"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[Speleotron]

a lot of people who had underlying conditions have sadly perished over a short space of time and that may show in a decrease in the death rate in subsequent years.
Dave

I don't think this is going to happen. I think it's incorrect to say that people dying of Covid were going to be dead soon anyway (and it's a bit dismissive of them). Many of the co-morbidities which make you vulnerable to covid are things you can live with for years or decades before they kill you, if they even do. Things like diabetes, COPD, hypertension and obesity. Covid kills in 2 to 4 weeks so what are the odds that all these people were just about to die of a decades-long condition when they got Covid?

 

[mikem]

Although it's not the virus that actually finishes you off:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-flu-actually-kill-people/

Some previous major epidemics:
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/03/03/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times/

 

[Speleotron]

Although it's not the virus that actually finishes you off:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-flu-actually-kill-people/

Some previous major epidemics:
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/03/03/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times/

Coronaviruses aren't related to influenza viruses at all so I don't know if we can assume the same for Covid-19. SARS-CoV-2's mode of action isn't well understood we're only now seeing a new raft of symptoms and complications.

 

[mikem]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

& this explains the difference:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/21/how-does-the-covid-19-coronavirus-kill-what-happens-when-you-get-infected/amp/

 

[pwhole]

That spiral graph is a beautiful thing, and the best model of the data I've seen.

This development is potentially quite scary if proven and goes back to my previous points about sex in the future. As in, how little there might be between 'new' couples - without national testing at least:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/covid-19-found-in-semen-of-infected-men-say-chinese-doctors

However, a very interesting article recently surfaced, albeit briefly, about tobacco smokers - erm - getting less Covid-19. You'd think it might have been on the news by now, but it seems it's not a very interesting issue for most of the media - it being somewhat problematic I suppose. That bloody science can be awkward sometimes. But some French researchers find it so interesting that a trial of nicotine patches is awaiting approval:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

The more technical article with the report findings is here:

https://www.qeios.com/read/FXGQSB.2

I often get told off for smoking, understandably I suppose. So I'm trying really, really hard to be neutral here - ever the saint. Maybe snuff could be due for a comeback?  :halo:

 

[mikem]

It could be that the cigarettes are toxic, or your lungs might just be used to coping with poor performance.

 

[pwhole]

Possibly. I got to the choke in Stoke Sough with no issues and that was 10.6% oxygen just there, though clearly that wasn't fully replaced by CO2. Dunno really - it's not a boast, just an observation.

Nicotine has traditionally been used as an insecticide, so it clearly has some beneficial properties - though admittedly the properties are still poisonous ones.

 

[Speleotron]

Nicotine has traditionally been used as an insecticide, so it clearly has some beneficial properties -

Just because it kills insects doesn't mean it will do anything against viruses! That's like saying that I'm good at playing Bridge so I'll probably make a good astronaught.

 

[mikem]

Naut a good analogy 

 

[Speleotron]

Haha. I hose the analogy because killing insects is easy but 'killing' viruses is really really hard. And there's pretty much nothing in common between them.

PS I meant 'killing' viruses is really hard once they're in the body. Easy to 'kill' them if they're on a doorknob.

 

[kay]

Fewer people die at new year...?

And at late May and August Bank Holidays. I remember attending a statistics lecture at which they guy demonstrated a reduction of deaths at major religious festivals (he was woking with Jewish data, as a population more uniformly likley to celebrate religious festivals) - a general "holding on" to the until the event.

 

[Chocolate fireguard]

And at late May and August Bank Holidays. I remember attending a statistics lecture at which they guy demonstrated a reduction of deaths at major religious festivals (he was woking with Jewish data, as a population more uniformly likley to celebrate religious festivals) - a general "holding on" to the until the event.

I assume that what the guy was trying to get across was that interpreting numbers without some understanding of the process that generates them can lead to wrong (even daft) conclusions?

 

[kay]

Maybe nearly %80 of people have had Covid-19 without knowing.

That's rather a big assumption!

Now if you were doing a risk assessment for a reasonably fit caver under age 45 I wonder what the result would be. Maybe a one in a million plus chances of dying from Covid-19.

Beware of confusing "reasonably fit" with "no underlying health conditions". You can have underlying  health conditions which are controlled , with a future life expectancy of decades, and by physically fit. Yet still be at greater risk to Covid.

Have we been led by the nose into a disastrous economical and social situation for relatively nothing ?

There would have been a disastrous economic and social situation regardless. I belong to an organisation which puts on participatory instrumental workshops,. The couple of weeks before the lockdown were a fever of activity as we worked out what H&S measure to take, whether to give refunds to the increasing number of people cancelling, whether to cancel workshops and whether to pay the workshop leaders for cancelled workshops. The country was beginning to take matters into its own hands. It's not a simple choice between "lockdown/economic disater" and "no lockdown/no damage to economy". Nor, as I've seen on other forums, could you simply lockdown the "vulnerable" - the vulnerable are embedded in society - they include key workers in food and NHS, volunteers keeping important services goin, grandparents providing child care so other people can go to work.

 

[kay]

And at late May and August Bank Holidays. I remember attending a statistics lecture at which they guy demonstrated a reduction of deaths at major religious festivals (he was woking with Jewish data, as a population more uniformly likely to celebrate religious festivals) - a general "holding on" to the until the event.

I assume that what the guy was trying to get across was that interpreting numbers without some understanding of the process that generates them can lead to wrong (even daft) conclusions?

No, that wasn't my memory (it was 40+ years ago). As this was at an academic conference of statisticians the conclusions would have been quite robustly challenged

 

[Chocolate fireguard]

And at late May and August Bank Holidays. I remember attending a statistics lecture at which they guy demonstrated a reduction of deaths at major religious festivals (he was woking with Jewish data, as a population more uniformly likely to celebrate religious festivals) - a general "holding on" to the until the event.

I assume that what the guy was trying to get across was that interpreting numbers without some understanding of the process that generates them can lead to wrong (even daft) conclusions?

No, that wasn't my memory (it was 40+ years ago). As this was at an academic conference of statisticians the conclusions would have been quite robustly challenged

The main feature of that diagram is what would be expected: higher death rate in the colder months.
The smooth nature between end August & mid December where there are no public holidays, together with the spikiness in the spring where there are some which move about a bit plus one that doesn't, suggests that the figures are influenced by holidays.
The very large drop at Christmas and the higher than expected rate afterwards suggests that this one has more influence than the others.
No argument about any of that.

But I can't believe that every year between a third and a half of the people who would be expected to die in that week decide to hang on for a bit longer. Sorry.

 

[Speleotron]

Could it be that there are few doctors, coroners and statisticians working over christmas and new year so there is a drop in recorded deaths?

 

[Roger W]

If I have a heart attack on Christmas Day and expire over my festive dinner, and my family (who aren't medically qualified to say whether I'm dead or not) leave me sitting there in front of my Christmas Pud until Jan 2nd when my local medic can come and investigate - when will my death be registered as occurring?

 

[kay]

But I can't believe that every year between a third and a half of the people who would be expected to die in that week decide to hang on for a bit longer. Sorry.

No, you're absolutely right there. The paper I was talking about was looking at deaths in the Jewish population so festivals didn't correlate so well with public holidays. probably shouldn't have mentioned it as it's so long ago I can't remember the details. The audience of statisticians far more experienced than I was convinced that what was demonstrated was an effect that having an event to look forward to in the relatively near future had a  positive effect in those nearing death. So on that basis it wouldn't be surprising if some of the "bank holiday" effect was "real" rather than a recording effect.

 

[The Old Ruminator]

I have not read it yet but an account in today's Daily Mail rebuffing much of what we have been told.

 

[kay]

I have not read it yet but an account in today's Daily Mail rebuffing much of what we have been told.

"rebuffing"? Putting a new gloss on, or rebutting?