That’s a log scale, so the viral load drops by a factor of 30 in 20 mins in sunlight? And if you believed that was a anything like a straight line, down to zero in well less than an hour?
It implies that 80% of cases were asymptomatic and also that about 40% just didn’t get it at all despite probably trying quite hard to do so, including many cases where people shared a cabin for a long period. Very prolonged exposure (viral load?) is implied as an issue (ships doctor got very ill).https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091
This is an interesting article with some data. It is a bi-modal group unfortunately, but the passenger group will all be over 60 pretty much.It implies that 80% of cases were asymptomatic and also that about 40% just didn’t get it at all despite probably trying quite hard to do so, including many cases where people shared a cabin for a long period. Very prolonged exposure (viral load?) is implied as an issue (ships doctor got very ill).https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091Anecdotally, a care home group I am getting info from is seeing mostly asymptomatic cases even amongst 80-90 year olds with dementia. In the absence of testing, it is a bit of a nightmare to manage as you might imagine. The data would vaguely imply something like 12% of an exposed population would develop symptoms, which might not be that far off.
Was the wildlife worth it Jenny? Get any narwhals?
Interesting to see there has now been a "proper" study on the effect of sunlight on the virus. The plots below show the inactivation rates for simulated sunlight (approx. winter solstice in Spain) vs. darkness. It suggests the virus would be able to last a lot longer in low-light conditions so is certainly relevant to caving, if not necessarily significant."The present study provides the first evidence that sunlight may rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, suggesting that surface persistence, and subsequently exposure risk, may vary significantly between indoor and outdoor environments."
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