Looks like rain....

[Peter Burgess]

I'm not sure how much weather warnings (or the lack of them) mean when it comes to caving.

I've a distinct feeling the forecast I saw on Friday evening didn't have an associated weather warning, even though its rainfall timing/intensity forecast was correct.
Either that, or people were talking on Friday night/Saturday morning about other similar forecasts that did have warnings for other areas, but not Northern England/Yorkshire, since I remember people commenting on that, and joking about how it was the kind of weather forecast that would result in weather warnings in some places further south.

I guess that rainfall-dependent weather warnings are more aimed at [lowland houses] flooding, and most attention might be paid to rainfall totals over longer timescales than are most useful for cave flooding calculations, given how quickly upland caves respond to rainfall, and how quickly they return to 'heavy-normal' flow when rain and immediate surface runoff ceases or reduces.

I think lack of weather warnings might lure people into a false sense of security. Maybe the Met Office should have thought about that when they introduced them as a means to protect their reputation. We get 'severe' weather warnings when the temp drops just down to freezing and a bit of wet snow falls, for goodness sake! Either you end up with a 'crying wolf' situation when they end up being ignored, or an over-reliance on them instead of expecting intelligent people to make their own judgment.

 

[graham]

... expecting intelligent people to make their own judgement.

What about cavers though? 

 

[Pitlamp]

Just to confirm - I'm one of the people who upload Dales rainfall data to the CDG website; my rain gauge is typically read at around 06-00 each morning, so Sunday's figure was for the 24 hours from 06-00 Saturday morning to 06-00 Sunday morning. Most other contributors also upload in the norning but not necessarily as early as me. We reckon that a morning 24 hour rainfall figure is probably more helpful than an evening one.

I always try to make sure this is done on time each morning because, although it was really intended for the use of cave divers, I'm told that a lot of cavers who don't dive find it of interest too.

 

[dunc]

I always try to make sure this is done on time each morning because, although it was really intended for the use of cave divers, I'm told that a lot of cavers who don't dive find it of interest too.

Yep, I'm not a diver but find it useful 

 

[potholer]

I think lack of weather warnings might lure people into a false sense of security. Maybe the Met Office should have thought about that when they introduced them as a means to protect their reputation.

But the weather warnings aren't for cavers, or for outdoor activities in general.

All kinds of weather that could be unpleasant or dangerous for people doing various things in the hills would be of little or no consequence to most regular people.

Weather warnings are really focussed on risks to buildings and transport.

 

[Peter Burgess]

And risks to weather forecasters, or am I a tad too cynical?

 

[dunc]

Weather warnings are really focussed on risks to buildings and transport.

True. But a warning for risks to such could well mean that it may be worse in t'hills, as we all know weather can sometimes be worse on higher ground..

I merely mentioned the weather warnings to provide an idea of what I saw looking at the forecast - I don't use warnings to make any judgement about caving trips, I read the report, look at rainfall radar predictions (or whatever they're called) to have a better understanding of the impending weather.

And risks to weather forecasters, or am I a tad too cynical?

 

[damian]

I always try to make sure this is done on time each morning because, although it was really intended for the use of cave divers, I'm told that a lot of cavers who don't dive find it of interest too.

Yep ... one of the most useful tools available to me and something for which I am very, very grateful.

I know I speak for a lot of Dales cavers when I say many thanks, Pitlamp.

 

[IanWalker]

I always try to make sure this is done on time each morning because, although it was really intended for the use of cave divers, I'm told that a lot of cavers who don't dive find it of interest too.

Yep ... one of the most useful tools available to me and something for which I am very, very grateful.

I know I speak for a lot of Dales cavers when I say many thanks, Pitlamp.

Hear hear.

 

[kay]

But the weather warnings aren't for cavers, or for outdoor activities in general.

All kinds of weather that could be unpleasant or dangerous for people doing various things in the hills would be of little or no consequence to most regular people.

Weather warnings are really focussed on risks to buildings and transport.

Sometime about a year ago, if I recall correctly, the met office announced a change in policy whereby it was focussing its weather forecasts more towards the centres of population, ie giving more detail for the cities and a bit less effort in to weather in the unpopulated areas of the UK.

 

[graham]

Yeah, but I hear that Ireby Fell was really heavily populated last weekend.

 

[Hammy]

Another big-up from me Pitlamp!

Thank you for creeping round your bedroom with a dipstick at 6am every morning..... it's above and beyond the call of duty for most of us!

I always use the information you (and others) provide together with a range of forecasts (BBC, Met Office, MWIS,  Metcheck) plus the rainfall radar plus the synoptic charts whenever I plan a caving trip and so far it has stood me in good stead......

320+ trips with no epics in the last couple of years in the Dales and its got to be good!!

 

[barrabus]

A work colleague of mine was down Ireby on saturday and was rescued by......another work colleague!

It seems I was wrong about the facts - he didn't need rescuing at all - he was merely on an extended digging trip and inconvenienced by slightly higher than normal water levels.

Next time I will get all the facts before posting. :-[

 

[footleg]

I've always strongly believed that while getting caught out by flooding in caves is not something to be taken lightly, it is a valuable learning experience and if no-one comes to any harm then the experience is well worth it for the lessons learned.

This was reinforced last weekend when cavers who were inconvenienced by the weather in Sunset Hole recently made the correct decision to postpone a 'try out caving' event last weekend for which they had 67 potential new cavers signed up for. Given the reports on the news from the Mountain Marathon event in Cumbria, it looks like a much more serious caving incident was prevented because of the lessons learned on the previous trip where only 4 novices had a more exciting first caving experience than was intended. It is not an easy decision to cancel a large scale event which a lot of effort has gone into organising and it feels like a lot of people are being let down. But absolutely the right decision was made, and the event will be reorganised for all those potential future cavers in a few weeks time (subject to improvements in the weather!).

 

[Juniper]

It's certainly good when people learn from experience, just as it's good when they learn from the experiences of others.
Hopefully some people reading this thread might have picked up some information that will be useful even if they were nowhere near a cave at the time.