Giants Fatality

[cap n chris]

Lucky rabbit's foot?; seaweed?; Cows lying down in fields? 

Andy's right; nowadays everyone with t'interweb has access to real-time satellite doppler imagery of approaching rain/weather fronts. It's hardly rocket science to accurately forecast prevailing weather with such amazing tools to hand.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=bnw,a=1,sa=9,f=1,n=0,d=1,v=400,pp=0,t=undefined#controls

 

[Graigwen]

...
Oh, and dowsing

I guess you are with WSG then...

 

[Pitlamp]

I disagree with two assertions made by Andy Sparrow. My opinions, based on a lifetime of caving, are:

1. Weather forecasts are definitely not to be relied on; experience and local knowledge are of significant value.

2. There is no substitute for a good wetsuit for avoidance of hypothermia on very wet caving trips; under/oversuit combinations are not as effective in these circumstances.

I also believe that speculation as to what happened to cause an accident is worse than useless. Mark has hit the nail on the head by asking the question about what mechanisms we have / should have in order to try to give the wider caving public information about what has been learned as soon as the facts are reliably understood. To me this is perhaps the only thing of value which can be discussed - well said Mark.

 

[graham]

John

You were certainly not speculating, but made an important contribution that might not have been made (or appreciated) except in this context. That is a large part of my argument.

 

[theFerret]

In reply to Pitlamps remark of: 1. Weather forecasts are definitely not to be relied on; experience and local knowledge are of significant value.

Im just making this clear as you may have meant this anyway but weather forecasts are extremely useful and can be relied upon as long as you look at a few different sources of forecast to build your picture, also understanding the charts helps to build a clear picture, this information backed by Vis-Bot water levels and local knowledge, guidebook information, asking locals or shop owners (ingleton, H&H Derbyshire etc) - all this builds a much clearer picture on what caves are going to be safest to do. Weather forecasts are important.

 

[cap n chris]

Where do you tap into "local knowledge"?

Surely local knowledge is less reliable than a doppler radar image combined with ground saturation info?

 

[JB]

Where do you tap into "local knowledge"?

Anyone can get hold of a decent weather forecast for the area and that may be necessary but is only half the story. It's planning your caving day by interpreting the forecast/historical data alongside knowledge of how individual caves, routes and sections of cave respond to different amounts of rain at different times that is the difficult part. I imagine that's what Pitlamp is referring to. This is a more difficult, subtle skill and if cavers don't pay attention to it accidents will happen! I was in Yorkshire on Thursday through to Sunday and the water levels in Notts Pot rose significantly on Thursday afternoon. We (and other parties) had chosen a route that wasn't too affected by water but making the right choice on the day is a combination of experience and local knowledge. I'm very aware that there are people who cave in Yorkshire all the time who are better at this than me. You try to get better don't you!

Jules.

 

[Dep]

Wouldn't a sensible discussion of the incident as far as procedures and techniques used in the incident, by cavers who should in theory have a proper practical understanding of what they are talking about, rather than a coroner's jury who don't; wouldn't this be more likely to produce useful feedback and pointers for the caving community.

Only a caver or someone with experience would understand the difference between an easily rigged hauling system in theory - and the realities of doing this in the wet, on rough rocks, whilst tired, stressed and hauling a dead-weight etc etc...

 

[Andy Sparrow]

Where do you tap into "local knowledge"?

Anyone can get hold of a decent weather forecast for the area and that may be necessary but is only half the story. It's planning your caving day by interpreting the forecast/historical data alongside knowledge of how individual caves, routes and sections of cave respond to different amounts of rain at different times that is the difficult part. I imagine that's what Pitlamp is referring to. This is a more difficult, subtle skill and if cavers don't pay attention to it accidents will happen! I was in Yorkshire on Thursday through to Sunday and the water levels in Notts Pot rose significantly on Thursday afternoon. We (and other parties) had chosen a route that wasn't too affected by water but making the right choice on the day is a combination of experience and local knowledge. I'm very aware that there are people who cave in Yorkshire all the time who are better at this than me. You try to get better don't you!

Jules.

Yes, I agree with you entirely.  It takes years to develop the skill of knowing what you CAN do safely in dubious weather.  Until such time as that skill is honed the only safe policy is a cautious one based upon forecasts - and that is really the only safe message that can be conveyed to the inexperienced if we want to avoid more tragedies like Thursday's.

 

[Andy Sparrow]

Wouldn't a sensible discussion of the incident as far as procedures and techniques used in the incident, by cavers who should in theory have a proper practical understanding of what they are talking about, rather than a coroner's jury who don't; wouldn't this be more likely to produce useful feedback and pointers for the caving community.

Only a caver or someone with experience would understand the difference between an easily rigged hauling system in theory - and the realities of doing this in the wet, on rough rocks, whilst tired, stressed and hauling a dead-weight etc etc...

Yes. Which is why I posted this back on page 1....

I can see almost no circumstances in UK caving where it would be necessary to attempt a self-rescue hoist of an unconscious casualty.  Quite apart from the obvious effects of hanging a hypothermic person under a waterfall there are the other considerations of harness suspension syndrome and airway management.

The only sensible course of action, I would suggest, in the circumstances described would be:

Call out cave rescue urgently
Remove casualty from spray and draughts
Insulate from the ground
Use body heat and any spare clothing to reduce heat loss (especially around the head)

Specialist survival equipment like a bivy bag, shelter, or blizzard pack is an obvious potential life saver in this situation.

 

[Pitlamp]

For "the Ferret" (a few posts above) - what I mean is that weather forecasts are often wrong. For some reason the BBC has often been spectacularly wrong this year in particular. You mention other sources of information - I can claim some authority here because I'm actually a CDG visbot contributor. In fact the visbot was originally my idea, made workable by the superb efforts of Rob Murgatroyd. I suggested that it would actually be very useful for cavers at large, not just cave divers. So I do watch the weather very carefully and I am certain that weather forecasts shouldn't necessarily be relied upon. Too often a large amount of rain arrives which is not forecast.

Which brings me to a more recent posting of Andy Sparrow's (just above) in which he stresses the importance of erring very much on the side of caution. Andy - I couldn't agree more with that sentiment.

 

[cap n chris]

Assuming that someone knows, is it possible to have a list of catchment sizes, aspects, gradients etc. for the main active systems in the UK? If no-one presently does know, would this not be a useful project for someone with adequate GIS software to produce for the benefit of UK Cavers? I'm a-guessin' it would be significantly useful. 

 

[NigR]

There is no substitute for a good wetsuit for avoidance of hypothermia on very wet caving trips; under/oversuit combinations are not as effective in these circumstances.

I would like to endorse this comment. Far too many cavers these days insist on wearing 'dry' gear on trips where a wetsuit would be a much more sensible option. Sooner or later someone will pay the ultimate price as a result.

I also agree with Pitlamp and Andy Sparrow that it is always best to err on the side of caution if in the slightest doubt with regard to the danger of flooding. Don't insist on descending flood-prone systems in dubious weather conditions just because you have your heart set on that particular trip, even if you have travelled a considerable distance. The cave will always be there another day whereas you may not be if you make the wrong decision.

 

[Hatstand]

There is no substitute for a good wetsuit for avoidance of hypothermia on very wet caving trips; under/oversuit combinations are not as effective in these circumstances.

I would like to endorse this comment. Far too many cavers these days insist on wearing 'dry' gear on trips where a wetsuit would be a much more sensible option. Sooner or later someone will pay the ultimate price as a result.

I suspect this really belongs in a "furry vs neoprene" topic although if you say that then the last couple of pages belong in a "are weather forecasts worth a damn" thread but all the same...

...one of my main problems when caving (kit wise anyway!) is that I overheat very easily. As a result my usual attire is one of Mr Warmbac's very thin expedition fleeces with an oversuit. This is normally pretty close to perfect even when getting wet, so long as I keep moving. It is always a problem that if I stop too long I start to get cold but I suspect the same would apply if I was wearing neoprene and sweating my bollox off. It is always a real compromise and I have been aware for a long time that I should really be carrying a large carrier bag to climb into should I have to sit anything out for a long time - I guess this might actually give me enough of a kick up the arse to do something about it.

Meanwhile I bought a neofleece. This was meant to be for a DYO green canal trip where neoprene is alledged to be compulsory. Alas I never got to try it due to alien intervention or somesuch but I must admit I wasn't looking forward to the long crawl in such a hot suit. My first use of the neo in anger was down Swillies in quite high water conditions. It was good fun and yes I was nice and warm, although I did wonder whether I would have been better off in a fleece and oversuit because then I would have worked harder at staying dry! I wondered if the neo made me complacent and whether after a certain length of time I would suddenly feel very cold.

A quick aside - my first ever experience of neoprene was a surfing wetsuit worn under a boiler suit and I was fine in the water but as soon as I got out I was near hypothermic - I have also gotten immersed neck deep for up to half an hour in a pile undersuit and boilersuit combo and after the first 5 or so minutes been quite ok, then nice and toasty warm once out the water, although it must be stressed that we kept moving and didn't stop and sit down.

I'm not entirely sure what I am trying to suggest by all of this, except perhaps my own inexperience and lack of answers in the what to wear debate.

I do know that down Swillies that day was a really good reminder about respect one should have for water - how what is normally a piss easy 3 foot climb up can turn into a prize sod with only a bit more water. I suspect, and plan to base my survival on (until corrected of course) on the assumption that hanging around in fast flowing flood waters is gonna kill me pretty quickly whatever I'm wearing!!  :blink:

 

[Andy Sparrow]

There is no substitute for a good wetsuit for avoidance of hypothermia on very wet caving trips; under/oversuit combinations are not as effective in these circumstances.

I would like to endorse this comment. Far too many cavers these days insist on wearing 'dry' gear on trips where a wetsuit would be a much more sensible option. Sooner or later someone will pay the ultimate price as a result.

If you have two cavers, one in a wetsuit and one in a undersuit/oversuit, and they get stranded up to their necks in water, the one in the wetsuit will survive longer.  But if, even after a thorough dunking, these guys are left to sit it out in a dry passage, the one in the undersuit/oversuit will survive longest. 

This is because the undersuit/oversuit provides better insulation.  I know this to be true because I spent the first 10 years of my caving life miserably cold in a wetsuit and the subsequent 28 years warmer and more comfortable in what is described here (inaccurately I would suggest) as 'dry' gear.

There are a few UK caves where swimming or prolonged immersion in water justify the use of a wetsuit.  I prefer my neofleece for Swildons round trip but  not much else.   

 

[theFerret]

In reply to Pitlamp above: I agree entirely that erring on the side of caution is always best and if you know that levels are high and the forecast is patchy or unreliable then dont go in wet systems. On the vis bot side that is a job well done, i am based in south wales but cave in the dales a lot and it is invaluable for me to find out what is going on up there before i get up there to see. On a side note does anyone know where Owen Clark is based as his information would be useful but it supposedly covers the whole of South Wales? I do aggree that forecasts are not always reliable but its useful to take them into account when deciding on trips etc.

 

[Slug]

  I just thought I ought to add, both My Brother in law and His wife used to be Met. Officers/Forecasters.on R.A.F. Bases.  He was always saying that " We get it right 38% of the time ", when asked about the 62% inaccuracy rate the answer was always the same. " Ah well, It's not an exact science You know" . Even He admits that a weather forecast should be regarded as " Advisory" rather than Gospel truth. On its own it only gives part of the story, the rest is down to the afore mentioned personal experience, guidebook advise, and local knowledge.

 

[Les W]

On a side note does anyone know where Owen Clark is based as his information would be useful but it supposedly covers the whole of South Wales?

Owen is based in Abersychan, Pontypool

 

[theFerret]

Les, thanks for that ive asked the website and several others but not found out where the readings came from, useful to know.

 

[T pot 1]

Only thinking !!
But would a dry traverse route to the right hand side of Garlands over to the ledge that leads to Chert Hall (going down stream) help in very wet conditions, such as when this sad fatlility occured

T Pot