Covid 19

[ZombieCake]

This whole thing is beginning to remind me a bit like pat of the plot of Logan's Run.  (Spoiler alert)

The state controls everything. Everyone stay inside as outside is bad and if you try to run outside the Sandmen (police) will shoot you.   And when the crystal in your hand goes out that's it, game over.  For those that do manage to escape they find there's not actually much wrong with all the outside world, which upsets the state.

I may be being a bit cynical, however, the continual mixed messages and contrary reports is rather tiresome to say the least.

[pwhole]

Just wait until Soylent Green is available in ASDA...

[Laurie]

Except 'normality' will be a totally different 'normality'.

[MarkS]

Interesting to see there has now been a "proper" study on the effect of sunlight on the virus. The plots below show the inactivation rates for simulated sunlight (approx. winter solstice in Spain) vs. darkness. It suggests the virus would be able to last a lot longer in low-light conditions so is certainly relevant to caving, if not necessarily significant.

"The present study provides the first evidence that sunlight may rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, suggesting that surface persistence, and subsequently exposure risk, may vary significantly between indoor and outdoor environments."

[Fjell]

That’s a log scale, so the viral load drops by a factor of 30 in 20 mins in sunlight? And if you believed that was a anything like a straight line, down to zero in well less than an hour?

[Speleotron]

That’s a log scale, so the viral load drops by a factor of 30 in 20 mins in sunlight? And if you believed that was a anything like a straight line, down to zero in well less than an hour?

Looks like it, why would we not believe that? Maybe we can knock a bit off the effectiveness outside due to little nooks and crannies where the UV doesn't shine as much but there's no reason not to believe that study. UV is nature's great steriliser.

[rhychydwr1]

The 5 tribes of coronavirus: Society has divided up in surprising, and not so surprising ways

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/489356-coronavirus-divided-society-surprising-ways/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Email

[Fjell]

This is an interesting article with some data. It is a bi-modal group unfortunately, but the passenger group will all be over 60 pretty much.
It implies that 80% of cases were asymptomatic and also that about 40% just didn’t get it at all despite probably trying quite hard to do so, including many cases where people shared a cabin for a long period. Very prolonged exposure (viral load?) is implied as an issue (ships doctor got very ill).
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091
Anecdotally, a care home group I am getting info from is seeing mostly asymptomatic cases even amongst 80-90 year olds with dementia. In the absence of testing, it is a bit of a nightmare to manage as you might imagine.
The data would vaguely imply something like 12% of an exposed population would develop symptoms, which might not be that far off.

[mikem]

The medical staff are also suffering from increased stress & lack of sleep, which are well recognised factors in a loss of immunity, I think that's more of an issue than prolonged exposure per se.

[andrewmc]

It implies that 80% of cases were asymptomatic and also that about 40% just didn’t get it at all despite probably trying quite hard to do so, including many cases where people shared a cabin for a long period. Very prolonged exposure (viral load?) is implied as an issue (ships doctor got very ill).
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091

I read the same results and see a slightly different set of important details:

a) at least some of the tests are crap
b) _at least_ 59% of the ship's population were able to catch the virus. Some may have recovered and now had undetectable levels of viral RNA. So much for herd immunity... as an (ex-)astrophysicist, 50% is basically the same as 100%.
c) a large number of people were asymptomatic _but_ this needs to be kept in context with antibody testing which shows the majority of people have not yet had the virus (only ~5% in the UK, 20% in London I think). I think this level of asymptomatic-ness is probably consistent with the large discrepancy in the number of people who have tested positive (~270,000) vs the expected number of cases from antibody studies (about 3.5 million from 70,000,000 * 5%). The Covid-19 app was predicting about 2 million _symptomatic_ people infected at the peak, which might seem a bit high if the asymptomatic rate is 80%, but it might be catching other stuff and/or 'asymptomatic' could mean different things to different people.
d) admittedly based on small-number statistics (one death), but a 0.8% death rate, and a 6.2% medical evacuation rate.
e) yet more small-number statistics, but interesting that if you get symptoms at all (only 12.5%), you have a high rate of needing medical care (6.3%) and about 50% of those requiring intubation and ventilation (3.1%).

Essentially tallies up with the 'mainstream' version of events (highly infectious, large number of asymptomatic cases, a relatively high death rate, little native immunity, high hospitalisation rate leading to significant impact on health services, about 50% of serious hospital cases requiring ventilation).

Your point about people trying and failing to get the disease is not necessarily valid; one of the cabin-mates could have had the virus, given it to their compatriot, recovered and now tested negative while the compatriot tests positive.

[Duck ditch]

You can buy Soylent Green at Aldi as a suppository. 2 for £4.99
It didn’t do me any good.  I might as well have shoved them up my arse.

[Jenny P]

This is an interesting article with some data. It is a bi-modal group unfortunately, but the passenger group will all be over 60 pretty much.
It implies that 80% of cases were asymptomatic and also that about 40% just didn’t get it at all despite probably trying quite hard to do so, including many cases where people shared a cabin for a long period. Very prolonged exposure (viral load?) is implied as an issue (ships doctor got very ill).
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091
Anecdotally, a care home group I am getting info from is seeing mostly asymptomatic cases even amongst 80-90 year olds with dementia. In the absence of testing, it is a bit of a nightmare to manage as you might imagine.
The data would vaguely imply something like 12% of an exposed population would develop symptoms, which might not be that far off.

This is really a interesting item to read for me as I took the exactly the same cruise, on the same ship, from 7th. December 2019 to 1st. January 2020, staying in a solo cabin.  I flew to Buenos Aries and then on down to Ushuia to board the ship and back home by the reverse route at the end of the cruise.  As far as I know no-one reported sick at any time during the cruise although the passengers included a group of about 10 Chinese among the 179 on board (about 20+ different nationalities).  Virtually all the crew were Phillipino with an assortment of nationalities among the 20 or so scientists and expedition leaders.  A great deal of my time was spent out on deck, whale- and bird-watching, etc. but cabins (other than outside balcony suites) and all public spaces are air-conditioned with sealed window/portholes.

The overnight twelve and a half hour flight home from Buenos Aries to Amsterdam was completely full - probably at least 50% of the passengers being Chinese as this is apparently a standard route from South America back through Amsterdam and on to China.  There were large numbers of Chinese children on board, quite a number of whom didn't seem to be very well and were upset and crying all the time.  (A real nightmare flight with no sleep!)

A couple of weeks later, in late January (i.e. before Covid-19 made the news in GB) I became ill with a cough, some difficulty in breathing, headache, sore throat and conjunctivitis.  I thought it was a really nasty bout of flu (though I'd had a jab in the autumn) so dragged myself to the doctor and was given a week's course of very strong antibiotics plus stuff to clear the conjunctivitis - the Practice Nurse whom I saw agreed with me that it was probably flu.  The symptoms gradually eased during the following week and now I'm OK again.

I'm beginning to suspect that in late January I may actually have had Covid-19 after all but I have no way of proving this unless I can get tested for antibodies.  I'm socially isolating anyway, I live alone and am staying at home, except when I now travel to the Btitish Caving Library, on my own, to work alone for the day.

[2xw]

Was the wildlife worth it Jenny? Get any narwhals?

[Jenny P]

Was the wildlife worth it Jenny? Get any narwhals?

No, they're a northern species!  But loads of Hump-backs very close to the ship plus Orcas and others at a distance.  Huge pods of dolphins playing round ship and, in particular, round the tender boats at some sites when we went ashore.  Definitely a bucket list trip and quite unlike the usual sort of cruise (which I did try once and hated).  South Georgia is something else again - beyond spectacular - and Blue Whales are now being seen in the seas round there again with fur seals and elephant seals in huge breeding colonies on shore.

Bird life was amazing, both ashore and at sea: penguins by the hundreds of thousands on South Georgia and albatrosses, petrels and umpteen other species following the ship.

[Duck ditch]

Sounds spectacular jennyp.  Especially the bird life. Very jealous.   I hope you have had the virus and recovered.  It would be great to get that particular albatross off your back.

[Jenny P]

Gotta get tested to be able to prove it though!  Still worth it, even if I did get Covid-19 - trip of a lifetime!

[mrodoc]

Interesting to see there has now been a "proper" study on the effect of sunlight on the virus. The plots below show the inactivation rates for simulated sunlight (approx. winter solstice in Spain) vs. darkness. It suggests the virus would be able to last a lot longer in low-light conditions so is certainly relevant to caving, if not necessarily significant.

"The present study provides the first evidence that sunlight may rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, suggesting that surface persistence, and subsequently exposure risk, may vary significantly between indoor and outdoor environments."

but think how happy you will be when you get out into the sunshine!