise it doesn't make sense to me.