Should we still be caving?

[Stu]

I am delivering stuff to people in our Dales village. Stuff comes from the shop. All the village goes to the little shop and fondles the veg etc. There is zero chance of not coming into contact eventually, or probably already. I may  have had it to be honest (both of us had minor chest cough) Kids got thrown out of their various colleges in large cities a week ago and probably brought something home.
Going caving with my wife down Simpsons is several orders of magnitude less risky it seems to me. And risky to whom?
For info, the Dales and Lakes are shoulder-to-shoulder with tourists. City folk are fleeing to holiday cottages. It's all pointless.
My old Dad is sealed on the the top floor of a very expensive care home for the next 2 years. Nothing else to be done.

Those tourists are people. You are people. It's people that are now the problem. MRT are advising (begging) people to keep any activity low key - those are the people who you would be putting at potential risk.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/llanberismrt/posts/

These guys probably thought they could justify the risk.

 

[Fjell]

I am vastly more likely to kill vulnerable pensioners by handing them their morning paper.
But it has been decided in the parish that the risk is justified or all these people will waste away locked in their houses.
I really don't think caving is at that level of risk, even in the extremely unlikely event you get rescued (I never have been in nearly 40 years). Staying fit probably completely offsets it for cavers over 50.
I could build a model if you like, I used to do very high consequence risk assessment as part of my job.

 

[Stu]

I am vastly more likely to kill vulnerable pensioners by handing them their morning paper.
But it has been decided in the parish that the risk is justified or all these people will waste away locked in their houses.
I really don't think caving is at that level of risk, even in the extremely unlikely event you get rescued (I never have been in nearly 40 years). Staying fit probably completely offsets it for cavers over 50.
I could build a model if you like, I used to do very high consequence risk assessment as part of my job.

The details are already out there.

They can wash their hands. Sensible help is welcome.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest If the link doesn't work Google FT coronavirus tracking.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

 

[AR]

Matlock bath is heaving with chip eating idiots! could be less bikers about soon. ( no emoji)
stay away! no offence intended. O.G.

Ravenstor had several groups on climbers on it this morning, so it's not just in North Wales that people think it's still OK to go climbing.
Quite a few runners and cyclists out on the old railway line too. Guess they were thinking along the same lines as me ( out dog walking), get out early and get it done before the crowds arrive....

 

[Alex]

I am still caving but only caving with John (who I live with) I have also vastly reduced the difficulty of the caves I am doing and sticking to the photogenic caves instead. I am also caving on evenings rather than weekends, to avoid running into people. Leck Fell on Wednesday was completely vacant (yes I had a bloody permit!). I don't see the risk of injury in these sorts of caves any more than falling down my stairs at home, the consequences are of course more severe. I.e. call out. but being that I may be called out myself for someone else and I am still willing to attend then I see this as a fare trade-off. As with everything this is dynamic risk assessment so I may change my mind on this as time goes on. But without specific instructions from the government in this regard, I think all we can do is make our own choices.

Finally with me caving is my only form of stress relief, I was very depressed in my early 20s until I discovered caving and I fear not being able to do the sport that literally stops me from going mad, for an indeterminate amount of time, is very disconcerting for me personally. I suspect I am not the only one, where this is the case. For me, it's more than just something fun at the weekend.

I fear for the nations sanity and health with these measures, especially if we go into full lock down, I really do.

 

[Stu]

I am still caving but only caving with John (who I live with) I have also vastly reduced the difficulty of the caves I am doing and sticking to the photogenic caves instead. I am also caving on evenings rather than weekends, to avoid running into people. Leck Fell on Wednesday was completely vacant. I don't see the risk of injury in these sorts of caves any more than falling down my stairs at home, the consequences are of course more severe. I.e. call out. but being that I may be called out myself for someone else, and I am willing to accept that risk, I see this as a fare trade-off. As with everything this is dynamic risk assessment so I may change my mind on this as time goes on. But without specific instructions from the government in this regard, I think all we can do is make our own choices.

Finally with me caving is my only form of stress relief, I was very depressed in my early 20s until I discovered caving and I fear not being able to do the sport that literally stops me from going mad, for an indeterminate amount of time, is very disconcerting for me personally. I suspect I am not the only one, where this is the case. For me, it's more than just something fun at the weekend.

I fear for the nations sanity and health with these measures, especially if we go into full lock down, I really do.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on-social-distancing

No non-essential travel Alex.

You should fear for the nation's health too. The NHS is at breaking point. This will overwhelm it if we don't act responsibly.

 

[Stu]

I am vastly more likely to kill vulnerable pensioners by handing them their morning paper.
But it has been decided in the parish that the risk is justified or all these people will waste away locked in their houses.
I really don't think caving is at that level of risk, even in the extremely unlikely event you get rescued (I never have been in nearly 40 years). Staying fit probably completely offsets it for cavers over 50.
I could build a model if you like, I used to do very high consequence risk assessment as part of my job.

Fjell if you've not already seen this. Might be worth showing the parish people - food being sent out to the vulnerable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51994675

 

[Alex]

while public transport won?t stop, this should only be used for essential travel?

By the sounds of it that's talking about public transport as trains etc are breeding grounds, how am I to catch/spread it in my car? This I suspect was a rule made for London, which is all the government normally thinks about.

The roads are busier than anything today where I live, so it looks like cars are not included? The government needs to make up their mind: Borris has also just said:

It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise.

He says that - despite this - people must follow social distancing advice

Which I am.

Yes the NHS will be overwhelmed, because others are not playing by the social distancing rules huge pissups on Friday, and walking in large groups and flocking to popular areas everywhere. I fear it is also too late in that, god knows how many are now infected. However, I doubt a bit of low key caving (with people you already live with) will have any affect compared the complete shit-storm, that was this weekend.

 

[Pitlamp]

Here's the latest from our leader:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51998559

. . . which makes the point that if we don't act sensibly, worse impositions will inevitably follow.

 

[Fjell]

Millions of people are going to work with others every day. And they have to or people will starve and the lights will go out. There is no way of containing it. Those most likely to need need ICU need to be isolated, like our 4 parents. 1-2 of ours will be unlikely to survive without a vaccine, ICU or not.

 

[Stu]

while public transport won?t stop, this should only be used for essential travel?

By the sounds of it that's talking about public transport as trains etc are breeding grounds, how am I to catch/spread it in my car? This I suspect was a rule made for London, which is all the government normally thinks about.

The roads are busier than anything today where I live, so it looks like cars are not included? The government needs to make up their mind: Borris has also just said:

It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise.

He says that - despite this - people must follow social distancing advice

Which I am.

Yes the NHS will be overwhelmed, because others are not playing by the social distancing rules huge pissups on Friday, and walking in large groups and flocking to popular areas everywhere. I fear it is also too late in that, god knows how many are now infected. However, I doubt a bit of low key caving (with people you already live with) will have any affect compared the complete shit-storm, that was this weekend.

Public urged to stay at home and limit all but "essential travel - people?who can?work from home should?do so." Third bullet point in the first box as you scroll down on the link I provided.

Staying home for anything but essential trips is the only effective action. You going caving isn't essential, I'm sorry.

 

[Stu]

Millions of people are going to work with others every day. And they have to or people will starve and the lights will go out. There is no way of containing it. Those most likely to need need ICU need to be isolated, like our 4 parents. 1-2 of ours will be unlikely to survive without a vaccine, ICU or not.

South Korea have a lid on it. So has China. Our government started on one course of action (herd immunity - economy over people) then switched tack - the science changed (it didn't change).

We are behind the curve in terms of response and Italy's fate is probably ours (there is no place where the pandemic has taken hold that hasn't followed the same pattern in terms of our response). The problem is people. That's not other people, we are people.

I hope you can get some help, sincerely.

 

[Alex]

Yet they are also saying you should still go out and exercise, provided you keep to social distancing. So which is it? How can you go out and exercise if you are not to leave your house, what is travelling is walking down the street travelling or is it catching a plane? If walking down the street or cycling or in my case caving is classed as travelling then how are we to get out and excercise, which Boris a mere hour ago said we should do. It's all completely mixed messages, this government is a complete and utter pile of poo. I think this was why we saw such a shit-storm of a weekend. Though quite a few people I suspect simply don't care.

The WHO also says cycling and other sports is okay, provided again you stay away from others, I am going to listen to the WHO over those clowns we call a government any day.

P.s. I am indeed working from home, at least that bit was clear.

 

[Stu]

Yet they are also saying you should still go out and exercise, provided you keep to social distancing. So which is it? How can you go out and exercise if you are not to leave your house, what is travelling is walking down the street travelling or is it catching a plane? If walking down the street or cycling or in my case caving is classed as travelling then how are we to get out and excercise, which Boris a mere hour ago said we should do. It's all completely mixed messages, this government is a complete and utter pile of poo. I think this was why we saw such a shit-storm of a weekend. Though quite a few people I suspect simply don't care.

The WHO also says cycling and other sports is okay, provided again you stay away from others, I am going to listen to the WHO over those clowns we call a government any day.

P.s. I am indeed working from home, at least that bit was clear.

Exercise is for most people a 30 minute brisk walk. Keep your distance etc. Doing something that puts yourself at the need of outside assistance is something to avoid. You don't have many ICU beds up there.

I suspect in a week this will all be largely redundant.

 

[Alex]

I suspect in a week this will all be largely redundant.

That I suspect is correct.

Doing something that puts yourself at the need of outside assistance is something to avoid. You don't have many ICU beds up there.

But on your last point though, I best sleep downstairs and avoid the stairs, then as we know most accidents happen in the home! I have almost chopped my fingers off twice now that I am forced to cook!

 

[Speleotron]

Statistics like 'most accidents happen at home' are misleading because so many people are in the home compared to the numbers who go caving, you should look at accidents per person-hour of an activity.

 

[Stu]

Statistics like 'most accidents happen at home' are misleading because so many people are in the home compared to the numbers who go caving, you should look at accidents per person-hour of an activity.

Some people, and I'm really not trying to be rude, should look up false equivalence.

Of course there is risk at home. This isn't some zero sum game we're playing (though actually it might be  :-\). But minimising all risk might help alleviate the problem of emergency registrations of student nurses; retired medical staff being recalled; engineers being asked to bodge ventilators (no staff to operate them though); NHS staff with no PPE; no testing being done for staff at any meaningful rate etc.

 

[Fjell]

So the conclusion seems to be it?s all good as long as you don?t leave a callout. Why break the habit of a lifetime?

 

[David Rose]

Last time we were forbidden to access the countryside, caves included, was the foot and mouth epidemic. It seemed to go on forever at the time, but finally it ended. This will be the same. It will be intensely frustrating, scary, and for many of us, seriously impoverishing, but it will pass.

My guess is that by this time next week, there will be legal curbs on going for a recreational walk - in effect a curfew, enforced by police.

The somewhat encouraging news from Italy, where such measures have been in force for almost two weeks, is that the best measure of what's happening - the death rate -  is starting to show signs of a reduction in the rate of increase. A week ago it was 25 per cent a day. Today it was 12 per cent. And we are closely following Italy's trajectory. The evidence is starting to suggest that draconian measures will work, quite quickly.

read this:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[darren]

Some people, and I'm really not trying to be rude, should look up false equivalence.

I guess being rude must just be a knack if you don't have to try.