Author Topic: Should we still be caving?  (Read 2957 times)

Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2020, 05:29:35 pm »
I am still caving but only caving with John (who I live with) I have also vastly reduced the difficulty of the caves I am doing and sticking to the photogenic caves instead. I am also caving on evenings rather than weekends, to avoid running into people. Leck Fell on Wednesday was completely vacant. I don't see the risk of injury in these sorts of caves any more than falling down my stairs at home, the consequences are of course more severe. I.e. call out. but being that I may be called out myself for someone else, and I am willing to accept that risk, I see this as a fare trade-off. As with everything this is dynamic risk assessment so I may change my mind on this as time goes on. But without specific instructions from the government in this regard, I think all we can do is make our own choices.

Finally with me caving is my only form of stress relief, I was very depressed in my early 20s until I discovered caving and I fear not being able to do the sport that literally stops me from going mad, for an indeterminate amount of time, is very disconcerting for me personally. I suspect I am not the only one, where this is the case. For me, it's more than just something fun at the weekend.

I fear for the nations sanity and health with these measures, especially if we go into full lock down, I really do.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on-social-distancing

No non-essential travel Alex.

You should fear for the nation's health too. The NHS is at breaking point. This will overwhelm it if we don't act responsibly.
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Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2020, 05:38:45 pm »
I am vastly more likely to kill vulnerable pensioners by handing them their morning paper.
But it has been decided in the parish that the risk is justified or all these people will waste away locked in their houses.
I really don't think caving is at that level of risk, even in the extremely unlikely event you get rescued (I never have been in nearly 40 years). Staying fit probably completely offsets it for cavers over 50.
I could build a model if you like, I used to do very high consequence risk assessment as part of my job.

Fjell if you've not already seen this. Might be worth showing the parish people - food being sent out to the vulnerable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51994675
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Offline Alex

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #27 on: March 22, 2020, 05:40:25 pm »
Quote
while public transport won’t stop, this should only be used for essential travel 

By the sounds of it that's talking about public transport as trains etc are breeding grounds, how am I to catch/spread it in my car? This I suspect was a rule made for London, which is all the government normally thinks about.

The roads are busier than anything today where I live, so it looks like cars are not included? The government needs to make up their mind: Borris has also just said:

Quote
It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise.

Quote
He says that - despite this - people must follow social distancing advice

Which I am.

Yes the NHS will be overwhelmed, because others are not playing by the social distancing rules huge pissups on Friday, and walking in large groups and flocking to popular areas everywhere. I fear it is also too late in that, god knows how many are now infected. However, I doubt a bit of low key caving (with people you already live with) will have any affect compared the complete shit-storm, that was this weekend.
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Offline Pitlamp

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2020, 05:47:50 pm »
Here's the latest from our leader:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51998559

. . . which makes the point that if we don't act sensibly, worse impositions will inevitably follow.

Online Fjell

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2020, 05:49:35 pm »
Millions of people are going to work with others every day. And they have to or people will starve and the lights will go out. There is no way of containing it. Those most likely to need need ICU need to be isolated, like our 4 parents. 1-2 of ours will be unlikely to survive without a vaccine, ICU or not.

Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2020, 06:05:34 pm »
Quote
while public transport won’t stop, this should only be used for essential travel 

By the sounds of it that's talking about public transport as trains etc are breeding grounds, how am I to catch/spread it in my car? This I suspect was a rule made for London, which is all the government normally thinks about.

The roads are busier than anything today where I live, so it looks like cars are not included? The government needs to make up their mind: Borris has also just said:

Quote
It is very important for people's mental and physical wellbeing that they should be able to get out and exercise.

Quote
He says that - despite this - people must follow social distancing advice

Which I am.

Yes the NHS will be overwhelmed, because others are not playing by the social distancing rules huge pissups on Friday, and walking in large groups and flocking to popular areas everywhere. I fear it is also too late in that, god knows how many are now infected. However, I doubt a bit of low key caving (with people you already live with) will have any affect compared the complete shit-storm, that was this weekend.

Public urged to stay at home and limit all but "essential travel - people who can work from home should do so." Third bullet point in the first box as you scroll down on the link I provided.

Staying home for anything but essential trips is the only effective action. You going caving isn't essential, I'm sorry.
I've roamed and rambled and I've followed my footsteps
To the sparkling sands of her diamond deserts
And all around me a voice was sounding
This land was made for you and me

Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2020, 06:10:04 pm »
Millions of people are going to work with others every day. And they have to or people will starve and the lights will go out. There is no way of containing it. Those most likely to need need ICU need to be isolated, like our 4 parents. 1-2 of ours will be unlikely to survive without a vaccine, ICU or not.

South Korea have a lid on it. So has China. Our government started on one course of action (herd immunity - economy over people) then switched tack - the science changed (it didn't change).

We are behind the curve in terms of response and Italy's fate is probably ours (there is no place where the pandemic has taken hold that hasn't followed the same pattern in terms of our response). The problem is people. That's not other people, we are people.

I hope you can get some help, sincerely.
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Offline Alex

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2020, 06:10:49 pm »
Yet they are also saying you should still go out and exercise, provided you keep to social distancing. So which is it? How can you go out and exercise if you are not to leave your house, what is travelling is walking down the street travelling or is it catching a plane? If walking down the street or cycling or in my case caving is classed as travelling then how are we to get out and excercise, which Boris a mere hour ago said we should do. It's all completely mixed messages, this government is a complete and utter pile of poo. I think this was why we saw such a shit-storm of a weekend. Though quite a few people I suspect simply don't care.

The WHO also says cycling and other sports is okay, provided again you stay away from others, I am going to listen to the WHO over those clowns we call a government any day.

P.s. I am indeed working from home, at least that bit was clear.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 06:21:36 pm by Alex »
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Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2020, 06:24:40 pm »
Yet they are also saying you should still go out and exercise, provided you keep to social distancing. So which is it? How can you go out and exercise if you are not to leave your house, what is travelling is walking down the street travelling or is it catching a plane? If walking down the street or cycling or in my case caving is classed as travelling then how are we to get out and excercise, which Boris a mere hour ago said we should do. It's all completely mixed messages, this government is a complete and utter pile of poo. I think this was why we saw such a shit-storm of a weekend. Though quite a few people I suspect simply don't care.

The WHO also says cycling and other sports is okay, provided again you stay away from others, I am going to listen to the WHO over those clowns we call a government any day.

P.s. I am indeed working from home, at least that bit was clear.

Exercise is for most people a 30 minute brisk walk. Keep your distance etc. Doing something that puts yourself at the need of outside assistance is something to avoid. You don't have many ICU beds up there.

I suspect in a week this will all be largely redundant.
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Offline Alex

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2020, 06:27:28 pm »
Quote
I suspect in a week this will all be largely redundant.

That I suspect is correct.

Quote
Doing something that puts yourself at the need of outside assistance is something to avoid. You don't have many ICU beds up there.

But on your last point though, I best sleep downstairs and avoid the stairs, then as we know most accidents happen in the home! I have almost chopped my fingers off twice now that I am forced to cook!
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Online Speleotron

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2020, 06:29:20 pm »
Statistics like 'most accidents happen at home' are misleading because so many people are in the home compared to the numbers who go caving, you should look at accidents per person-hour of an activity.
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Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2020, 06:36:38 pm »
Statistics like 'most accidents happen at home' are misleading because so many people are in the home compared to the numbers who go caving, you should look at accidents per person-hour of an activity.

Some people, and I'm really not trying to be rude, should look up false equivalence.

Of course there is risk at home. This isn't some zero sum game we're playing (though actually it might be  :-\). But minimising all risk might help alleviate the problem of emergency registrations of student nurses; retired medical staff being recalled; engineers being asked to bodge ventilators (no staff to operate them though); NHS staff with no PPE; no testing being done for staff at any meaningful rate etc.
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Online Fjell

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2020, 06:39:39 pm »
So the conclusion seems to be it’s all good as long as you don’t leave a callout. Why break the habit of a lifetime?

Offline David Rose

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2020, 06:47:40 pm »
Last time we were forbidden to access the countryside, caves included, was the foot and mouth epidemic. It seemed to go on forever at the time, but finally it ended. This will be the same. It will be intensely frustrating, scary, and for many of us, seriously impoverishing, but it will pass.

My guess is that by this time next week, there will be legal curbs on going for a recreational walk - in effect a curfew, enforced by police.

The somewhat encouraging news from Italy, where such measures have been in force for almost two weeks, is that the best measure of what's happening - the death rate -  is starting to show signs of a reduction in the rate of increase. A week ago it was 25 per cent a day. Today it was 12 per cent. And we are closely following Italy's trajectory. The evidence is starting to suggest that draconian measures will work, quite quickly.

read this:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca


Offline darren

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2020, 06:49:52 pm »


Some people, and I'm really not trying to be rude, should look up false equivalence.


I guess being rude must just be a knack if you don't have to try.
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Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2020, 07:05:59 pm »


Some people, and I'm really not trying to be rude, should look up false equivalence.


I guess being rude must just be a knack if you don't have to try.

Apologies if it came across that way. People are scared and worried and, like me, are facing massive upheavals (loss of work). Exercise by all means. That's not stopped, yet. But caving, climbing, whatever it may be must take second place to everyone playing their part.
I've roamed and rambled and I've followed my footsteps
To the sparkling sands of her diamond deserts
And all around me a voice was sounding
This land was made for you and me

Online Fulk

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2020, 07:07:37 pm »
Well, it’s 5 to 7 on Sunday evening, and I’ve just watched the news on ITV; I was utterly amazed and appalled at the footage shown there of people flocking to parks, outdoor gyms, countryside venues, ice-cream vans – you name it. There were pictures of people walking up Snowdon in a long crocodile (I guess that there must be some steps forming a sort of bottleneck), footage of kids playing (full-contact) football, pictures of a lane leading to a Cornish beach with cars parked nose-to-tail on each side of the road. The outdoor gym was, in some respects, the most bizarre, with people exercising in close proximity to each other and then moving on to another piece of apparatus (presumably ignorant of the fact that on steel the virus can remain active for at least 72 hours). They interviewed one guy who said (I paraphrase from memory), ‘It’s great out here; they’ve shut down the indoor gym, so it’s great to get out for a bit of exercise in the fresh air’. (Erm, you didn’t stop to wonder why they closed the indoor gym?)
So – unless the government imposes a compulsory lock-down, we’re going to go the same way as Italy (that is, if it’s not already too late).

Offline Alex

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #42 on: March 22, 2020, 07:19:50 pm »
It did seem rather rude to me too, I am aware of false equivalences and my last response was more tonge and cheek. But having a go at me or other cavers who are doing what in our view is a responsible thing, I mean we are as far away as we can get from other people, seems to be at best wasted effort. Ire should be directed at all those stupid people going up Snowdon etc. The people who have no concept of staying a way from others. Me and John have actually spoke to several doctors on this (we know quite a few) and saying what we are doing is fine, provided we keep the risks down and of course avoid other people. I will say no more on this we need to stand together (3m apart) and tackle this thing and support each other not get on our high horses. (Because horse riding is bloody dangerous).

P.s. Fjell, I suspect you were taking the piss, but not leaving a call out is a bad idea, because imagine the amount of resources would be needed to find you after you do not turn up for work the next day. Better to let people know where you are even if you decide to set it to next day.
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Online Mark Wright

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #43 on: March 22, 2020, 07:27:51 pm »
I think one of the main problems is there will always be people who think the restrictions don't apply to them. Sometimes justified but in most cases, not.

I was out with the Buttered Badger Trail Bike Riding Club yesterday and there were loads of people out in Derbyshire, definitely not following the 2m rule. Whilst we were 2m apart on the trails, we definitely weren't following the 2m rule when we stopped for lunch at a cafe. They were only offering a take-away service but all 5 of us were sat together on a bench outside. The other 4 benches had similar numbers of motorcyclists sat at them.

Whilst we may be able to selfishly justify continuing with our caving and other outdoor activities to ourselves, our next door neighbours are likely to think, 'if they are going out caving or motorcycling all the time then I'm off to Meadowhall shopping centre'.

There are plenty of exercises we can do at home. They may not be as good for us as caving or trail bike riding but we can all stay physically healthy. We could get a short length of caving rope and do some skipping for one.

If we (myself included) continue to think we know better and the restrictions don't apply to us then I wouldn't be surprised if a total lockdown isn't imposed within the next 48 hours.

Mark

 

Online TheBitterEnd

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2020, 07:42:06 pm »
I went out to get some fuel this morning and it being a nice day I thought I'd stop off somewhere quiet for a walk on the way back. I drove up the single track C road to a place where I have only ever seen one or two cars besides myself in the past and it was rammed, there must have been a dozen cars. It was mainly family groups and everyone was well spaced but touching gates and styles is unavoidable. With plenty of UV and dry weather I doubt the virus is staying around long on surfaces outside but with a constant flow of people there must be a chance of it spreading through that sort of contact.
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Offline Pitlamp

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #45 on: March 22, 2020, 07:50:40 pm »
This article appeared on the BBC website a few minutes ago; it may or may not help.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51506729

I've found this forum topic useful as it's helped focus my own thoughts on the matter.  Having avoided caving today I've been able to follow this very civil discussion as it's developed and I've modified my plans as a result.

I may also no longer have an excuse to put off decorating.   :o   :'(

Offline mikem

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #46 on: March 22, 2020, 08:07:46 pm »
Statistics like 'most accidents happen at home' are misleading because so many people are in the home compared to the numbers who go caving, you should look at accidents per person-hour of an activity.

There is a long post on accident statistics from a few years ago, if you want to search for it.

Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #47 on: March 22, 2020, 08:10:08 pm »
It did seem rather rude to me too, I am aware of false equivalences and my last response was more tonge and cheek. But having a go at me or other cavers who are doing what in our view is a responsible thing, I mean we are as far away as we can get from other people, seems to be at best wasted effort. Ire should be directed at all those stupid people going up Snowdon etc. The people who have no concept of staying a way from others. Me and John have actually spoke to several doctors on this (we know quite a few) and saying what we are doing is fine, provided we keep the risks down and of course avoid other people. I will say no more on this we need to stand together (3m apart) and tackle this thing and support each other not get on our high horses. (Because horse riding is bloody dangerous).

P.s. Fjell, I suspect you were taking the piss, but not leaving a call out is a bad idea, because imagine the amount of resources would be needed to find you after you do not turn up for work the next day. Better to let people know where you are even if you decide to set it to next day.

Alex, please accept my sincerest apologies. It really wasn't my intention to insult you.

I do stand by my point about other people and how in this instance those people are us. You and me. The threat isn't just from the virus re: contracting it or transmission. There is a very likely possibility that our health service might fail. Not adding any extra burden must surely be the right thing to do.

An analogy my acute care doctor friend used - people need to ensure that what the hospitals face is a dripping tap not a tsunami.

Please be safe and sane.
I've roamed and rambled and I've followed my footsteps
To the sparkling sands of her diamond deserts
And all around me a voice was sounding
This land was made for you and me

Online Fjell

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #48 on: March 22, 2020, 08:32:56 pm »
The Netherlands (where I have lived off and on quite a bit) is officially going for herd immunity (publicly stated by the PM) alongside efforts to spread it out. No discussion about stopping people going out, but stay 1.5m from people. Universities still teaching in smaller groups. Cannabis only available as a takeaway, rather than in cafe. Brothels to remain closed until 6th April.
I love the Dutch. Zero bullshit.

I should point out their healthcare system is greatly superior to the UK’s in my experience.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 08:42:39 pm by Fjell »

Offline Stuart Anderson

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Re: Should we still be caving?
« Reply #49 on: March 22, 2020, 08:57:58 pm »

I love the Dutch. Zero bullshit.

I should point out their healthcare system is greatly superior to the UK’s in my experience.

I think that's crucial in this case.
I've roamed and rambled and I've followed my footsteps
To the sparkling sands of her diamond deserts
And all around me a voice was sounding
This land was made for you and me

 

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