Is it OK to go caving?

[Benfool]

Yes of course, Corona virus is passed in droplet of saliva, so it could definitely be passed by sharing a regulator.

However water (especially salty water) is very good as killing viruses, so I suspect the chance of this happening is relatively low, more so if you don't primary donate.

B

 

[Fjell]

Agree to swill it around in the sea for 20 sec between breaths. Should probably do it.

 

[pwhole]

Without wishing to sound like an endless gripe (and I'm not rich enough to be 'enjoying' the lockdown), herd immunity doesn't seem to be working out too well in Brazil (where it's hot) or Russia (where it's not), or the US (where it's both), all of which have had patchy lockdowns at best, and are all led by autocratic male plonkers with dubious personalities - I'm being kind here. At least Bolsonaro and Trump are trying to get infected, which is in their favour, rather than hiding in a cellar, but there you go. As long as they don't take their shirts off.

The best lockdowns around the world have produced the least deaths and the fastest societal 'recoveries'. They also have the most compliant (obedient?)/responsible citizens more willing to engage with the government's objectives. I'm not endorsing that, just observing it.

Judging by what happened at Weston-Super-Mare and other seaside towns this weekend, I think we need to wait and see if there are any serious effects on the Somerset figures as a result. They can't all have been visitors from afar, though I gather plenty were. But if nothing's happened in three weeks I'll feel more confident it's genuinely on the wane there. If there's a massive spike we'll have big problems, as many people will have been ignoring social distancing for three whole weeks, and so could have co-infected thousands each. I doubt we'll be worrying about caving access any longer if that happens.

 

[AR]

My wife's currently in hospital and after tonight's clap for carers, she heard the nurses saying they'd much rather people stuck with social distancing than clapping at their front doors once a week...

 

[PeteHall]

They don't seem to be doing much of either around where I live anymore. Perhaps a bit of social distancing still, but I only heard about 1 house clapping tonight while putting the kids to bed.

I think everyone is getting bored of it...

 

[RobinGriffiths]

My wife's currently in hospital and after tonight's clap for carers, she heard the nurses saying they'd much rather people stuck with social distancing than clapping at their front doors once a week...

Agree. All gone to pot round here in N Wales.

 

[pwhole]

The study in this report about Sweden doesn't add much reassurance to the herd immunity theory either:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

 

[Katie]

Judging by what happened at Weston-Super-Mare and other seaside towns this weekend, I think we need to wait and see if there are any serious effects on the Somerset figures as a result.

I did think the same about VE day - I wondered if the celebrations would result in an increase of confirmed cases with the next 2 weeks. However we are now 2 weeks past VE day and although we cannot tell if numbers of confirmed cases might have decreased faster with it, it does look like VE day hasn't caused a big rise in numbers.

 

[mikem]

Deaths are certainly reducing at a fairly steady rate.

Back on the subject of regs - choice of maybe catching covid, or definitely drowning - hmm... (although as mentioned by others there are several mitigations against ever getting into this situation)

 

[Pitlamp]

So - what have we learned about "not getting into this situation"?
It seems to me there are two obvious things divers could do:

1. Dive in the sea rather than at freshwater locations and / or,

2. Don't dive without your own separate air source, instead of relying on the buddy system of sharing.

There are other potential issues with the buddy system, for example the buddy check before going in the water. (Just to explain for non divers; this involves pawing through your buddy's gear to familiarise yourself exactly how it's configured, so you can intervene quickly underwater if needed in an emergency.) Suppose the dive then doesn't go ahead for some reason; the equipment may then be contaminated. All the above suggests that the "solo ethic" advocated by British cave divers (which encourages total self reliance using back up systems) has more to be said for it even than normal.

 

[The Old Ruminator]

No self-respecting diver should ever go diving without a separate air supply. When diving over 25 years I have had most types of scenarios.

Here is one.
My HP hose burst at the junction with the 1st stage.  Apart from nearly blowing my head off all my air was gone within minutes.

I can think of others. Anyway air sharing rarely works in a stressful situation particularly when the other party has no buoyancy.  Another time my pressure guage was sticking at 50 bar so giving a false reading even when the tank was empty.

 

[The Old Ruminator]

Anyway back on topic.

You would not mind if all scientists agreed.

"  A leading scientist has called for lockdown rules to be loosened more quickly, saying the coronavirus pandemic has already infected half of Britain?s population and is ?on its way out?.

Prominent Oxford epidemiologist Professor Sunetra Gupta told unherd.com that the UK had based its handling of the crisis on the worst-case scenario and called for a ?more rapid exit from lockdown?.

Prof Gupta also argued that there is a ?strong possibility? that the UK could return to normal, including pubs, nightclubs and restaurants reopening, without great risk. "

 

[Speleotron]

"  A leading scientist has called for lockdown rules to be loosened more quickly, saying the coronavirus pandemic has already infected half of Britain?s population and is ?on its way out?.

We'll see when we have antibody testing. What will people have left to speculate about once this is answered once and for all?

 

[mikem]

It's much easier making predictions after the fact!

Plenty of undiscovered cave passage to pontificate about...

 

[PeteHall]

We'll see when we have antibody testing. What will people have left to speculate about once this is answered once and for all?

Did you read the article David Rose linked earlier? I'm no medical expert, but the claims of that particular expert are that antibody testing doesn't tell you much:

As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity. First, many of the antibody tests are ?extremely unreliable? and rely on hard-to-achieve representative groups. But more important, many people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don?t show up on antibody tests ? either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities to related coronaviruses such as the common cold.

 

[Speleotron]

The Roche test is 100 % accurate apparently. And its now confirmed that people testing positive for Covid a few weeks after recovering from it aren't being re-infected or having a dormant virus re-emerge its just harmless viral RNA fragments still hanging around and setting off the test.

 

[mikem]

100% accuracy is impossible to prove...

 

[MarkS]

I think this is a useful article on how to interpret test accuracy.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-news-reports-that-phe-have-said-roche-antibody-test-is-a-very-positive-development-and-that-assessments-at-porton-down-found-it-was-highly-specific/

 

[Speleotron]

OK how about 'as close to 100 % as the precision of the experiment could allow'. Anyway it's supposedly a very good test and it should be a game-changer. Better than being in the dark like we are now.

 

[mikem]

Presumably they are testing samples that have been stored since before the outbreak, but have they been testing those known to have similar antibodies?

Also the test has been at least 14 days after infection, so it's possible to become infected before you get negative results back.

It is a step in the right direction, but not a Panacea.