El Niño and La Niña: Do They Affect Caving?

[Space Doubt Caver]

On my journey through life I deep dive in thought about the geological wonders of our planet, which I am sure most of you here do too.

It brings me to my question, as titled "El Niño and La Niña: Do They Affect Caving?"

Has anyone ever studied or found a correlation to weather patterns while caving when these geological events where happening, and do they have an affect on caving E.G. More flooding.

These events typically occur every 2 to 7 years and can last from 9 to 12 months, & has significant impacts on global weather patterns.

More recently many of us have seen caves flooding the past year some caves that haven flooded in decades like Poachers Cave last year, as this drains into the Milwr tunnel but it was flood to the roof for some months, as i had observed this myself, and this makes me wonder is there any correlation between these great geological events and flooding in caves?

Thank you
[Edit] - Oceanographical / Meteorological phenomenon

 

[Pitlamp]

That's a really interesting question; I'll await responses from folk with more knowledge than me, with eagerness.
I'd say it was an oceanographical / meteorological phenomenon though, rather than geological? But such words ar far too big for new year's day!

 

[PeteHall]

Agree with @Pitlamp, this is a very interesting question and look forward to hearing if anyone here has the expertise to shine any more light on it.

There seems little doubt that the recent El Nino has contributed to the warmer/milder weather during 2024, which has doubtless had an impact on rainfall. Increased rainfall would doubtless have sn impact on caves and caving, so looking at the connection is logical.

Based on my extremely limited understanding, it seems unwise to attribute any specific weather event to any specific long-term cycle, however looking at patterns in data may well show a statistically significant trend (or it may not).

Apparently we're in store for a colder period in near-future years, so looking at historic patterns may give some useful (or at least interesting) insight.

 

[Pitlamp]

Yeah - and we may get some vis at last!

 

[PeteHall]

Yeah - and we may get some vis at last!

I've got vis all year

I just need to find some more cave to go with it...

 

[Space Doubt Caver]

This might be a good place to start for anyone who understands this kind of data: https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

it records El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities.

 

[saradactyll]

A few months late but this is a fun topic. I'll make the same assumption more (or heavier) rain = more cave floods. I'm sure there's lots of hydrology/ non-linear system specific responses involved but I don't know anything about that so I'll stick with my clouds

The UK has seen more extreme rainfall recently. As far as I know, there’s no strong direct link between ENSO phase and UK rainfall. The NAO has more impact on UK weather patterns — a positive phase is associated with wetter, milder winters in the UK. The positive phase seems to have been common recently. ENSO may influence the NAO? I had a quick look at some data but there’s not a simple correlation. Maybe there’s some indirect, messy mechanism lurking there with the 50 other factors— might come back to it with some stats/ do a deeper dive when I feel like procrastinating some more.

Also climate change. For every degree of warming, the atmosphere can 'hold' ~7% more atmospheric moisture, so more potential for heavy rain. And the past decade has been the warmest on record for the UK.

 

[mikem]

Climate models do predict that weather events will become more extreme, so heavier rainfall or more drought - sort of what we are seeing. Expect that will outweigh any effects of nino / nina, however:

El Niño pattern can bring wet weather to UK one year later

El Niño and La Niña cycles driven by ocean temperatures in the Pacific can influence weather in the North Atlantic 12 months later – a finding that could improve long-range forecasts

www.newscientist.com

 

[alanw]

Free access Met Office post: Echoes of El Niño and La Niña affect the Atlantic a year later